Liverpool – NSW 2015

ALP 14.0%

Incumbent MP
Paul Lynch, since 1995.

Geography
South-Western Sydney. The seat covers the Liverpool CBD and parts of the City of Liverpool to the west of the Liverpool centre, including the suburbs of Ashcroft, Cartwright, Green Valley, Hinchinbrook, Horningsea Park, Hoxton Park, Miller and Warwick Farm.

Map of Liverpool's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Liverpool’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Liverpool gained Horningsea Park and Hoxton Park from Macquarie Fields, and lost Bonnyrigg Heights to Cabramatta and Cecil Hills, West Hoxton and Kemps Creek to Mulgoa. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 14.7% to 14%.

History
The electoral district of Liverpool has existed since the 1950 election. It has always been held by the Labor Party.

The seat was first won in 1950 by then-Premier James McGirr. He had sat in the Legislative Assembly since 1922, most recently as Member for Bankstown.

McGirr retired in 1952, and the Liverpool by-election was won by Jack Mannix. He became a minister in the Labor government in 1960, serving as Justice Minister until the government’s defeat in 1965.

Mannix retired in 1971, and he was replaced by Liverpool councillor George Paciullo. Paciullo served as a minister from 1983 to 1988. When Labor lost power in 1988 he was considered a contender for party leader, but following Carr’s appointment, he retired in 1989.

The 1989 by-election saw a bitter preselection battle between Paul Lynch and Mark Latham. This was resolved by preselecting former Health Minister Peter Anderson. Anderson had held Nepean from 1978 to 1981, and Penrith from 1981 until a shock loss at the 1988 election. He had held ministerial office since 1982.

Anderson won the by-election in 1989, and was considered a possible future leader of the ALP. He failed to gain the support of local Labor members, and in 1995 lost preselection to Paul Lynch.

Lynch won the seat in 1995, and was re-elected in 1999, 2003 and 2007. Following the 2007 election he was appointed as a minister in the Labor government. Lynch served as a minister until the 2011 election, when he was re-elected for a fifth term.

Candidates

Assessment
Liverpool is the safest Labor seat in the state, and their hold on the seat should strengthen in 2015.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Paul Lynch Labor 22,223 51.4 -13.5 51.2
Mazhar Hadid Liberal 11,883 27.5 +9.5 27.6
Michael Byrne Independent 3,740 8.7 +8.7 7.0
Matt Attia Christian Democrats 2,916 6.7 +2.6 6.5
Signe Westerberg Greens 2,451 5.7 +1.7 5.2
Others 2.5

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Paul Lynch Labor 24,276 64.7 -12.2 64.0
Mazhar Hadid Liberal 13,241 35.3 +12.2 36.0
Polling places in Liverpool at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in yellow, Green Valley in blue, Hoxton Park in red, Liverpool in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Liverpool at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in yellow, Green Valley in blue, Hoxton Park in red, Liverpool in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Liverpool has been split into four parts: Liverpool in the east, Green Valley in the west, Hoxton Park in the south-west and “Central”, including Ashcroft, Cartwright, Miller and Sadleir.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 56% in Hoxton Park to 70% in Liverpool.

Voter group ALP 2PP % IND % CDP % GRN % Total % of votes
Green Valley 68.3 9.1 6.8 5.2 9,621 23.0
Hoxton Park 56.1 3.1 7.1 4.0 9,204 22.0
Liverpool 69.6 8.9 5.8 6.4 7,897 18.9
Central 68.6 8.4 4.3 4.0 5,049 12.1
Other votes 61.4 6.5 7.3 6.0 9,979 23.9
Two-party-preferred votes in Liverpool at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Liverpool at the 2011 NSW state election.

6 COMMENTS

  2. I’m expecting Liverpool to stay in Labor hands. My prediction is at least 71.4 2PP to Lynch. There was a rumour that Mannoun would run in Liverpool this time, but Hadid is running again. Heaven knows why. Shows the lack of strength in the Liverpool Liberal Party. The main question to ask, is whether this is Lynch’s final election?

  4. Very ethnic, underprivileged, links to manufacturing industries, etc. Basically a macroism of most of Labor’s base, as well as a weak Liberal candidate and a reasonably strong Labor one.

  5. This was the only seat Labor won a majority of the primary vote in at the 2011 election. I’d guess Lakemba will be the safest Labor seat after March 28, but this will be in the top few.

  6. Labor’s rock-bottom base is now non-Anglo people working in low-wage manufacturing and service jobs (if working at all) and living in public housing. Even the biggest Labor disaster can’t shake them loose. They know the Libs want to cut their wages and/or benefits, and they see the Greens as upper-class Anglos lecturing them about their lifestyles. Liverpool, Lakemba, Cabramatta are their suburbs, and these seats will increasingly elect non-Anglo Labor members with strong bases in the various ethnic communities. Lynch is a relic of the old Irish-Catholic NSW Labor days. When he goes he’ll be replaced by whoever the local ethnic boss is.

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