LIB 11.8%
Incumbent MP
Chris Spence, since 2011.
Geography
Central Coast. The Entrance covers areas on the southern side of Lake Tuggerah, including the suburbs of The Entrance, Bateau Bay, Killarney Vale, Tuggerah and Wyoming and parts of Narara and Berkeley Vale. Most of the seat’s population lies in Wyong Shire, with part in the City of Gosford.
Redistribution
The Entrance shifted north, losing Narara to Gosford and gaining part of Berkeley Vale from Wyong. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 12.5% to 11.8%.
History
The seat of The Entrance has existed since the 1988 election. Prior to that period, the area covered by The Entrance had been covered by the seats of Gosford, Wyong, Munmorah and Tuggerah.
It was won in 1988 by the Liberal Party’s Bob Graham, despite the seat having a notional Labor majority.
In 1991, Graham defeated the ALP’s Grant McBride by only 116 votes, and the result was thrown out by the Court of Disputed Returns in December 1991. The Liberal Party’s hold on power was fragile, relying on the support of independent Tony Windsor to hold a majority. Following the decision in The Entrance, the Liberal Party was required to come to an arrangement with other independents.
In the ensuing by-election, McBride won the seat off Graham, with a 4.7% margin.
McBride was re-elected in The Entrance at the 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections. He served as a minister in the Labor state government from 2003 to 2007.
McBride retired in 2011, and The Entrance was won by Liberal candidate Chris Spence, who benefited from a 17.3% swing.
Spence stood aside from the Liberal Party in early 2014 after accusations were made at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that he had taken donations from a prohibited donor.
Candidates
Sitting independent (and ex-Liberal) MP Chris Spence is not running for re-election.
- Michael Sharpe (Liberal)
- Hadden Ervin (Christian Democratic Party)
- Scott Rickard (Greens)
- David Mehan (Labor)
- Sonia Lopreiato (No Land Tax)
Assessment
The Liberal Party won many seats off Labor in 2011, and many of these seats are expected to return to Labor. The Entrance is one of those seats the Liberal Party will be hoping to retain if they are to stay in government, but this will be made harder due to the issues around Chris Spence and ICAC.
2011 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Chris Spence | Liberal | 22,898 | 50.9 | +11.1 | 50.6 |
| David Mehan | Labor | 13,057 | 29.0 | -18.5 | 29.7 |
| Deidrie Jinks | Greens | 4,877 | 10.8 | +2.0 | 10.9 |
| Bob Mirovic | Christian Democrats | 2,083 | 4.6 | +4.6 | 4.5 |
| James Bond | Family First | 2,082 | 4.6 | +4.6 | 4.3 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Chris Spence | Liberal | 24,760 | 62.5 | +17.3 | 61.8 |
| David Mehan | Labor | 14,880 | 37.5 | -17.3 | 38.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in The Entrance were split into three parts: central, east and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 60.2% in the east to 64.4% in the west.
The Greens vote ranged from 9% in the east to 13.8% in the west.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 60.2 | 9.0 | 14,592 | 32.3 |
| West | 64.4 | 13.8 | 11,551 | 25.6 |
| Central | 61.4 | 10.6 | 6,784 | 15.0 |
| Other votes | 61.6 | 10.4 | 12,204 | 27.0 |
On 11.8%, this is on the upper edge of the seats that Labor might hope to win, but the ICAC stink surrounding the Libs in the central coast and Hunter might be enough to tip it over the edge.
Hard to call for now, although Spence’s scandal has made this already key seat even more crucial to watch.
As Frankston in last year’s Victorian election, and Dobell in the last federal election both demonstrated, once a corrupt MP is removed from the equation, voting habits generally return to normal. This being said, I think we’ll see a narrow Labor gain here.