Willoughby – NSW 2015

LIB 30.4%

Incumbent MP
Gladys Berejiklian, since 2003.

Geography
Lower North Shore of Sydney. The seat covers most of the City of Willoughby and small parts of North Sydney local government area. The seat covers the suburbs of Chatswood, Willoughby, Middle Cove, Northbridge, Naremburn, Crows Nest and Cammeray.

Map of Willoughby's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Willoughby’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Willoughby lost Castle Cove to Davidson and Lane Cove North to Lane Cove, and gained Crows Nest from North Sydney and Chatswood West from Lane Cove. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 30.8% to 30.4%.

History
The seat of Willoughby was first created in 1894. It was abolished for three elections in the 1920s and again for the 1988 election, but has existed at every other election. The seat has been dominated by the Liberal Party and its predecessors.

The seat was won in 1927 by Edward Sanders, an independent Nationalist. He joined the Nationalist Party and then the United Australia Party, and held the seat until his death in 1943.

The 1943 by-election was won by George Brain. He held the seat until his retirement in 1968.

Laurie McGinty won Willoughby for the Liberal Party in 1968. He served as a minister from 1973 to 1976. McGinty was defeated for preselection in 1978 by Nick Greiner. McGinty ran as an independent, and directed preferences to the ALP. The seat was won by Labor candidate Eddie Britt.

Britt was defeated in 1981 by the Liberal Party’s Peter Collins. He was re-elected in 1984. In 1988, Willoughby was renamed “Middle Harbour”, and Collins won the renamed seat. He became a minister following the 1988 election, moving up in the ranks to become Treasurer in 1993. In 1991, Middle Harbour was renamed Willoughby again.

When the Coalition lost power in 1995, Collins was elected Leader of the Opposition. He did not lead his party to an election, being replaced by Kerry Chikarovski in December 1998. He was re-elected to Willoughby in 1999 and retired in 2003.

Willoughby was won in 2003 by Gladys Berejiklian. She defeated independent Willoughby mayor Pat Reilly by only 144 votes. She was re-elected in 2007 and 2011.

Berejiklian has served as Minister for Transport since the Coalition took power in 2011, and was elected deputy leader of the Liberal Party in 2014.

Candidates

Assessment
Willoughby is a safe Liberal seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Gladys Berejiklian Liberal 30,644 69.4 +19.2 69.0
Robert McDougall Greens 7,260 16.4 +5.3 16.7
Chris Simpson Labor 5,287 12.0 -3.2 12.1
Philip Brown Christian Democrats 958 2.2 +0.5 2.2

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Redist
Gladys Berejiklian Liberal 31,709 78.1 77.7
Robert McDougall Greens 8,883 21.9 22.3

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Gladys Berejiklian Liberal 32,397 80.8 +9.8 80.4
Chris Simpson Labor 7,723 19.2 -9.8 19.6
Polling places in Willoughby at the 2011 NSW state election. North-East in green, South-east in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Willoughby at the 2011 NSW state election. North-East in green, South-east in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Willoughby have been split into three parts: north-east, south-east and west.

The Liberal Party won a large majority of the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 63% in the west to 72% in the south-east.

The Greens came second in all three areas ranging from 15% in the north-east to 17% in the west. Labor’s vote ranged from 10% in the south-east to 16% in the west.

Voter group LIB % GRN % ALP % Total % of votes
South-East 72.0 16.9 9.7 12,848 28.8
West 63.2 17.3 15.9 10,328 23.1
North-East 71.5 15.2 11.2 9,585 21.5
Other votes 68.7 17.2 12.0 11,881 26.6
Liberal primary votes in Willoughby at the 2011 NSW state election.
Liberal primary votes in Willoughby at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Willoughby at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Willoughby at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Willoughby at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Willoughby at the 2011 NSW state election.

4 COMMENTS

  2. Given the presence of Chatswood, I’m surprised Labor didn’t come close to victory here during the Carr years. Particularly given the swings we saw in seats like Ryde, Strathfield, Oatley and Kogarah.

  3. Well the independent probably soaked up the swing against the Liberals that might’ve otherwise put Labor closer in 2003 and 2007

  4. morgieb, strong Lib votes in suburbs like Castlecrag, Northbridge, Cremorne, Middle Cove and Castle Cove and other affluent areas would have drowned out any Labor victories (which I’m pretty sure it did have) in some booths around Chatswood and Artarmon in the Carr/Iemma years.

    Also in 2007 federal elections in Bradfield, Labor won a few booths in Chatswood and Hornsby by slim margins but nowhere as strong as areas like Ryde (Bennelong), Hurstville (Watson/Barton), Strathfield (Banks), etc.

    In 2007, Libs campaigned extra hard against Pat Reilly which would have diverted a lot of resources into a usually safe seat which had one state leader in Peter Collins only fell to Labor once in the last 50 years in 1978 (where Nick Greiner was the failed Lib candidate in his first attempt).

    Safe Lib retain given the strength of Gladys’ profile as well as her moderate credentials and popularity amongst ethnic voters.

    Labor possibly to regain second place but I wouldn’t be surprised if this doesn’t eventuate.

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