LIB 8.2%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Constance, since 2011.
Geography
South-eastern NSW. Bega covers all of Eurobodalla and Bega Valley shires. The seat covers the towns of Bega, Eden, Batemans Bay and Moruya.
History
Bega in its current form has existed since 1988. It has always been held by the Liberal Party. A seat of the same name also existed from 1894 to 1920.
The seat was won in 1988 by the Liberal Party’s Russell Smith. He held the seat until his retirement in 2003.
Andrew Constance has held Bega since 2003 for the Liberal Party. Constance has served as a minister since 2011, and as Minister for Transport since the 2015 election.
Candidates
- Andrew Constance (Liberal)
- William Douglas (Greens)
- Leanne Atkinson (Labor)
- Joshua Shoobridge (Conservatives)
- Coral Anderson (Animal Justice)
- Eric Thomas (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
Assessment
While Bega has been continuously in Liberal hands since 1988, the seat has become more marginal relative to the rest of the state, and is now ranked twelfth most marginal on the Coalition list. If there was a large swing to Labor it could be vulnerable but it seems more likely that constance will hold on in 2019.
2015 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Constance | Liberal | 25,379 | 53.2 | -5.1 |
| Leanne Atkinson | Labor | 15,652 | 32.8 | +10.7 |
| Margaret Perger | Greens | 4,817 | 10.1 | -2.0 |
| Clyde Archard | No Land Tax | 1,138 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Ursula Bennett | Christian Democrats | 683 | 1.4 | -0.2 |
| Informal | 1,427 | 2.9 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Constance | Liberal | 26,023 | 58.2 | -10.3 |
| Leanne Atkinson | Labor | 18,696 | 41.8 | +10.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bega have been split into four parts. Each local government area in the electorate was split into north and south halves. The town of Bega is contained in Bega Valley North, and Batemans Bay is contained in Eurobodalla North.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51% in Bega Valley North to 61% in Bega Valley South.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 9.1% in the northern and southern ends of the seat to 13% in the northern end of Bega Valley.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Eurobodalla North | 9.1 | 58.6 | 9,656 | 20.3 |
| Bega Valley South | 9.1 | 60.9 | 8,414 | 17.7 |
| Bega Valley North | 13.2 | 51.2 | 6,743 | 14.1 |
| Eurobodalla South | 11.3 | 56.3 | 4,122 | 8.6 |
| Other votes | 12.4 | 59.2 | 7,660 | 16.1 |
| Pre-poll | 7.9 | 60.1 | 11,074 | 23.2 |
Election results in Bega at the 2015 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Interesting to compare the Bega map with the Eden-Monaro map. Mike Kelly won all bar two of the corresponding federal booths. And whilst EM doesn’t include Bateman’s Bay, it’s no more (or less) strong than Merimbula is.
One to watch.
I now see from the Gilmore profile that the northern part this district also has several booths that vote Labor federally. So that’s no comfort for Constance either.
yes my thoughts exactly………David did you calculate project Bega based on EM vote?
suspect better than 54% ALP
Following analysis it is my view is that if the E-M vote for Labor in 2016 held up in Bega, Labor would go close to winning. The difficulty is that Greens preferences would be required to flow strongly to Labor for them to win. However, optional proportional preferencing in NSW elections make this a difficult but not impossible task.
Good luck with that thought David. Optional preferntial kills any chance of anything other than a safe return of Constance – keep reviewing that algorithm with Mick I’m sure its fun times!!
He is the Transport minister in an accident prone government……. this must at least give the locals a reason to vote him out……. and certainly will give extra reasons to campaign against him
The railways minister from an electorate with no railways. What a time to be alive!
Likely Liberal hold – don’t entirely rule out Labor here though.
Where can I see the results for the Seat of Bega for 2019 now not the 2015 ones showing and when will I be able to see booth by booth in this seat