ALP 14.4%
Incumbent MP
Kevin Greene, since 2007. Previously Member for Georges River 1999-2007.
Geography
Southern Sydney. Oatley covers most of the City of Hurstville and parts of Kogarah municipality and the City of Canterbury. Suburbs include Lugarno, Peakhurst, Mortdale, Penshurst, Hurstville and Oatley.
History
The electoral district of Oatley first existed from 1927 to 1930, and again since the 2007 election. In between, the seat was mostly covered by the seat of Georges River, which existed from 1930 to 2007.
The original district of Oatley was won by the ALP’s Mark Gosling, who had held one of the seats in the multi-member district of St George since 1920. When Oatley was abolished in 1930, its territory was split between the new seats of Kogarah and Georges River. Gosling won Kogarah in 1930, but lost in 1932.
The district of Georges River originally covered Cronulla and those areas on the southern shore of the Georges River. It gradually contracted to the western part of the St George area. Georges River was a marginal seat, regularly switching sides.
The ALP lost Georges River in 1988 to Liberal candidate Terry Griffiths. Griffiths served as a minister in the Coalition state government, but was forced to resign from the party and the ministry in 1994 over a sexual harassment scandal.
The seat was won in 1995 by the Liberal Party’s Marie Ficarra. She lost in 1999 to the ALP, but later won a seat in the Legislative Council in 2007.
Kevin Greene won Georges River for the ALP in 1999. He moved to the new seat of Oatley in 2007, and has served as a minister in the Labor government in 2007.
Candidates
- Steven Marcos (Christian Democratic Party)
- Kevin Greene (Labor)
- Anne Wagstaff (Greens)
- Mark Coure (Liberal)
Political situation
Oatley is held by a substantial Labor margin of 14.4%. Local sources suggest that the St George area is undergoing a massive anti-Labor swing, and Oatley is likely to fall to the Liberals, with the ALP running an underwhelming campaign.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kevin Greene | ALP | 22,213 | 52.4 | -0.1 |
| Roger Gray | LIB | 12,149 | 28.7 | -2.1 |
| Nancy Liu | UNI | 2,086 | 4.9 | +0.3 |
| Paul Gage | GRN | 1,880 | 4.4 | -1.6 |
| Martin Baker | CDP | 1,786 | 4.2 | +3.9 |
| Michele Adair | IND | 1,291 | 3.0 | +0.2 |
| John McGrath | AAFI | 679 | 1.6 | +0.3 |
| Greg Briscoe-Hough | IND | 306 | 0.7 | +0.5 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kevin Greene | ALP | 23,960 | 64.4 | +0.2 |
| Roger Gray | LIB | 13,271 | 35.6 | -0.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Oatley have been divided into four areas: Hurstville in the east of the seat, Mortdale in the south, Peakhurst in the west and Penshurst in the north.
The ALP polled around 70% in Penshurst and Hurstville, and under 60% in Mortdale and Peakhurst. The third-polling candidate was from the Unity party. They polled almost 10% in Hurstville and over 6% in Penshurst, but around 1-2% in the rest of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | UNI % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Penshurst | 4.0 | 6.3 | 71.9 | 10,899 | 25.7 |
| Mortdale | 5.3 | 1.6 | 58.7 | 9,551 | 22.5 |
| Peakhurst | 3.4 | 0.9 | 54.9 | 6,763 | 16.0 |
| Hurstville | 3.7 | 9.7 | 69.4 | 6,641 | 15.7 |
| Other votes | 5.4 | 6.3 | 64.9 | 8,536 | 20.1 |
Once on Gosling’s campaign slogans was don’t be an ostrich vote for Gosling. Politics of this seat used to largely but not entirely depend on whether it was based on the Liberal waterfront or went to the north into Labor territory.
Certainly think this is one that’ll go despite it’s imposing margin – the electorate has a lot of expensive housing near the George’s River, and even in the area’s around Hurstville/the train line, there’s a lot of new big housing estates.
On federal results, the Liberals would win this by 7 votes, but it doesn’t look like they can get a big of a preselection coup as Ron Delezio.
this is interesting..sure the 2007 margin is inflated… but Kevin Greene has a personal vote….. he is the only Labor candidate to my knowledge to win Lugarno…… how did you work out a 7 vote lib win….b ased on federal figures? no one can assess that accurately
It was actually 9 votes.
Used federal figures, but I avoided the task of splitting up booths as it was impossible to know who was in which electorate for federal and state.
thats my point exactly…….. you can say on federal figures it was close…….. try the reverse what would 2007 state be across Banks…… I suspect over 10% labor margin
I agree that the Liberals will win this one comfortably. Labor is no hope here.
The seat of Oatley will be a very nice test case for the swing against Labour. The Liberal candidate of Mark Coure has a strong voter record as a Liberal councillor for Kogarah City Council. He has a lot of Labour voting supporters at local government level which will be tested at this coming state election.
Watch this space!
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You would have to think that this seat is a likely Liberal gain based on the results in Banks at the 2010 federal election.
This seat will go down to penalty shoot outs… will be a nailbiter – the battle of 2 Oatley locals popular in different perspectives.
Jimmy Apostolidis – the Liberals will win this and won’t even be that close. If you knew what I knew….
DB – do tell me something that I dont know?
DB, that’s a big call. Greene’s still seen as a good local MP iirc, and that might outweigh the kicking Labor gets at the election.
Still see Liberal picking it up however.
The article above states that the Green’s Anne Wagstaff is a Kogarah councillor. Luckily for Hurstville ratepayers, that is incorrect, she is our ONLY REPRESENTATIVE councillor on what is otherwise a totalitarian developer’s association.
However, I fear that, given that she is a good local govt. representative, she will bleed votes from both Lib. and Lab. parties, and her preferences will almost certainly go to Labor.
Interesting seat “bell weather” maybe not another good local candidate but I feel Labor may have done their dash in Sydney metro, Mr Greene will be leaving politics after this election
This is one of 5 seats that ALP head office has withdrawn campaign funding from in the 10-15% band in the last week on the strength of polling. Looks like there pulling the remaining panzers back to the outskirts of Berlin for the final showdown with Boffa’s hordes.
Millard Fillmore – yes, agree. From what I am seeing, they have given up on Oatley and are focussing on more outer suburbs than this including adjacent East Hills. Expect funding to be in Kogarah, Campbelltown, Liverpool, Cabramatta, and Blacktown. This does appear to be heading towards a monumental route given where the campaigning is.
Ken Goldsmith – I’d reckon that 50% of preferences will exhaust in a seat such as this. In any case, Green primaries won’t be higher than 6% in a seat such as this.
My prediction: Liberal gain, 15-20% swing.
I lives in the area around Oatley and can report the following
The ALP is putting no effort into the seat. Kevin Green’s poster is in fact Greene and does not have the ALP logo on it
Based on Federal results, where the Federal seat of Banks, which contained most of the boundries of Oatley, swung to the Liberals by almost 9% , the ALP will have to get a massive late swing to be contesting this seat (NSW ALP is about 12% behind the federal ALP, meaning they are probably 7 points behind)
Polling puts the Liberal Party comfortably ahead of the ALP in this seat.
Illustrating Greene’s green approach as mentioned by dovif: http://www.electionleaflets.org.au/leaflets/758/
Perhaps we need a new term for Labor members who pull tricks like this. I propose “Plastic Watermelons”: Green on the outside, Labor on the inside, and fake all the way through.
Deconst – just had a look at the brochure. Truely incredible. Seems there is no reference to labor at all. And the only reference I could find to the ALP was in his e-mail address – given the obvious effort to avoid the reference to the once great ALP one thinks he could have taken 5 mins to set up a hotmail account……….
Libs ahead 65/35 on primary vote poll undertaken on weekend. 300 polled.
I pre-polled in a Kogarah/Oakley booth (at border of the 2 boundry) and there was 4 Liberals handing out HTV, 2 Greens and 0 ALP, looks like ALP is not going to make efforts in these 2 seats
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Really surprised about Oatley, I thought Greene was well thought of in that electorate.
But then again, when the swing is on…………………..
The old Kevin was a Morris Iemma placeman. What would you rather be a primary school principal or a minister of the crown?
The choice is pretty clear. The sort of person who should have stayed a back bench MP but Iemma gave him the gig as a personal favour. Reflective of the lack of talent in the ALP gene pool that he’s lasted 5 years as a minister.
This will be at least 60/40 to the Libs, like it was in the early – mid 90’s
My sister actually thinks that the Libs haven’t run much of a campaign in this seat and that Labor will keep it. She doesn’t follow politics as passionately as me, though.
Kevin Greene. actually has a good reputation and a personal vote…..his problems are a middle to
upper middle class electorate….. in a bad election.
under normal circs his vote is higher than Labor’s federal vote
maybe maybe just maybe ………could surprise
Peter…. Georges River at the time you mentioned was as liberal as you could make such a seat on boundaries…. the boundaries at this time now are better for Labor maybe 5% stronger
Dear ‘deconst’,
I think it is good to be Labor on the inside. Great to see Kevin Greene showing that the ‘Greens’ do not have a monopoly on the environment.
Small parties can promise the world and know that they will never be able to deliver. They can have their fantasy highground while the rest of us are more realistic.
Er, Mick, I don’t know what your lot is in life, but I’ll say this – Oatley AIN’T “upper” class. Nice, but not upper class. Class is more than just how much money you have. You need to get around more.
hughie mick actually said upper middle class, Ive been around enough and I think it falls into this categorie I was just wondering what your qualifications are to judge otherwise
Kevin has abandoned most of the locals who are against the overcrowding of “Dept of Housing” units being developed in this area. He is also claiming to be blocking the developement of private residential buildings in these same areas. This has dissappointed many residents who will be happy to see him go. Expect a big swing.
Well, for all the pontifications above, the STUPID voters in Oatley have assured themselves of even less delivery from the lame duck memberand former minister (ie in the thick of things) of a leftover party known as the ALP.
Bloody idiots who vote because they play sport and this guy throws a few bucks at sporting facilities that should be funded by a ‘ratepegged’ and “”Infrastructure Plus’ additional rates ALP Council.
I can’t believe how STUPID such an ‘educated’ electorate is. Now our local MLA goes from being DUMB to DUMBER, along with his electorate…
The Libs will concentrate on keeping their wins and Oatley will remain the backwater that it is.
The issue that made the difference here was Alan Jones’ support of Greene in the last week of the campaign. He openly supported him on 2GB.