Barwon – NSW 2019

Humphries was an old style nat… think he had a personal vote………….. maybe knock off 5%….. the alp candidate is from Broken Hill so maybe can do better there which makes up roughly 25% of the seat…. but still is only worth an extra 1.5% if that……….. which on very heroic assumptions leaves a margin of 7%………hard to make that up

Sorry, But the ALP already won Broken Hill, in 2015. So they cannot improve much here

The days of the Labor voting Broken Hill dominating an entire state electorate are well gone. (2007 was the first state election the Nats won the seat containing BH.) Population growth in the west just hasn’t kept up with the rest of the state.

Political shifts elsewhere haven’t helped either. The 2PP map has a dark green 70 over Cobar. In Peter Black’s day it was a Labor town.

Outrage at the Nats over the mishandling of the Darling river may help the ALP to cause an upset in this seat.

the Nats are very much damaged…….. under Barnaby’s stewardship……… their reputation as honest social conservatives has gone…… he and Mr Broad have acted in a manner contrary to their position on family values….. the water issue has blown up in their face ………. Barnaby said something about stopping the Greenies by accommodating the irrigators….. what nonsense! The state government is complicit in this rubbish.The Darling river issue very much affects Barwon……. with No Mr Humphries( and his personal vote) He was an old style nat who voted against the ban on Greyhound racing…….. a swing in Broken Hill to say 70%….. a attitude of no default position of voting national to stop Labor and the ABB movement will mean the nationals if the fail to get very close to 50% primary will not get preferences…. then maybe a changed mp

Darriea Turley is a great candidate, the Nationals came under 50% last time, But if they come under 40% they have lost this seat for certain

I think the Nats will have the biggest losses in the NSW & Australian elections. They have forgotten who they stand for and there will be a number of seats like Barwon that fall. It will be the destruction of the Nats

Nationals candidates name sounds similar too someones, i cant remember who, but the name sounds famous.

Who is the Nat candidate……. Anthony ? Sinclair ? Hunt? Anderson? Barnaby’s brother?

I think this will be one of the surprises of the night, but I don’t think it’ll go to Labor.

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are running a strong campaign and will appeal to many disaffected former National voters. With Labor preferences, I see them winning this time.

had a look at figures when Peter Black won Broken Hill 75 to 80% alp vote Broken Hill 25% of the seat….. a much higher vote than 2015 could mean up to 2% extra add 2 to 3 % because of loss of Humphries personal vote

This is an Anti-Gun electorate, I don’t see Labour preferencing a Pro-Gun party

IF the Nats primary vote drops below 40% then this has the makings of a complete dog’s breakfast predicting an outcome. Whilst LAB may still dominate the Broken Hill vote, their vote is minimal elsewhere however their prefs may well determine the eventual winner

no Labor can win……… 25% other non alp and np……… labor have a good chance of being in the final 2

the result in this electorate will depend on The anyone but National vote…. if there is a big primary vote swing against them. Then as long as the other candidates stay solid and don’t exhaust….. then who ever makes the final 2 can indeed win. The more I think about it the nationals face a possible near wipe out to Labor the shooters and assorted independents….. remember that Barnaby poisons their vote in Tamworth and Northern Tablelands Rob Oakshot has influence in Port Macquarie etc

The electorate is not anti gun. Broken Hill has 18000 registered fire arms and millions of fish have died in the Darling River. The shooters and fishers party can win. I do not believe the labor candidate can win, she is not personally popular in Broken Hill.

Mick – I agree I think the Nationals are in trouble in both the NSW and Federal Elections. It is surprising the Nationals did not lose seats in the Victoria Election but their vote was down 0.8%.

I like how Menindee is already a 75% Labor booth. What’s it going to be this time?

The victor here is unknown… but this seat hasn’t had a serious campaign for 10 years at least…. areas like Bourke Cobar have room to improve…. as does Broken Hill at least 4% MORE maybe 10% more not out of the question… if yes then labor has an excellent chance of finishing in the final 2

James, the Nats lost two seats in the Victorian election – Mildura and Morwell were both lost to independents, a similar situation to NSW in which it is not Labor but minor parties and independents which pose the biggest threats.

public meeting being held in Narrabri………. guess who is not attending? the Nat party candidate
current court case about water theft

Barwon may just go to the shooters I can see alp threatening this seat

You get arrested for voting alp or greens in this part of nsw

Humphreys was good MP and only holds it by 12 percent

Keep an eye on the shooters they have a good chance

When the standalone Broken Hill seat was abolished these were the boundaries Labor wanted rather than lumping Broken Hill with Murray. Labor are campaigning here, but the ‘ancestrally Labor’ booths like Cobar would have to come home very big time for them to have any prospect. Seems very unlikely but there have been recent cases when Labor has surged dramatically in areas that looked long gone: Bundaberg in 2015 Qld for example.

Challenging election for the Nats as James says but in their favour is the NSW Nats have a much stronger, more energetic and charismatic leader in John Barilaro compared to the geriatric Peter Walsh in Victoria, who only hangs around due to a dearth of talent in the Victorian partyroom.

Geoff….. interesting….. the central part round Bourke cobar makes up another 25% of the seat…. combine with Broken Hill 50% of the seat gives labor a good chance of being second… The alp/ shooters and everyone else need to not exhaust and preference each other. I suspect the most likely result is this seat is lost by the nationals.

Daley was in Coonamble today. Barwon seems like a real reach but this might be indicative a broader rural backlash.

water water everywhere and not a drop to drink

Is the Nat candidate related to the former ABC Chairman?

Shooters win this in a canter. They’re the only ones on the ground, with SSA membership very high across the electorate. Their material is in most pubs across the northwest. They will finish above ALP on primaries and win on Naden’s preferences.

I think this election is a door into where rural politics is headed post-Nationals.

All the Nats have is big agribusiness, banks and mining backing them.

Galaxy Poll has a 2PP of 51-49 to the nats against SFF. With all the reservations against Seat polling included it does seem a large swing could be on the cards against the Nats

Latest market $195 Shooters $2-00 Nats This will be close but as I said earlier Nats in with a good chance Labor will not win Voters will slit their wrists before they vote for a socialist

You’re right Dave, they’d never vote for a socialist. After all, the socialists would wreck the Govt Diesel fuel rebate, the floor price for the AWB, the government owned ARTC, the subsidised roads, the regional public health network, the public schools, the ABC, the Bureau of Meteorology, the cheap labour from the Department of Immigration, the Building Better Regions Fund, the Federally funded Roads to Recovery program, ABARE, FSANZ, the police, the corrective services jobs and all those other socially funded bits of day-to-day life in the bush that the private sector do so well.

This may well end up close to an even vote for the sff alp and nats maybe 25% each with the rest polling the remaining 25%……. I would say the nats will lose the seat. but to whom?
the alp can win with the right alignment of preferences

Has anybody factored in the high Pre-Poll, Postal Vote and Absentee Vote returns so far lodged?
Pre-Poll figures for Broken Hill are running at between 430 to 480 per day. There are 7(?) other Early Voting Centres, plus declared institutions, hospitals, nursing homes etc.
By the day of the election approximately 1/4 of those who are eligible to vote will already have done so.
Now comes week #2, which traditionally has always been far more hectic.
Regardless of any trends or exit polls it will be the informal vote (+ or – as high as 10 o/o) that will make things interesting.

Informal vote? is difficult unless you chose to vote that way….. a vote is formal with a tick or a cross only
and people can number as few as one square or as many as the number of candidates… also a vote is formal to the extent a voters intention is clear…….eg 1 23333 is formal up to the second preference

There were a lot of blank ballots last time. I suspect Nat voters angry abt CSG.

Informal votes are deliberate …Cobar and Bourke in the central part can improve for labor.as can Broken Hill . Where will SFF get their votes from alp or nats mainly?

Possible Shooters gain – with the Nationals on the nose and the sitting MP retiring, this could go to the Shooters, and Labor will likely get a good swing to them in Broken Hill.

Is the shooters candidate running for federal and can we get the names of the rest of the candidates as none of us know!