IND 4.8% vs NAT
Incumbent MP
Peter Draper, since 2003.
Geography
Northern NSW. The seat of Tamworth covers most of Tamworth and Gunnedah local government areas and small parts of Narrabri and Liverpool Plains council areas.
History
The district of Tamworth was first created in 1880. It elected two members from 1880 to 1894. It has been a single-member district since 1894, although it was abolished for three elections in the 1920s. The seat has never been held by the ALP, or by the Liberal Party in its current form. The seat was dominated by Nationals MPs, but in recent years has regulary elected independents.
Frank Chaffey won the seat as a Liberal candidate in 1913. He shifted to the multi-member district of Namoi in 1920, and returned to Tamworth in 1927. He held the seat until his death in 1940, serving as a member of the Nationalist party and the United Australia Party.
Frank Chaffey’s son Bill Chaffey won the seat at the 1940 by-election. He left the UAP in 1941, serving as an independent until he joined the Country Party in 1947.
The younger Chaffey was deputy leader of the Country Party from 1959 to 1968, serving as a minister from 1965 to 1968. He left the Country Party over political differences in 1972, serving as an independent until his retirement in 1973.
Tamworth was won in 1973 by Country Party candidate Noel Park. He held it until his retirement in 1991.
In 1991, the National Party originally preselected farmer Tony Windsor. He was replaced as the party’s candidate at the last minute due to allegations of drink driving. He managed to defeat the official National Party candidate.
The parliament elected in 1991 did not give a majority to either party, and Windsor supported a Liberal-National coalition government in minority until its defeat in 1995. He was re-elected in 1995 and 1999.
In 2001, Windsor resigned from Tamworth to contest the federal seat of New England. He won the seat and has held it ever since. He recently was one of a number of crossbench MPs who decided to support the Labor Party in a minority federal government.
The 2001 Tamworth by-election was won by National Party candidate John Cull. He defeated Tamworth mayor James Treloar, an independent endorsed by Windsor. Cull lost Tamworth in 2003 to independent candidate Peter Draper. Draper won re-election in 2007. Draper won with a 2.5% margin in 2003, which was increased to 4.8% in 2007.
Candidates
- Paul Hobbs (Labor)
- Peter Draper (Independent)
- Kevin Anderson (Nationals)
- Dheera Smith (Greens)
- Tony Gibson (Independent)
Political situation
Peter Draper’s margin in Tamworth is not very large at all. If the Nationals benefit from a general swing they could win Tamworth. Draper may also be damaged by the decision of federal independent Tony Windsor to support the ALP.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Draper | IND | 20,531 | 46.2 | +10.2 |
| Kevin Anderson | NAT | 17,912 | 40.3 | +1.0 |
| Denise McHugh | ALP | 3,813 | 8.6 | -4.5 |
| Neville Mammen | CDP | 963 | 2.2 | -2.0 |
| Bruce Taylor | GRN | 537 | 1.2 | -0.8 |
| Norman Parsons | AAFI | 435 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Stan Heuston | IND | 209 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Draper | IND | 22,690 | 54.8 | +2.9 |
| Kevin Anderson | NAT | 18,721 | 45.2 | -2.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Tamworth have been divided into four areas. Booths in Gunnedah and Narrabri local government areas have been grouped as “Gunnedah”. Those booths in Tamworth council area have been divided into three areas. Those booths in the town of Tamworth itself have been grouped as “Tamworth Central”. The remainder of the council area has been divided into “Tamworth North” and “Tamworth South”.
Independent candidate Peter Draper polled most strongly in Tamworth South (61%) and Tamworth North (59.4%), but smaller majorities of 53-54% in Tamworth Central and Gunnedah.
| Voter group | ALP % | IND 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Tamworth Central | 9.5 | 53.9 | 19,707 | 44.4 |
| Tamworth North | 7.2 | 59.4 | 6,382 | 14.4 |
| Gunnedah | 7.7 | 53.0 | 6,329 | 14.3 |
| Tamworth South | 7.9 | 61.0 | 3,012 | 6.8 |
| Other votes | 8.4 | 52.7 | 8,970 | 20.2 |
Will be interesting to see if the Nationals pull this off. Hoping they do strangely – it’ll be cool to see open primaries for seats like they do in the US.
Draper faces a major hurdle. In 2007 he promised a new hospital would be built in Tamworth, with construction to begin before the 2011 election. That hasn’t happened and won’t happen. Over the past 4 years he consistently assured the community the hospital would be built as promised. He even said he was happy to be judged in 2011 solely on the basis of the delivery of the new hospital, as promised.
Presumably, on that basis, he won’t be voting for himself.
Other electors may accept his invitation to judge his capacity to adequately represent the electorate solely on his failed promise to deliver a new hospital.
I’m expecting a Nat gain, simply because Windsor and Oakeshott are on the nose.
My prediction: National gain, 15%+ swing, given what happened in Gippsland East last year in Victoria and the decision by local MP Tony Windsor to support a minority Labor government.
Not sure if Ben had previously noted this in the ‘Candidates’ section, but either way it’s not there now so worth noting for the record.
Kevin Anderson was selected as Nationals candidate via an open primary conducted in June last year. Over 4,000 voters participated in the primary. It will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the result.
Independents tend to do poorly when there is a wave election, but the Independent vote in the polls is high outside Sydney is it all in Wollongong & The Hunter?
Geoff, good question. I’d say yes. Hunter particularly.
I would be very surprised if Draper retains this seat. He will be the first victim of Tony Windsor’s decision to support Julia Gillard. I know a great number of people who voted for Windsor were absolutely livid at his decision and have vowed not to consider voting for any independent again unless they clearly outline who they would support in a hung parliament. These are conservative seats (New England, Tamworth) and the sitting MP’s although independent have always been seen as conservative independents. people don’t trust them now and are about to send a message. Unfortunately for Draper, he is going to cop the brunt of Windsors stupidity.