Toongabbie – NSW 2011

1. Rees has a lot to worry about…a general 20% swing against Labor in the west…….admittedly in some parts of Sydney it’s a lot more. Particularly look at Smithfield, Campbelltown and the whole of St George/Sutherland.

   I think Rees may survive, mainly beacuse of lack of resources from the LIbs. But it’ll be very tight, and preference swaps will matter here as I can’t see anyone breaking 43-44% on primaries.

   From what I understand, there is no seat in the due west of Sydney that the ALP presently views as completely safe with the exception of Mt Druitt – and that includes Blacktown.

2. Blacktown is more at risk than Toongabbie I’d argue.

3. But they’re both very very tight. I agree. I think Toongabbie will go down to the wire if Liberals muster a good push between now and election day. Even if they don’t, it will still be Labor retain with margin too close for comfort.

4. The sad reality is that Nath isnt a great cultural fit with Toongabbie, he may have grown up Westie but he just doesnt fit the electorate – when the big swing is on these things count.

   Will the Labor left give him one of the 2 upper house seats coming up after the election or maybe he’ll go back to his first love of being a staffer ?

5. “The sad reality is that Nath isnt a great cultural fit with Toongabbie”

   What? Explain? I have not been getting that mood at ALL on the campaign trail, quite the opposite. There’s a fair range of complaints I’ve heard about Nathan but “not one of us” is not amongst them.

6. I don’t agree, Millard. Nathan’s a great fit with the electorate. I could see him mingling with the locals at the Wenty TAB and the Wentworthville Hotel. Sure, there has been an influx of Indians and Sri Lankans in the recent past, but the electorate with the exception of Kings Langley, Seven Hills and parts of Toongabbie itself is working class. Nathan’s direct way of getting things done reasonates well with this electorate. Compare that with John Robertson, who doesn’t present himself as being one of ‘Blacktown’ that well, despite now living in Woodcroft, and it explains itself perfectly.

7. The South Asians actually get along famously with Nathan despite what you may think with all the preselection business and now this south asian independent. Seriously the campaign office is constantly swarmed with South Asian volunteers. 😀

8. There’s an iron law of Labor left politics that all left wing MP’s end up most comfortable in the inner city millieu – it dates back to Tom Uren. Our Nath is no different.

9. Just to clarify that Council of Indian Australians Inc [CIA] is a community body of Indian Australians. It is not a political body. The organisation is politically neutral. It considers itself as a lobby group for the interests of Indian Australians. CIA, as an organisation, is not campaigning for any candidate or party. Ashok Kumar is not a member of Council of Indian Australians. Indivisuals from CIA can campaign for whosoever they want to campaign for but they will only act on their indivisual basis.

   Some confusion has been created because of ABC Stateline and SMH coverage in regards to Toongabbie. We did tell the journos concerned that CIA was not running any campaign for or against any candidate and that we were talking with them [journos] as indivisuals, not as an organisation. The comments from us were what we knew as the feelings of several people from the Indian Australian community. Council is not funding anybody’s campaign either. It is also not raising funds for any one. For the ABC Stateline interview, Indians gathered in someone’s house and they were not all from any one organisation. Despite our advise to the contrary, media did use spin to portray as if CIA was running a campaign for anyone which ofcourse is untrue.

   Ashok Kumar, being a media person [editor of an Indian ethnic newspaper] is known in the Indian community. How many votes he will get is anyone’s guess. Who will he direct his preference to is something he will have to declare by 18th March ie today.

   As far as I know him, he is neither a Labor nor Liberal stooge. He is a plain and simple independent who wishes to make a point by being a part of the political process.

   Indian Australians need to take a more active interest in the political process and they should be in both major parties. This should hopefully allow one or more from that community to enter the Parliament one day!

   All power to every candidate in Toongabbie!

10. Rees has firmed to $1.57 according to Centrebet. Looking at the local papers, Rees seems to have comprehensively out-campaigned the Liberal candidate.

11. Hamish – I think that is fair to be honest. Suspect there will be a whole bunch of others around it falling though.

12. Still calling a Rees hold, but I did see some Liberal pamphlets this week for Lloyd, so I wouldn’t totally write her off yet. Although I imagine that the Liberals would be focusing more on Blacktown than Toongabbie at this stage.

13. Surely this is a better Liberal prospect than Blacktown…It has Kings Langley for starters and even the solid areas aren’t as rusted on as those in Blacktown. And whats all this supposed love for Rees. He was happy to play along when Tripodi et al deposed Iemma when he wouldn’t toe the line. And then they did the same with him later.

14. Peterjk23:

    Several reasons why this is going to be safer than Blacktown.

    Nathan Rees is a true local, there is no doubting that in the heart of the local populace. He is personally likeable, a good fit for Western Sydney, and his presence on the ground is really felt due to how much out and about he is in the electorate.

    Visible, palpable local achievements from Nathan (massive seven hills carpark, upgrades for all 22 local primary schools etc), mainly thanks pushing them through during his stint as premier.

    Distance from the unpopular NSW right machine, also a perception that Nathan is against the power privatization which is deeply unpopular in these areas.

    Sympathy for perception of him trying to take the fight to Tripodi & Obeid (You’re wrong with your political assessment of that btw, Iemma was Tripodi and Obeid’s boy. They only pushed him when it became politically impossible to protect him due to Iemma’s insistence at the cabinet reshuffle. Rees’ primary backing was the Left, Iemma and Kenneally’s primary backing was the Terrigals)

    High south asian vote going for Nathan.

15. I’ve got the ultimate respect for Rees, I hope he hangs on to Toongabbie.

16. Millard: That’s just attempting to paint all of the Left as chardonnay socialists. It may be true for many of us, but it’s certainly too vast a generalization to make.

    I can tell you that I’ve doorknocked well over probably 500 households all over this electorate myself and I have not gotten that sentiment at all. The strongest sentiment I’ve gotten is the opposite, that he is one of the westies and fighting the good fight.

    Nathan’s personal approval rating out here is 64% or something, and disapproval is only 24%. That is an immense net approval of 40%.

    If he loses, it’s because of the damaged Labor brand and the carbon tax. Nothing on him. (Seriously, if I had a dollar every time I heard “I like Nathan but I don’t want to vote for Labor” or “Nathan’s a great guy, but Labor stuffed up” or “he’s the only one in the entire parliament doing his job” or similar sentiments….)

17. Word on the ground in Toongabbie is that Nathan is in strife here. Toongabbie is a better bet for the Libs than Blacktown for a number of reasons.

    Firstly, Kings Langley will be strong for Lloyd. It’s the Castle Hill of Blacktown. The ALP vote will drop significantly at the Northern end as these areas are the most affluent parts of the electorate and Rees is clearly less visible. Last time the northern booths drew 50/50, most likely a 65/35 unless Rees and the local RO pulls off some ballot rorting.

    Secondly, go for a drive around many parts of Seven Hills and Toongabbie. Lots of the old fibro homes have been knocked down for new McMansions. That can only mean more Lib voters.

    Thirdly, the big booth at Toongabbie PS has always decided the winner of all the tight Federal campaigns over the past 15 years or so. This booth was used to deliver close victories for the Libs at the Federal scene and if Lloyd can be in front at this one, she’s well on her way to knocking him off.

18. Crazedmongoose – polling says this is a better bet for the Libs than Blacktown but I think the ALP will probably end up holding both. 50.1/49.9 here on the weekend with allowance of a 50% exhaustion of all other votes and a 50/50 split of Greens/CDP. Sample 400. Very close but I think Rees will just hold unless something goes awry this week.

19. Also, this is much better for the ALP than most seats in the western suburbs. Crazedmongoose is right in that there is a big local support factor for Rees which might save him. Other seats don’t have this benefit.

20. I live in the seat of North Shore & will spend 2 hours handing out for Nathan Rees on Saturday as I see Nathan as a good strong local candidate who actually works hard to get results for his voters of Toongabbie (I have never met nor have even spoken to Natahn Rees). If Nathan was still Premier the ALP would be in a better position than what it is in currently. The number of seats they will lose would not be as bad as what Saturday will bring. I see Nathan holding onto Toongabbie & hopefully the ALP will look at Nathan in leading the party over the next 4 years. A man who can stand up to the Powerbrokers is well respected in my eyes & I even think The Libs respect Nathan as a good honest strong working MP. If Nathan holds Toongabbie & others fall around him, then it will prove that Nathan is the man to lead the ALP!

21. Strongly disagree that Rees will become opposition leader. The ALP right will never allow a member of the Left to take over as leader in NSW again. The experment failed spectacularly and while you still have people like John Robertson and Eric Roosendaal running around, the Right will have the dominating voice. Not only that but looking at the potential results, Rees may well end up being the only ALP Left member left in the Legislative Assembly.

22. By what is being reported Robertson is in for a fight to hold onto Blacktown. He is no Paul Gibson, who if he was running again would have had no trouble in holding onto Blacktown for the ALP. I agree that it would be hard for Rees to lead the ALP as the support from within is not their unfortunately, but never the less he is a good strong hardworking MP who represents his electorate of Toongabbie well.

23. Hawkeye: Paul Lynch is also from the Left and will definitely hold (but he is Ferguson Left). I agree Rees won’t become leader of opposition. As for the Left experiment failing, depends how you classify it. The Rudd-Arbib-Albanese bloc certainly fell flat in NSW. But John Robertson, slated to become leader of NSW Labor after the 26th, has a long history of working across the factions.

    ChangeforToonie: Yeah, Kings Langley alone does not an electorate win however. Furthermore, how many of these McMansions in Toonie and Seven Hills have you doorknocked or phoned?

    I can tell you right now, lots of South Asian migrants (amongst whom Nathan is popular) and lots of Middle Eastern migrants (amongst whom Libs are unpopular).

24. I also agree with DB that at this stage Blacktown will be a hold as well. Both will be close.

    Blacktown and Toongabbie have one similar thing going for them, and that is the factions and unions throwing every man woman and child they can muster there to save some high profile people, whilst the Libs have bigger fish to fry. Campaign disparity alone will mean these will get hold in my opinion.

25. The ALP needs Nathan to hold as they will need every bit of experience in opposition to keep the Coalition at bay & not give them a mandate to do what they like for 4 years. It would be nice to see him lead the ALP but sadly seems unlikely, thus in saying this he will need to be promoted into a senior high profile shadow ministry.

26. Does anyone know who Ashok is preferencing?

27. Crazedmongoose – not quite, I do see a difference between the two seats despite the ALP putting everything into both Toongabbie and Blacktown. In Toongabbie there will be a sort of a ‘sorry’ factor for Rees (as there was for Rudd. Rudd had the smallest swing against him in Brisbane). Blacktown is almost demographically impossible for the Liberals to win. Basically, if the Libs won Blacktown, Labor should really only win about 5 seats in Sydney. Also, I don’t think the Liberal candidate in Blacktown helps their cause given his country background.

28. DB: no I completely agree. I meant “one similar thing going for them”. Other things are quite different.

    For one thing, Nathan is very local and a good cultural fit, Robertson isn’t percieved as such.

    Nathan’s got good personal vote, in fact I’d say, and I believe you said something similar, that for all the talk of personal popularity, Nathan is the only person in the state where personal popularity will make a real difference. Robertson hasn’t.

    Boutros: Ashok should be preferencing Libs but honestly, it won’t matter.

29. It’s really great that all of Nathan’s supporters have come in here and written stuff about “a sorry factor” or that Nathan’s personal popularity will get him over the line, however, all the polling is clearly indicating that he’ll be swept up in the Saturday’s tsunami.

    As I’ve said before, the Libs are in with a huge chance in this seat. With voters from the Castle Hill of Blacktown, the new McMansions in Seven Hills, Mr Kumar, the low vote for the Greens candidate and the slide in the ALP primary vote, Nathan may well be reduced to one of those infamous trivia night questions in decades to come – What was the name of the one term Member of Parliament who served as a Minister, then as the Premier for a year who was subsequently dumped by his party as Leader, only to go on to lose his seat at the next election? I mean, it beats who was the second Australian Prime Minister to lose his seat?

    I hear the Libs are marshalling the troops in this seat and have swamped the booths in Lalor Park with Young Libs. The perceived personal popularity of a candidate means jack poo when your party is so on the nose and your candidate is part of the rot.

30. changeforToonie: pray tell, what polling are you talking about that nobody on this site, Labor, Libs or the general public, know off?

31. Still calling a hold at this late stage. 53/47 2PP is my prediction I do not believe that the Liberals have not done enough to win. Lloyd would be worse than Conolly in Riverstone, which should tell you something. Mr Kumar will have very little electoral impact, due to those ‘links’ with the CIA. Subcontinental voters will not fall for that rubbish. Demographically, it’s still a Labor seat, even with Kings Langley and the developments in Seven Hills and Toongabbie. Watch Wenty, Pendle Hill and Lalor Park for the ALP.

32. Still tipping Rees to hold but Riverstone to go to the Libs.

33. Kirsty has actually worked her arse off in this seat. The problem is simply relative: Rees has about 3-4 times the resources (being one of the few members of the ALP Left that will be remaining) at his disposal and so is attempting to flood the market. This seat will be a lot closer than what most people think but I think that it is harsh to criticise Kirsty’s campaign, given how much Rees has gone after it.

34. Nathan to lead the Opposition!

35. I never saw one Liberal sign in Wenty at all during the election campaign, nor any Liberal volunteers. If there was an election campaign, Wenty didn’t really know about it. Even with limited resources, the Liberals still should have had some presence in Wenty, and Pendle Hill, for that matter as well. No presence, no winning, I’m afraid.

36. @DLH: The majority of Wentworthville itself is in a different seat (Smith or Granville, can someone double check please).

37. @Hawkeye
    Wentworthville is actually in Parramatta

38. Thanks for the correction. I know you have 4 seats around that area so wasn’t exactly sure.

39. Actually Wentworthville (where I grew up) is split between three electorates. South Wentworthville is in Granville, most of Wentworthville proper is in Parramatta, and the north-west bit is in Toongabbie.

40. LOL CMNG – so ? he’ll be able to add opposition backbencher to the roster and still be a trivia question.

41. For crazedmongoose: Firstly, congratulations on what was the most comprehensive local campaign I have ever seen. Rees owes his life to his volunteers who painstakingly doorknocked and phone canvassed large proportions of the electorate. However this finished up a lot closer than most people would have thought. How did you see the campaigns by Labor and the Libs and what do you think were the deciding factors worth 1 or 2% each that won it for Rees/lost it for Lloyd?

42. Millard Fillmore: I just find the amount of petty anti-Labor Left vitriol from you tiresome, that is all.

    Peter: Thanks. The Carbon Tax hit us hard, before the carbon tax we were comfortably leading on polling, after that it all went to crap. I also think, though there’s nothing to back this up, but in a seat like this at an election like this earlier polling would have to favor Nathan, because a lot of people voting for him were voting for very personal or considered reasons (perception that electricity sale wouldn’t have happened under Nathan, perception he was hard done over, perception that he is a good local fit etc etc.) and your average punter making up his or her mind in the last two days usually isn’t as informed as that.

    I think I under-estimated the strength’s of Kirsty’s campaign. And I should know better by now, any Liberal campaign in the north west is going to get a big boost of campaigners from the Hills, the Hard Right Lib stronghold.

43. I was involved with assisting with Kirty’s Campaign and also had a look at the numbers from the booths. I can tell you from the NSWEC website that Lloyd made decent gains right across the board. She got down within 5% across Lalor Park and Seven Hills and won 3 of the 4 biggest booths in the seat. What ended up bringing her short was Toongabbie Primary School, a booth which had an ALP 2PP of only 63% but she only got a 7% swing to her, when the rest of the seat was swing closer to 15%. In the end, Rees won by 192 votes, which would have been more than covered by that one booth had the swing there matched the rest of the seat. It was tight all the way there.

44. I agree re the Carbon Tax, particularly in the parts of the electorate that are supposedly more quintessential Australian – i.e. Lalor Park and Seven Hills away from the railway line both at the Northern and Southern ends of the suburb. In an electorate with fewer South East Asian voters, Rees may have been in the unemployment line, but fortune does favour the brave. Hawkeye is right about the strong result at Toongabbie Public – interesting considering that supposedly Rees turned up there late and threw a tantrum about the lack of ALP coreflutes, and it is in the council ward of Scott Lloyd which should have been good name recognition for Kirsty.

45. Is it possible the swing was smaller in Toongabbie PS simply because Rees was there all day? If so, it probably kept him in parliament.

    Also, while I don’t get all the faction goings on, as far as I could see, the hard right weren’t in Toongabbie

46. You’d have to say Nath was lucky for 2 things:

    a) His enemies (the Tripodi Fraction and the Ferguson Left) because being knifed gave him a sympathy vote relative to these talentless groups.
    b) Graeme Wedderburn (for the puppett line at the final presser) which made him look like a failed reformer

    worked out a treat for a guy who’d managed to spend from age 22 to 43 as a staffer or mp. After all somebody who was responsible for blowing 500m on a failed metro would have been uncermoniously dumped in a normal organisation but he emerges as some sort of “reformer” roflmao

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