Lane Cove – NSW 2015

LIB 27.3%

Incumbent MP
Anthony Roberts, since 2003.

Geography
Lower north shore of Sydney. Lane Cove covers the entirety of Lane Cove and Hunters Hill council areas, as well as eastern parts of the Ryde council area, and a small part of the Willoughby council area. The seat covers Gladesville, Greenwich, Hunters Hill, Longueville, Linley Point, Putney and Woolwich and parts of Artarmon, East Ryde, Lane Cove and St Leonards.

Map of Lane Cove's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Lane Cove’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Lane Cove lost Chatswood West to Willoughby and gained the remainder of Lane Cove North from Willoughby, as well as gaining a small area from Ryde. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 27.7% to 27.3%.

History
The seat of Lane Cove first existed from 1904 to 1913. It has existed continuously since 1927. With the exception of a single election in the 1940s, it has reliably elected members of the Liberal Party and its predecessors.

The seat was held from 1930 to 1944 by Herbert FitzSimons, first a member of the Nationalists, then the United Australia Party. He retired at the 1944 election, and the seat was won by the ALP’s Henry Woodward. The election came at a time of deep division between conservative forces, and candidates stood from both the Democratic Party and the Liberal Democrats. Preference leakage allowed Woodward to win narrowly.

By 1947, the previously divided forces had united in the Liberal Party, and Woodward was defeated by Ken McCaw.

McCaw held the seat for the Liberal Party for the next 28 years. He served as Attorney-General from 1965 until his retirement in 1975.

The 1975 by-election was won by John Dowd. He served as Liberal leader from 1981 to 1983. He also served as Attorney-General from 1988 to 1991.

At the 1991 election, Lane Cove was won by Kerry Chikarovski. She served as a minister from 1992 to 1995, and as Liberal deputy leader from 1994 to 1995. She became Leader of the Opposition in 1998 and led the Coalition to a massive landslide defeat at the 1999 election.

Chikarovski was replaced as Opposition Leader in 2002, and she retired at the 2003 election.

Lane Cove has been held since 2003 by Anthony Roberts. Roberts has served as a minister since 2011.

Candidates

Assessment
Lane Cove is a safe Liberal seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Anthony Roberts Liberal 28,350 65.6 +13.4 65.6
Keith McIlroy Greens 7,646 17.7 +3.0 17.5
Mario Tsang Labor 6,046 14.0 -10.5 13.9
Esther Heng Christian Democrats 1,174 2.7 +0.4 2.6
Others 0.3

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Anthony Roberts Liberal 29,556 75.7
Keith McIlroy Greens 9,496 24.3

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Anthony Roberts Liberal 30,093 77.3 +15.0 77.3
Mario Tsang Labor 8,819 22.7 -15.0 22.7
Polling places in Lane Cove at the 2011 NSW state election. Gladesville in yellow, Greenwich in orange, Hunters Hill in green, Lane Cove in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Lane Cove at the 2011 NSW state election. Gladesville in yellow, Greenwich in orange, Hunters Hill in green, Lane Cove in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Lane Cove have been split into four parts: Gladesville, Greenwich, Hunters Hill and Lane Cove.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the primary vote in all four areas, ranging from 63% in Lane Cove to 70% in Hunters Hill.

The Greens came second, with a vote ranging from 14% in Gladesville to 23% in Greenwich. The Labor vote ranged from 9% in Greenwich to 17% in Gladesville.

Voter group LIB % GRN % ALP % Total % of votes
Gladesville 65.5 13.6 17.1 12,600 27.7
Lane Cove 63.3 20.6 13.4 11,151 24.5
Hunters Hill 69.8 16.3 12.1 6,136 13.5
Greenwich 65.8 22.9 9.2 4,546 10.0
Other votes 65.8 17.5 13.7 11,053 24.3
Liberal primary votes in Lane Cove at the 2011 NSW state election.
Liberal primary votes in Lane Cove at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Lane Cove at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Lane Cove at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Lane Cove at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Lane Cove at the 2011 NSW state election.

4 COMMENTS

  3. Oh and another thing, is it just me or has this seat grown in the last 20 years?

    Which is highly surprising given high population growth in this part of Sydney especially in the growth of apartments.

    It seems that Lane Cove has marched westward into Ryde in the last redistribution and pretty much now resembles the abolished Gladesville and Lane Cove combined (minus parts of Lindfield).

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