Coffs Harbour – NSW 2015

NAT 27.3%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Fraser, since 1990.

Geography
North coast of NSW. The seat covers the entirety of the City of Coffs Harbour, with the local government boundaries aligned to the electoral boundary.

Map of Coffs Harbour's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Coffs Harbour’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
The seat of Coffs Harbour shifted north, taking in Red Rock and Corindi Beach from Clarence, and losing Urunga and Raleigh to Oxley. These changes aligned Coffs Harbour with the council boundaries. These changes made very little difference to the seat’s margin.

History
Coffs Harbour has existed since 1981, and has always been held by the National Party.

The seat was first won in 1981 by Matt Singleton. He had been the Member for Clarence since 1971, but moved to Coffs Harbour when the redistribution made his former seat a notional Labor seat. He briefly served as a minister from 1988 to 1989, and retired in 1990.

The 1990 Coffs Harbour by-election was won by National Party candidate Andrew Fraser, and he has held the seat ever since. Fraser is a controversial figure. He achieved notoriety in 2005 when he chased and grabbed Labor minister Joe Tripodi on the floor of the Legislative Assembly. He served briefly as deputy leader of the National Party from 2007 to 2008, and now sits on the backbenches.

Candidates

Assessment
Coffs Harbour is a safe Nationals seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Fraser Nationals 29,798 66.1 +14.1 65.9
David Quinn Labor 6,392 14.2 -6.5 14.2
Rodney Degens Greens 4,749 10.5 +3.1 10.5
Paul Templeton Independent 2,575 5.7 +5.7 5.5
Deborah Lions Christian Democrats 1,591 3.5 -0.2 3.6
Others 0.4

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Fraser Nationals 31,956 77.2 +9.6 77.3
David Quinn Labor 9,421 22.8 -9.6 22.7
Polling places in Coffs Harbour at the 2011 NSW state election. Coffs Harbour in blue, North in yellow, South in red, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Coffs Harbour at the 2011 NSW state election. Coffs Harbour in blue, North in yellow, South in red, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Coffs Harbour have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Coffs Harbour urban area have been grouped together, and the remainder have been split into those to the north, south and west of Coffs Harbour.

The Nationals won a large majority of the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 60% in the north to 66.9% in Coffs Harbour.

Labor’s vote ranged from 13.3% in Coffs Harbour to 16.8% in the north. The Greens vote ranged from 9.1% in the south to 13.8% in the west.

Voter group NAT % ALP % GRN % Total % of votes
Coffs Harbour 66.9 13.3 9.8 14,449 33.3
South 66.1 15.0 9.1 9,167 21.2
North 60.0 16.8 13.4 6,555 15.1
West 65.2 13.4 13.8 1,994 4.6
Other votes 68.0 13.1 10.2 11,161 25.8
Two-party-preferred votes in Coffs Harbour at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Coffs Harbour at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Coffs Harbour at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Coffs Harbour at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Coffs Harbour urban area at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Coffs Harbour urban area at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in the Coffs Harbour urban area at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in the Coffs Harbour urban area at the 2011 NSW state election.

3 COMMENTS

  2. Oh to make this seat more marginal. The Nats have again promised funding for the Pacific Highway bipass but no time frame and given it’s always been a strong Nats seat why do we wonder why the bipass is their last priority!

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