Newcastle – NSW 2015

LIB 2.5%

Incumbent MP
Tim Crakanthorp (ALP), since 2014.

Geography
Central Newcastle. The district of Newcastle covers the central suburbs of the City of Newcastle, including the CBD, Merewether, Hamilton, Tighes Hill, Broadmeadow, Stockton, Islington, Mayfield and Warabrook, as well as Sandgate, Kooragang and Fern Bay to the north of Newcastle.

Redistribution
Newcastle lost Waratah and Lambton to Wallsend and Adamstown to Charlestown, while gaining Fern Bay, Kooragang, Sandgate, Warabrook and the remainder of Mayfield from Port Stephens. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 2.6% to 2.5%.

History
Newcastle has existed as a district in the Legislative Assembly almost continuously since 1859. The seat elected a single MLA from 1859 until 1880, when it began electing a second MLA. It gained a third MLA in 1889. In 1891, Newcastle elected two Labor MLAs, some of the first Labor MPs in New South Wales.

In 1894, Newcastle was abolished when Legislative Assembly districts were redrawn. It was restored as a single-member district in 1904.

The seat was won in 1904 and 1907 by Liberal Reform candidates, but was won by the ALP’s Arthur Gardiner in 1910. He was re-elected in 1913, and in 1917 won re-election as an independent.

New South Wales electoral boundaries were radically redrawn before the 1920 election due to the creation of multi-member districts electing MLAs using proportional representation. Newcastle expanded to be a five-member district covering a much larger area than the previous single-member district.

While Gardiner was re-elected in 1920, Newcastle elected three Labor MLAs and one Nationalist that year. The ALP managed to win four out of five seats in Newcastle in 1925, and in 1927 single-member districts were restored, and Newcastle was reduced to its former size.

From 1927 to 2007, Newcastle elected Labor MPs at all but one election, with an independent winning the seat in 1988.

The seat was won in 1927 by Peter Connolly, who held the seat until 1935, when he lost preselection and retired.

The seat was won in 1935 by Frank Hawkins. He held the seat until 1968. He served as a minister in the state Labor government from 1950 until the party lost power in 1965.

The seat was won in 1968 by Newcastle City Council alderman Arthur Wade. He held the seat for the next twenty years.

In 1988, Wade retired in Newcastle. The ALP lost power in a massive landslide, and in Newcastle the seat was won by independent candidate and local real estate agent George Keegan.

Keegan lost in 1991 to the ALP’s Bryce Gaudry. He won re-election in 1995, 1999 and 2003.

Prior to the 2007 state election, the NSW Labor head office intervened in the seat, stripping Gaudry of his preselection in 2006 and preselecting NBN television newsreader Jodi McKay, despite Gaudry having the support of local party branches.

Gaudry announced that he would run as an independent in early 2007. In addition, the independent Lord Mayor of Newcastle, John Tate, also ran for the seat.

At the 2007 state election, the ALP’s margin in the seat was cut from the previous 14.9% margin to only 1.2%. The Liberal Party polled less than 10%, with John Tate polling 24% and Gaudry 21%. The Greens also outpolled the Liberals. After preferences from the Liberals, Greens and Gaudry, Tate came within 1.2% of defeating McKay.

In 2011, McKay was again challenged by John Tate, as well as Liberal candidate Tim Owen. Tate was expected to be the main opposition to McKay. Tate’s vote, however, collapsed from 34.1% to 11.6%. Tim Owen increased the Liberal vote from 9.8% to 36.7% of the primary vote, and won the seat over McKay by a 2.6% margin.

Tim Owen stepped down from the Liberal Party and announced that he would not re-contest Newcastle in May 2014 after admitting at ICAC that he had probably received donations from prohibited donors. In August, he resigned from Parliament after admitting that he had lied to ICAC.

The ensuing by-election was won by Labor candidate Tim Crakanthorp, a Newcastle city councillor, with an 11% swing.

Candidates

• Michael Osborne (Greens)
• Milton Caine (Christian Democratic Party)
• Jasmin Addison (No Land Tax)
• Karen Howard (Liberal)
• Sam Reich (Cyclists Party)
• Steve O’Brien (Socialist Alliance)
• Tim Crakanthorp (Labor)

Assessment
Winning Newcastle was a high water mark for the Liberal Party in 2011. With Labor having won the seat back at the recent by-election, they should have no trouble retaining Newcastle in 2015.

2011 election result

2011 two-party-preferred result

2011 by-election result

2011 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Newcastle have been split into four areas: north-east, north-west, south-east and south-west. These areas are defined slightly differently for the 2011 election and the 2014 by-election due to the redistribution.

The Liberal Party won a slim 50.7% majority in the south-west and a large 63.7% majority in the south-east. The ALP won 56.4% in the north-west and 58.2% in the north-east.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 10.3% in the north-east to 18% in the north-west.

The vote for independent John Tate ranged from 7.5% in the north-west to 12.7% in the south-west. Tate was not on the ballot for some booths in the north-west and north-east.

At the 2014 by-election, the Labor primary vote was over 40% in three areas, but only 27% in the south-east.

Conservative independent Karen Howard came second, with a vote ranging from 15% in the north-east to 36.5% in the south-east.

The Greens vote ranged from 18.2% in the south-west to 22.8% in the north-east.

2011 election breakdown

2014 by-election breakdown