ALP 6.9%
Incumbent MP
David Harris, since 2007.
Geography
Central Coast. The seat of Wyong covers parts of Wyong Shire, including Wyong itself, Toukley, Gorokan, Berkeley Vale and Chittaway Bay.
History
The electoral district of Wyong was first created for the 1962 election. It was abolished in 1973 and was restored in 1988. In that time it has always been held by the ALP.
Wyong was first won in 1962 by Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, Ray Maher. He had previously served as Member for North Sydney since 1953, but moved to Wyong upon North Sydney’s abolition. Maher resigned as Speaker in early 1965 after being accused of sexual harassment, and he retired from Parliament at the 1965 election.
Maher was succeeded in 1965 by the ALP’s Harry Jensen. Jensen had served as Lord Mayor of Sydney since 1957, and had before that served as Mayor of Randwick.
In 1973, Wyong was abolished, and Jensen moved to the seat of Munmorah. He served as a minister in the newly-elected Labor state government from 1976 until he retired in 1981, when Munmorah itself was abolished.
Munmorah was replaced in 1981 by the seat of Tuggerah, which was won by the ALP’s Harry Moore.
In 1988, Tuggerah was broken up into Wyong and The Entrance, and Moore was elected as Member for Wyong.
Moore retired in 1991, and was succeeded by Paul Crittenden, and Crittenden held Wyong until his retirement in 2007.
Wyong was won in 2007 by the ALP’s candidate, former school principal David Harris.
Candidates
- David Harris (Labor)
- Roger Fernandez (Christian Democratic Party)
- Sue Wynn (Greens)
- Darren Webber (Liberal)
Political situation
Wyong is the ALP’s safest seat on the Central Coast, but the 7% margin is certainly vulnerable to the Liberal party in current circumstances.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Harris | ALP | 18,006 | 42.5 | -12.6 |
| Ben Morton | LIB | 13,363 | 31.6 | -1.5 |
| Greg Best | IND | 6,058 | 14.3 | +14.3 |
| Scott Rickard | GRN | 2,138 | 5.0 | +0.1 |
| Richard Spark | AAFI | 1,627 | 3.8 | +2.3 |
| Adrian Loel | CDP | 1,151 | 2.7 | +0.5 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Harris | ALP | 20,217 | 56.9 | -5.4 |
| Ben Morton | LIB | 15,342 | 43.1 | +5.4 |
Booth breakdown
The seat of Wyong has been divided into five areas. Toukley covers the three booths on the eastern shore of Lake Tuggerah. The vast majority of voters in the seat lie on the western shore of the lake. Those voters have been grouped into four areas, from south to north they are labelled as Berkeley Vale, Wyong, Central and North.
The ALP won a majority in all areas, varying from over 59% in the north to 54% in the centre of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | IND % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 4.6 | 14.7 | 59.4 | 11,916 | 28.1 |
| Central | 4.9 | 15.4 | 54.0 | 7,266 | 17.2 |
| Berkeley Vale | 5.6 | 12.3 | 56.1 | 5,301 | 12.5 |
| Toukley | 5.1 | 17.2 | 58.1 | 4,827 | 11.4 |
| Wyong | 5.0 | 12.3 | 54.3 | 4,556 | 10.8 |
| Other votes | 5.4 | 13.5 | 56.8 | 8,477 | 20.0 |
Libs sucess federally on the central coast in 2001 and 2004 suggests that Libs will win this easily.
Geoff – I don’t agree. Labor could easily hold on to this compared to Gosford or The Entrance. I see this as a 50/50 call.
Geoff.
In Dobell and also Shortland, Labor had extremely strong results the 2010 election. Defying national swings against Labor, Dobell increased Labor’s Margin by 1.1%.
So your basing that the Libs will win this easy on the 2001 and 2004 Federal results is an unfounded statement.
This seat could swing either way, Darren Webber is not well known in this seat. My relative who had voted liberal at Federal and State elections for a long time (despite coming from a Labor family) said she can’t vote for Darren, because she doesn’t know anything about him.
He is not a strong candidate at all. If John McNamara who is a local councilor couldn’t win Dobell, I don’t give Darren much hope. However, in regards to Gosford and the Entrance. Labor is in deep trouble. When Grant and Marie called it quits, I said that Labor was stuffed in those seats, however, as I said before. This one could go either way.
@Daniel – agree
Labor to hold this.
Harris is very busy – Webber is missing except some signage.
Harris has distanced himself from Labor brand and will be re-elected as a ‘local member’. This was the one-shot Lib’s had of winning this seat & their local campaign blew it.
Daniel & Agree,
I disagree with your analysis of Wyong. Little can be drawn from the Dobell result for Wyong. To quote the ABC’s Antony Green “The Libs ran a crap campaign” (in Dobell 2010). They preselcted their candidate very late, he resigned shortly after for personal reasons & Wyong Deputy Mayor John McNamara was parachuted in barely a month from polling day and the resulting campaign was ordinary.
By contrast the Libs preselected Darren Webber very early and by all accounts he has been campaigning very well. The amount of resources & Shadow Ministerial visits to the electorate suggests that the Libs are serious about Wyong. Webber’s profile & recognition appears to be growing rapidly.
By contrast, Labor’s David Harris has ran a lacklustre campain to date.
He is vulnerable on many local issues and the whisper from up north is that he doesn’t enjoy the support of many of the local ALP branchs (particularly in influential areas like Toukley) – probably why his campaign is spluttering.
Wyong is by no means a foregone conclusion & definitely one to watch.
My prediction: Liberal gain, 8-14% swing.
I don’t know who gives Steve his info but Wyong and Toukley are Harris’ two strongest branches! As for a lack lustre campaign-he is timing it just right. Just check out his achievements on http://www.keepdavid.com
Looks like the punters agree with you Matt, Webber has shortened dramatically to $1.10 and Harris is friendless at $3.50
The toughest of the Central Coast to call …. and the hardest for Libs to win.
With regards to the previous posters; are these punters operating off a “knowledge base” of the seat & the real situation on the ground OR being carried along on the landslide bandwagon ? Betting markets are interesting & sometimes surprisingly prescient BUT they are no more failsafe than polling.
This is the Central Coast seat I WON’T call. Libs may win it but but not the certainty like The Entrance & Gosford. Holding it …. very tricky … one term, maybe two.
I am surprised by the odds, however, I agree this is now tracking to the co-alition. They should pick up all of Gosford, Wyong and The Entrance, but Swansea is probably too hard.
dirkprovin – Poor Harris is copping abuse in the street where ever he goes. Even got a mention on the NBN news, where as, Webber is getting some great response from local businesses. But my views align with yours, although I do believe the co-alition will win this on a smaller swing than in the Sydney metro. There is just not enough fat in it for the ALP to retain I believe. Polling showing a narrow Webber win at the moment so I don’t get the $1.10. Much better value elsewhere.
Seems to me that it will be the Liberal Candidate for Wyong, Darren Webber, copping abuse since his claim, that Warnervale could be the next international airport for Sydney has been shown to be a sham and just pure scare mongering (ABC radio today at 1:30pm)
DB I agree that Swansea is likely to be a step too far.
The question is how much swing IS possible in this seat. My recollection (which may indeed be faulty) is that 2007 already saw a fair-sized swing. Crittenden’s retirement, candidate factors may have been in play but but discontent at State Govt the major factor. How much more scope to vent remains as against the existing ALP margin ??
I’d lean towards the Libs but it’s not the “done deal” like The Entrance. Looking longer term, The Entrance is the seat I see most likely to stay Lib ….. Gosford & Wyong more “highwater” marks.
Prediction – Liberal gain, around a 10% swing. The seat still contains good booths in Newcastle and given there was a bit of a swing already, plus possibly a dud Liberal candidate, plus the fact that it’s more of a rural seat, means it probably won’t swing as much as other seats, but it’s still a chance of falling.
@morgieb – In 2007, Labor lost a popular local MP, and as a result sufferred a big swing. With a 12% primary loss last time, most probably going to independent, some of that vote should come back.
Like Macquarie Fields, a decent chunk of the disaster hit Labor last time in this seat. Not sure if Labor has much more swinging vote to lose.
My call is 5% 2PP swing against. Labor to hold.
Morgeib,
I think your read of the demographics is wrong. There is very littke real rural in this seat. It’s part parallel in Fed (Dobell) does have some rural booths in the west of the seat but these are small. The overwhelming bulk of this seat is coastal, urban commuter belt.
Anthony,
ALP MAY hold this seat but they will bill be lucky to do so. This seat HAS already vented …. as I stated earlier the question is just how great a capacity remains for further vengeance. I’m not too sure how much vote will return back from 2007.
@Angel – which ALP branch are you a member of? Or are you a staffer of Harris?
What you are publishing is just the Labor Party line. Please try to keep this a ‘spin free zone’.
You are betrayed by your ABC News airport claim. If Harris can stop the airport – why can’t he stop to coalmine? A poorly thought out strategy by Harris that shows he is under threat.
It will be a tough seat to hold. We should not take the Fed as any indication.
I’ve been getting good responses to David Harris on the ground. Most people just see Darren Webber’s mug. They don’t actually know what he stands for.
Harris has been a hard working local member. I have heard a couple of rumors involving Webber and the local Mayor that I don’t want to disclose here.
They concern Schools in the area. I will detail them to you if you email me at danoturner@hotmail.com
It is a real risk to elect Webber.
This is a 50/50 call. Hopefully it goes to Labor, but I don’t know how it will go.
Harris doesn’t have to “stop” the airport…it was never going to be! don’t know what you mean by being betrayed by ABC line.Just telling it as it was reported. Can’t help it if I listen to the radio….
@Local.
The coalmine got stopped.
@ Anthony – 2007 saw the retirement of long time Labor member, Paul Crittenden – how popular he was is for others to comment. 2007 also saw Liberal candidate Brenton Pavier dumped over a lewd SMS scandal only to be replaced with eventual candidate Ben Morton 3 weeks out from polling day.
There was a signigicant swing against Labor in 2007 (in keeping with the erosion of Labor’s primary in Wyong from 1999 onwards) and yes a lot of that went to popular Wyong Councillor & independent candidate Greg Best – my mail is that it was only a spiteful preference swap bungle with the Libs that produced the final result. I’m tipping anything BUT a swing to Labor in 2011.
@ Daniel – yes, your whispered school allegations have spread reasonably widely – perhaps if you had some basis of fact you may wish to publish them??
This one is still too close to call, however I’m leaning towards the notion that 6.9% won’t be big enough to save Harris from the expected whitewash.
Certainly what I’ve heard from central coast people is that whilst The Entrance and Gosford are in the bag for the Libs, the feeling is this one isn’t entirely certain.
Libs had candidate problems at both of the past two elections from memory. Greg Best, the independent Wyong councillor, hit the headlines in 2007 when the electoral commission refused to register his HTV bearing the slogan ‘We’re screwed’. He appealed the decision in court, but was unsuccessful.
Reports coming out of the Central Coast suggest David Harris’ campaign manager was spotted removing signage from front yards in San Remo yesterday, confirming the rumours that Harris’ campaign is under funded & under resourced. The other one doing the rounds is that the ALP is running dead in Wyong & looking to mount a strong campaign in 2015 with former Wyong Mayor Warren Welham as the preferred candidate?
I’m now placing this one in the Lib gain pile.
Steve – I am presuming you mean ALP signage so that it can be relocated to a better position?
DB – They were being removed in order to put up some sort of token effort on the booths. Clearly it wasn’t enough…….