Rockdale – NSW 2011

ALP 10.3%

Incumbent MP
Frank Sartor, since 2003.

Geography
Southern Sydney. The seat of Rockdale covers most of the City of Rockdale and part of Kogarah council area, in the St George district of Sydney. Suburbs include Sans Souci, Sandringham, Brighton-Le-Sands, Rockdale, Arncliffe, Turrella and Bardwell Park.

History
The electoral district of Rockdale was first created in 1927 upon the abolition of the multi-member district of St George. It was abolished in 1930, but was restored in 1941. It has been held by the ALP continuously since 1941.

The original district was won in 1927 by the Nationalist candidate James Arkins. He attempted to move to the seat of Waverley in 1930 unsuccessfully. He went on to serve in the Senate from 1935 to 1937, and again served in the Legislative Assembly as Member for Dulwich Hill from 1938 to 1941.

In 1941, the seat of Rockdale was restored. The seat was won by the ALP’s John McGrath. He served as a minister from 1953 until his retirement in 1959.

McGrath was succeeded in 1959 by Brian Bannon. He held the seat as a backbencher until 1986, when he resigned in order to give Barrie Unsworth a path into the Legislative Assembly. Unsworth had been a member of the Legislative Council since 1978, and had been a minister since 1984. When Neville Wran retired in 1986, Unsworth was elected Labor leader, and Bannon resigned to give him a seat in the Assembly.

Rockdale had been held by the ALP in 1984 with 63% of the primary vote. A massive swing saw Unsworth narrowly survive, winning by 54 votes.

Unsworth held on more comfortably in 1988, despite the ALP losing the state election in a landslide.

Unsworth retired in 1991, and he was succeeded by George Thompson, his former campaign manager. Thompson was re-elected in 1995 and 1999, and retired in 2003.

Thompson was succeeded in 2003 by Frank Sartor. Sartor had served as the independent Lord Mayor of Sydney since 1991, stepping down in 2003 to become a Labor MP in state Parliament. He immediately joined the Carr government’s ministry. He has served in a variety of portfolios since 2003. He returned to the backbench during Nathan Rees’ leadership from 2008 to 2009 and now serves as Minister for Climate Change and the Environment.

Candidates

Political situation
Rockdale would normally be considered safe for the ALP, but in the current climate the Liberals would be hoping to gain the seat.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Frank Sartor ALP 20,891 50.2 +0.7
Lili Gestakovska LIB 13,864 33.3 +9.2
Liam McGillicuddy GRN 3,139 7.5 +1.1
Brian Walsh IND 1,672 4.0 +4.0
Gang Wang UNI 1,036 2.5 +0.8
Amin Abbas IND 533 1.3 +1.3
Lesleyanne Azel SOS 461 1.1 +0.3

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Frank Sartor ALP 22,486 60.3 -5.5
Lili Gestakovska LIB 14,807 39.7 +5.5

Booth breakdown
The seat of Rockdale has been divided into three areas. The north covers Arncliffe, Bexley, Bardwell Park and Turrella. The centre covers Brighton-Le-Sands and Rockdale. The south covers Kogarah, Ramsgate, Sandringham and Sans Souci.

The ALP won large majorities of around 65-66% in the centre and north of the seat, compared to only 53% in the south of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Rockdale at the 2007 state election. North in yellow, Central in green, South in blue.

 

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
South 6.2 53.1 13,345 32.1
Central 6.8 65.3 11,575 27.8
North 9.2 66.6 8,997 21.6
Other votes 9.0 58.9 7,679 18.5
Two-party-preferred votes in Rockdale at the 2007 state election.

26 COMMENTS

  1. Labor’s vote looks low by historic standards looks like another example of how gentrification has advantaged the Libs.Compare this and Drummoyne to Strathfield which has moved in the other direction.

  2. Interestingly, I’d have thought Kogarah would be more Liberal-leaning on paper than Rockdale, yet Rockdale’s nearly 10% less safe for Labor.

    Anti-personal vote for Sartor perhaps?

  3. I know that seats similar to Kogarah seem to have a massively inflated Labor vote at state level. On federal results, for example, Kogarah’s more marginal than Rockdale. I think that the Liberals are more likely to win Kogarah than Rockdale.

  4. I agree with the above post, but I think the Liberals will win it this time. Probably a one term seat however for the co-alition.

  5. this measures the extent of the swing…… labor should retain…… if both Rockdale & kogarah are retained then this is a normal election no landslide

  6. Mick Quinlivan – I can’t see how you think there won’t be a landslide. Many commentators suggest the ALP will end up with its lowest primary support of any election in Australia. I don’t disagree.

    I certainly can’t see Labor winning Kogarah and I don’t think they will win Rockdale either simply due to OPV.

    The latest debacle over the electricity sell-off doesn’t help Keneally personally either.

  7. 6 weeks until the election and no pamphlets introducing either the Labor or Liberal candidate. Curious

  8. I agree with you DB I cannot see Rockdale surviving under Labor, IF there was a strong local candidate then maybe a battle may insue BUT not with the angst with Sydney “siders” all looking for blood.

  9. Given local polling here, I can’t see Labor holding. It could be closer than some people think though. I think campaigning here will happen from the weekend after next. Don’t expect much money to be spent on this seat.

  10. I’ve heard some Labor people speak more optimistically about this seat than the ones surrounding it. I still think it’s likely to go, though.

  14. The reason this seat has a lower margin then Kogarah is that this seat takes in the affluent costal area of Ramsgate and San Souci.

    The boundry of this seat is in Barton, which swung to the Liberals by 8% at the recent federal election, so this seat should not be marginal after the election

  15. dovif – I don’t think this one will swing as much as Oatley or Kogarah. Probably equal with Kogarah in difficulty for the co-alition to pick up despite the much smaller margin. PS: I think the co-alition will get all three though. Probably a seat, along with Kogarah that would be a one-termer for the co-alition unless there is a strong local member.

  16. DB, I disagree with you about the one-termer comment, both Kogarah and Rockdale were marginal seats at the start of the 1990s. Since that time, there had been a lot of asian immigration into the area.

    As Antony Green’s blog says, these migrant moved away from the Liberals during the Howard years. But these immigrants are not natural allies of the ALP because of the following reason.
    A lot of asians are small businessmens
    Some of them left communist regimes as they have aspiration for something better

    If the Liberals selects good candidates for these seats, there is no reason that these seats will be held by the Liberals. Witness, the margin of the Federal seat of Banks is now 2%

  17. “Some of them left communist regimes as they have aspiration for something better”. I don’t disagree, but the ALP could hardly be accused of being some sort of communist regime. As I said, it would take quality MP’s in Rockdale and Kogarah for the Libs to hold these at the next election, if indeed they were to win such seats this time.

    Banks is actually 1.4% and if a Federal election were held now, it would be a Liberal seat. In that, I have no doubt.

  18. If the Liberals hold all of Kogarah, Oatley, and Rockdale it will make the upcoming state redistribution more fun. Liberals have always argued for a seat aligned east-west along the Georges River to give them a safe Liberal seat (which to be fair is more logical than linking the area with Bexley and Arncliffe). Watching them try to protect the Lib margin for all 3 sitting MPs in the area will be interesting.

    Has O’Farrell made any noises about expanding the size of the Parliament?

  19. Support in this seat for the ALP has fallen off a cliff in the last week. Can only put it down to the carbon tax. What I thought was going to be a close race doesn’t appear to be anymore.

  20. I’m tipping the Liberals in a toss-up.
    Sartor was imposed on voters here by Sussex Street, so maybe his departure will help. I’ve never heard of the Labor candidate trying to succeed him, but people will know the Liberal candidate Flowers as a local councillor and ex-mayor. This makes me tip the Liberals to win, but it could go either way.

  21. Kamper is Greek and there are an awful lot of Greeks in the “fancy” parts of the electorate – Brighton, Monterey, Ramsgate.

    Clever candidate pick by HO – the rusted on parts of the electorate ie Arncliffe and Rockdale plus a greek appealling to the affluent. This strategy assumes the macedonians in rockdale dont work out he’s a greek with an anglicised surname. Against the swing which is coming it wont be enough but still clever.

  22. I believe the margin is already a little tighter here because the Liberals devoted some resources to this seat in 2007 hoping for an anti-Sartor vote. If I recall correctly Debnam made this seat his last stop on the campaign trail on election eve.

    The independent Michael Nagi is a Rockdale councillor. He isn’t directing preferences.

  23. Unsworth and Barry made a bet on this seat, the price is a bottle of Champaign

    Does DB have any news on this seat

Comments are closed.