Charlestown – NSW 2015

LIB 9.2%

Incumbent MP
Jodie Harrison, since 2014.

Geography
Hunter region of NSW. Charlestown covers northeastern parts of the City of Lake Macquarie, just south of Newcastle. Suburbs include Charlestown, Gateshead, Kahibah, Redhead and Warners Bay. The electorate also covers the suburbs of Adamstown and Kotara in the City of Newcastle.

Redistribution
Charlestown lost Cardiff and Cardiff South to Lake Macquarie, gained the remainder of Adamstown from Newcastle and gained Redhead from Swansea. These changes cut the Liberal margin based on 2011 results from 9.9% to 9.2%.

History
The seat of Charlestown was first created for the 1971 election. A change in redistribution rules saw the lower Hunter included in the central zone, leading to a loss of a Newcastle seat. Kahibah and Hamilton were merged and Charlestown was created in their place. Charlestown was held by the ALP continuously from its creation in 1971 until the 2011 election.

The first member for Charlestown was the ALP’s Jack Stewart, who had previously held the seat of Kahibah from 1957 until its abolition in 1971. He held the seat for 18 months until his death in 1972.

The 1972 by-election was won by the ALP’s Richard Face. He held the seat for the next thirty years until his retirement in 2003, serving as Minister for Gaming and Racing from 1995 to 2003.

In 2003, the seat was won by the ALP’s Matthew Morris. In 2007, Morris retained his seat with a 7% margin over Lake Macquarie councillor Paul Scarfe, running as an independent.

In 2011, Morris was defeated by Liberal candidate Andrew Cornwell, with a massive 25% primary vote swing to the Liberal Party, partly due to the absence of independent candidate Paul Scarfe.

Andrew Cornwell resigned first from the Liberal Party and then from Parliament in 2014 over accusations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that he had accepted donations from a prohibited donor.

The 2014 by-election was won by Labor candidate Jodie Harrison, the Mayor of Lake Macquarie, with a 20% primary vote swing.

Candidates

• Jane Oakley (Greens)
• Arjay Martin (Independent)
• Jodie Harrison (Labor)
• Tania Morvillo (No Land Tax)
• Brian Tucker (Christian Democratic Party)
• Jason Pauling (Liberal)
• Luke Arms (Independent)

Assessment
If you just look at the margin based on the 2011 election, Charlestown is a key marginal seat that will be fiercely fought over. The circumstances of Andrew Cornwell’s departure and Jodie Harrison’s win in the by-election, however, make it extremely likely that Labor will retain Charlestown in 2015.

2011 election result

2011 two-party-preferred result

2014 by-election result

2014 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Charlestown have been broken up slightly differently for the 2011 results (using new boundaries) and the 2014 by-election results (using old boundaries).

For the new boundaries, the electorate was split into central, north and south.

At the 2011 election, the Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.1% in the centre to 63.8%.

The Greens vote ranged from 7.9% in the south to 10.3% in the north. The vote for independent candidate Barry Johnston came fourth, with a vote ranging from 4.9% in the north to 9.2% in the centre.

For the 2014 by-election results, the seat was split into five areas, based on key suburbs: Cardiff in the north-west, Charlestown in the centre, Gateshead in the south, Kotara in the north and Warners Bay in the south-west.

Labor’s primary vote ranged from 42.5% in Kotara to 58.2% in Gateshead.

The Greens came second, with a vote ranging from 12% in Cardiff to 16.8% in Charlestown.

Independent candidate Luke Arms came third, with a vote ranging from 6.6% in Gateshead to 16.7% in Warners Bay.

2011 election breakdown

2014 by-election breakdown