Heathcote – NSW 2015

LIB 19.0%

Incumbent MP
Lee Evans, since 2011.

Geography
Southern Sydney and the Illawarra. Heathcote includes parts of the Sutherland Shire and the City of Wollongong. Heathcote covers the suburbs of Sutherland, Woronora Heights, Engadine, Yarrawarrah, Bundeena, Bangor, Menai and Heathcote and stretching into the northern suburbs of Wollongong.

Map of Heathcote's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Heathcote’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Heathcote shifted north, gaining Bangor and Menai from the seat of Menai, and losing the Wollongong suburbs of Austinmer, Bulli, Coledale and Thirroul to Keira. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 12.9% to 19%.

History
Heathcote was first created as an electoral district in 1971. The seat was abolished in 1991, and restored in 1999. In that time it has only been won by the Liberal Party twice, in 1988 and 2011. It has been won by the Labor Party at every other election.

Heathcote was first won in 1971 by Rex Jackson. He had previously served as Member for Bulli since 1955. The 1970 redistribution shifted Bulli north, deeper into Sutherland and losing parts of Wollongong, and following this Bulli was renamed Heathcote. Jackson joined the ministry when Labor won power in 1976, and became Minister for Corrective Services in 1981. He left the ministry in 1983 and resigned from Parliament in 1986. He was convicted of accepting bribes in relation to the early release of prisoners, and spent over three years in a prison which he had previously had ministerial responsibility for.

Jackson had run in the January 1987 by-election as an independent, but polled only 6%, losing to the ALP’s Ian McManus.

The redistribution for the 1988 election shifted Heathcote north, deeper into Sutherland and further out of Wollongong. McManus shifted to the newly-created Labor seat of Burragorang, which covered parts of Wollondilly Shire and northern suburbs of Wollongong. The Liberal Party’s Allan Andrews won Heathcote.

The 1991 redistribution reduced the size of the Assembly, and Heathcote and Burragorang were both abolished, and the seat of Bulli was restored in the northern suburbs of Wollongong. Andrews ran in the seat of Coogee, losing by 600 votes to the Labor candidate. McManus won the seat of Bulli.

McManus was re-elected in Bulli in 1995 and became a Parliamentary Secretary in the newly-elected Carr government.

The 1999 redistribution restored the seat of Heathcote, and again abolished Bulli. McManus once again was elected Member for Heathcote, and served for one final term before retiring in 2003.

Heathcote was won in 2003 by the ALP’s Paul McLeay, son of federal MP Leo McLeay. McLeay was immediately appointed as a parliamentary secretary in 2003. He became a minister in 2009, but resigned in 2010 after admitting to having used parliamentary computers to access gambling and pornography websites.

In 2011, Paul McLeay lost Heathcote to Liberal candidate Lee Evans with a 21.7% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Assuming a uniform swing, Heathcote is the seat Labor needs to win to give them a majority in the Parliament. This makes Heathcote important, but considering Labor’s current polling has them falling short of a majority it seems unlikely that Labor will regain Heathcote, particularly considering the redistribution pushing Heathcote out of Labor-voting Wollongong suburbs and further into the Liberal-voting Sutherland Shire.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Lee Evans Liberal 20,700 47.0 +14.8 54.6
Paul McLeay Labor 10,074 22.9 -20.3 21.3
Phil Smith Greens 6,972 15.8 +1.3 11.1
Greg Petty Independent 3,471 7.9 +7.9 5.5
Chris Atlee Christian Democrats 1,631 3.7 -2.0 4.3
Peter Bussa Independent 1,225 2.8 +2.8 1.9
Others 1.3

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Lee Evans Liberal 22,939 62.9 +21.7 69.0
Paul McLeay Labor 13,512 37.1 -21.7 31.0
Polling places in Heathcote at the 2011 NSW state election. Engadine in blue, Heathcote-Bundeena in green, Helensburgh in red, Menai in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Heathcote at the 2011 NSW state election. Engadine in blue, Heathcote-Bundeena in green, Helensburgh in red, Menai in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Heathcote have been split into four parts. Polling places in the City of Wollongong have been grouped as “Helensburgh”. The scattered booths in southern parts of Sutherland Shire have been grouped as “Heathcote-Bundeena”, with those polling places in the urban Sutherland suburbs at the northern end of the seat were split into Menai and Engadine.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 55.6% in Helensburgh to 73.5% in Menai.

The Greens vote is much higher in the south, polling 15.3% in Heathcote-Bundeena and 16.6% in Helensburgh, compared to 9.1% in Menai and 9.7% in Engadine.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Menai 73.5 9.1 16,592 33.4
Engadine 69.0 9.7 13,431 27.1
Heathcote-Bundeena 64.6 15.3 4,830 9.7
Helensburgh 55.6 16.6 4,403 8.9
Other votes 31.6 11.9 10,352 20.9
Two-party-preferred votes in Heathcote at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Heathcote at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Heathcote at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Heathcote at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in northern parts of Heathcote at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in northern parts of Heathcote at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in northern parts of Heathcote at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in northern parts of Heathcote at the 2011 NSW state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Just wanted to jump in here and ask why the tiny section of Wollondilly LGA which must be part of Darkes Forest is still included in Heathcote and not Wollondilly?

    It’s very strange as these people would vote in the federal electorate of Macarthur.

    Does anybody know how many electors would live in this part? Less than 10 perhaps?

  2. My prediction: Likely Liberal hold, given the redistribution. In my opinion, Heathcote, in its current configuration, won’t go back to Labor until next time they win government.

  4. I’ve known Lee Evans for years and he is a thoroughly decent bloke, and an excellent local representative. I’d go so far as to say the good people of Heathcote are lucky to have someone of his calibre. Sorry if that sounds a bit like an ad, but in my observation good-quality politicians are very rare! (This isn’t party-political: I’m not a party member, and I see plenty of dills on all sides)

  5. the problem here is again the inflated Margin……. the swing exceeds the new Margin
    19% would be normally a big enough barrier to stop a change…… but the 2011 election is a once in the life time result.. Engadine is not 69% liberal territory under normal circumstances.
    The ALP candidate is excellent….. probably more competent than the prev ALP member.
    BUt I don’t know how this should go……… can an inflated margin measure be created? cf state average over a few elections.?

Comments are closed.