South Coast – NSW 2015

LIB 20.1%

Incumbent MP
Shelley Hancock, since 2003.

Geography
South coast of NSW. The seat contains most of Shoalhaven council area, specifically those areas on the south side of the Shoalhaven river. The seat covers Nowra, Milton, Ulladulla, Sussex Inlet and Jervis Bay.

Redistribution
South Coast mostly stayed the same, but lost a north-western corner of the electorate, including West Nowra and Nowra Hill.

History
South Coast has existed as a seat since 1927. For most of that time the seat has been held by conservative parties, although it has been held by independents on a number of occasions. It was won by the ALP once only, at the 1999 election.

Henry Bate held the seat from 1927 to 1941, first as a Nationalist and then for the United Australia Party.

In 1941, Bate was defeated by independent candidate Rupert Beale. He died in office in 1942, and was succeeded by his son Jack Beale. The younger Beale was first elected as an independent, but became a member of the Liberal Party in 1948.

Beale became a minister in the Coalition state government in 1965, serving until his retirement in 1973.

He was succeeded in 1973 by John Hatton, the independent Shoalhaven shire president. He was re-elected following 1973 by very safe margins, and was once elected unopposed. He held his seat until the 1995 election. He was a renowned campaigner against corruption, and following the 1991 election he shared the balance of power. In this role he helped establish the Independent Commission Against Corruption, bring down Nick Greiner as Premier, and then establish the Wood Royal Commission into police corruption.

Hatton retired at the 1995 election. He announced in 2010 that he would head an independent team running for the Legislative Council.

The Liberal Party’s Eric Ellis won South Coast in 1995. He held it for one term, losing it in 1999 to ALP candidate Wayne Smith.

In 2003, Smith lost to the Liberal candidate, former Shoalhaven councillor Shelley Hancock. She was re-elected in 2007 and 2011.

Candidates

• Amanda Findley (Greens)
• Licio Mallia (No Land Tax)
• Fiona Phillips (Labor)
• Shelley Hancock (Liberal)
• Matt Rose (Christian Democratic Party)

Assessment
The Liberal margin in South Coast is just over 20%, which should be enough to hold on in the face of a possible large swing to Labor.

2011 election result

2011 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in South Coast have been split into three parts:

• Central – Currarong, Sussex Inlet, Vincentia and other areas around the Jervis Bay area.
• North – Nowra and Culburra Beach.
• South – Milton and Ulladulla.

The Liberal two-party-preferred vote ranged from 66.5% in the centre to 70.9% in the north.

The Greens vote ranged from 10.8% in the north to 18.4% in the south.