Parramatta – NSW 2011

ALP 13.7%

Incumbent MP
Tanya Gadiel,  since 2003.

Geography
Western Sydney. Parramatta covers suburbs around the Parramatta CBD, including Dundas, Ermington, Wentworthville and Westmead. It covers a large proportion of the City of Parramatta and small parts of the City of Holroyd and Baulkham Hills Shire.

History
The electoral district of Parramatta has existed continuously since the first Legislative Assembly in 1856. The seat was first a two-member district until 1880, when it became a single-member district. It expanded in 1920 to become a three-member district, before becoming a single-member district in 1927. The seat was dominated by conservative parties in the early 20th century, but since the 1950s it has been dominated by the ALP, who have won all elections except for the 1956 and 1988 elections.

Parramatta was won in a 1916 by-election by Liberal candidate Albert Bruntnell. Over the previous decade he had twice served in the Legislative Assembly, representing Surry Hills and Annandale. He served as Member for Parramatta continuously until his death in 1929. When Parramatta expanded in 1920 it took over the previous seat of Granville, and the former Member for Granville, Jack Lang, was elected as a member for Parramatta. He twice served as Premier, and when single-member districts were restored in 1927, he was elected in Auburn.

The 1929 by-election was won by senior military officer Herbert Lloyd, running as a Nationalist. He lost in 1930, but later held Mosman from 1932 to 1941.

Parramatta was won in 1930 by the ALP’s Joseph Byrne. He held the seat until 1932, when an election was triggered by the Governor’s removal of Lang as Premier. Byrne was one of many casualties of the ensuing landslide.

George Gollan won Parramatta in 1932 for the United Australia Party. He served as a minister in UAP governments from 1938 to 1941. He held the seat until the 1953 election, when a redistribution made the seat stronger for the ALP. He retired and was succeeded by the ALP’s Kevin Morgan.

Morgan held the seat for one term, losing in 1956 to Jim Clough of the Liberal Party. Clough himself lost in 1959. He later held the seat of Eastwood from 1965 to 1988. He served as a minister for the final four months of the Liberal government in 1976.

Parramatta was won in 1959 by the ALP’s Dan Mahoney. He held the seat until his retirement in 1976. Barry Wilde, also of the ALP, held the seat from 1976 to 1988.

The Liberal Party’s John Books won Parramatta in 1988 by 268 votes. In 1991, the redistribution made the seat notionally Labor, and Books lost to the ALP’s Andrew Ziolkowski.

Ziolkowski was diagnosed with cancer of the oesophagus in 1993, and died in 1994. The ensuing by-election was won by his wife Gabrielle Harrison. Harrison served as Minister for Sport and Recreation in the first term of the Carr government from 1995 to 1999.

Prior to the 2003 election, Harrison faced a preselection challenge from Tanya Gadiel, an advisor to Police Minister Michael Costa. In the face of the challenge she stepped down, and Gadiel won the seat in 2003.

Gadiel was re-elected in 2007 and became a parliamentary secretary shortly after. She left that post in 2008 to serve as Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, a role she still holds.

Candidates

  • Duncan Roden (Socialist Alliance)
  • Michael McDermott (Independent)
  • Peter Magee (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Phil Bradley (Greens)
  • Pierre Esber (Labor)
  • Geoff Lee (Liberal)
  • Thomas Katsoulas (Family First)
  • Kon Paraskevopoulos (Independent)
  • Robert Aiken (Independent)

Political situation
A 13.7% margin could be enough to save the seat for the ALP, but it may be vulnerable to the Liberals. It is also possible McDermott could poll strongly and undermine the Labor vote enough to either elect the Liberal or be in with a chance of winning himself.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tanya Gadiel ALP 21,110 51.4 +1.2
John Chedid LIB 11,844 28.8 +0.9
Tim Hendry GRN 2,742 6.7 -0.3
Doug Morrison CDP 2,220 5.4 +2.2
Ada Wong UNI 1,625 4.0 +0.2
John Mansfield AAFI 797 1.9 +1.6
Robert McFarlane DEM 750 1.8 +0.3

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tanya Gadiel ALP 23,537 63.7 +0.1
John Chedid LIB 13,399 36.3 -0.1

Booth breakdown
Parramatta has been divided into three areas. Westmead in the west, Parramatta in the centre, and Dundas-Ermington in the east. The ALP polled around 61-62% in the east and centre of the seat, and much more strongly with 74% in the west.

Polling booths in Parramatta at the 2007 state election. Westmead in green, Parramatta in orange, Dundas-Ermington in blue.

 

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Dundas-Ermington 6.6 62.1 14,053 34.2
Parramatta 6.4 61.1 12,427 30.2
Westmead 6.2 74.2 6,059 14.7
Other votes 7.6 62.8 8,549 20.8
Two-party-preferred votes in Parramatta at the 2007 state election.

38 COMMENTS

  2. I think it’s Oatlands, which is more affluent than most of the surrounding area.

    Given federal results you can see how badly the Liberals have under-achieved in this area, so there’s plenty of room for a rebound in 2011. I wonder if the oft-promised never-delivered Parra-Epping railway will cause as much a backlash here as it apparently did in Bennelong.

  4. It’s interesting that Pierre Esber’s campaign material brands him as “a local for Parramatta” when it was only Maxine McKew’s last-minute candidacy that stopped him jumping ship to Bennelong in 2007.

  5. Westie, check your fact. He was planning on running for his local federal seat.

    In 2007, Bennelong took in the North East section of the State seat of Parramatta. It was a local seat. This was the redistribution where Parramatta CBD was cut between its seat name and Reid.

    In fact, only about 1/2 of Parramatta state seat, and all of Toongabbie state seat was in the Federal seat.

    Pierre has lived his entire life in the electorate. That is the justification as a local candidate.

  7. Anyone putting money on the outcome of this seat is exceedingly brave. Like it’s neighbour Granville, this looks a complete mess to call …. albeit higher possibilities for the Libs. Indie may be a chance but prefs & exhaustion rates will determine this one.

  8. Anthony, Pierre lives in Parramatta (federal), though he changed council ward he represents in 2008 to move North East into Bennelong territory.

    That said, I don’t think the fact he tried to contest Bennelong should be used against him.

  10. PeteD, He was elected to Elizabeth Macarthur Ward in 1999 and moved to Lachlan Macquarie Ward in 2003 – well before the 2006 redistribution.

    Lachlan Macquarie takes in the eastern end of Parramatta. He represents approx 20% of the Parramatta electors, and gets the majority of his council vote from this area.

    This is one of those seats where people seem to be overplaying the impact of an Independent. McDermott is not that well known outside of the Dundas/Oatlands area. He will be fighting in the area prone to swing to the Libs.

    In fact, I believe he will end up being a spoiler for the Liberal party,

  12. Definitely a Liberal gain. New migrants are not that keen on Labor. Not to forget ALP is adopting same policies as coalition when it comes to Immigration, asylum seekers etc.

  14. Anthony – I have actually been updated on what you are talking about on your 17 days to go post. The ALP shouldn’t go there, the Libs have just as much up their sleeve apparently in photo. Be warned….

    The defacing of ALP posters by some spirited young men is in retaliation for ALP workers defacing Liberal posters last week in Parramatta. Thankfully it has not become physical as it has in Cabramatta.

  15. God damn young branch members. Anybody who defaces other campaigns’ posters are complete idiots. Not only is it uncivil, it’s also wasting good volunteer hours which should be spent…you know…campaigning.

    You wouldn’t catch Young Labor doing this! Nooooo siree, you’d at most catch us on election night drunkenly stealing corflutes in contests with ill defined rules.

  17. Crazedmongoose, DB… I enjoy your witty and good natured exchanges. I imagine the two of you as colonels on opposite sides of some sort of 18th century battle, exchanging commentary via semaphore and homing pigeons.

  18. I’d be happy to have a beer with Crazedmongoose anytime. Much like Rudd and Hockey, who even today after everything still have a beer and a laugh.

    I personally hope the Liberals don’t go over the top with their win in this election. There is nothing more demoralising than being a one-term parliamentarian based on what I have seen from experience. I’d like to still be able to call it 22 for the ALP, but I can’t be that confident after some of today’s polling results and Newscorp poll.

    One area I wasn’t sure on was the Hunter. But after today it does appear it will be a bloodbath for Labor with a few Independents/Libs, but I’ll talk to that on Monday. Watch Newcastle, Charlestown and Swansea. All should be Labor holds, but I don’t think they will be….perhaps one of them will be.

    Despite it being very close I still reckon that Whan will retain Monaro however.

  19. After hearing about how the Liberal Flying Squad celebrated the 2010 Federal Election (attempting to tear Jackson’s on George apart), I think I will be staying well clear of the entire group.

  20. hughie: Thank you! I bags being Ambrose Burnside, he wasn’t much of an office but by god one must admire his beard.

    (Now that you said it, our last comments where we look down upon volunteers defacing may as well have been officers having a go at the enlisted men for looting after battle)

  22. Awesome idea Hawkeye! If Labor win, the Union flag goes up outside the electorate office, and the Liberals win, up goes that Confederate flag!

  23. Surely if we abandon any loose ideological left-right paradigm and go by tactical situation right now, we’d be the Confederates?

    The anti-carbon tax and the M5 widening campaigns are then obviously Sherman’s march to the sea.

  24. The departure of Gadiel, whom Sussex Street imposed on this electorate, may in fact help Labor. Voters should know Esber, as a local councillor, whereas Lee seems like a nobody. And with people knowing him as deputy mayor, McDermott will muddy the waters. I tip Esber to win in a toss-up.
    By the way, this is one electorate that should be spurning the Liberals for shelving the Epping-Parramatta railway. If built, this link would benefit the electorates of Parramatta, Toongabbie, Blacktown, Riverstone, Hawkesbury, Mount Druitt, Mulgoa, Londonderry, and Penrith. Hardly any of these are marginal – hence Liberal apathy to the EPR.

  26. Epping-Parramatta? Which should have been Chatswood-Parramatta? Which has now blown out in estimates and is amongst the other white elephants like the Spit Bridge Re-Development and the M5 East Extension?

    There will be a big swing in the eastern side of the seat, flowing across to the west. I see this as a very likely Liberal Gain.

  27. Lots of Esber signs in Harris Park. Many more Liberal signs everywhere. Lee is not the best candidate I have ever seen, but he will win this seat. I just can’t see Esber holding on.

  29. Spoke to some Liberals in Westmead today. They’re confident they can win this. This is the third time I’ve seen them in Westmead, although I’ve not seen Lee. The excuse this morning was that he was on Victoria Road waving his signs around (he wasn’t the only Liberal doing that this morning; see the Riverstone page for Kevin Conolly’s antics). They were bagging Esber out something fierce.

  30. Anthony: Esber didn’t live in Bennelong when he sought preselection, even under the 2007 boundaries. He admitted it himself when profiled in the metropolitan newspapers at the time.

    You do seem to know your local politics though – have you ever run for anything locally before?

  35. My sources tell me that Labor has this but if McDermott, CDP and a couple others preference liberal it might give Lee a fighting chance…

  36. I did a postal vote against Labor and i hope they lose. I haven’t seen Labor do anything constructive for parramatta or the state. As a medical student, i was very annoyed they scrapped guarantee of internship to NSW medical graduates who did their medicine outside of NSW. Why they did this this yr just before the election beats me. Many of us NSW residents who want to do something for the NSW health care system which is in shambles due to inadequte funding will have little chance to if NSW graduates from interstate are given preference. Or at least we should have an increase in internship places considering how services are so insufficient in NSW Hospitals. I emailed Tanya about this in an email and asked her to put forward my suggestion. Even mentioned it in a phone call to the office when they called me up asking for votes. response was silence…nothing was done. This lack of action shows the laziness and utter incompetence to Labor. Hopefully it’s good riddance Labor for today 🙂

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