ALP 11.1%
Incumbent MP
Diane Beamer, since 1999. Previously Member for Badgerys Creek 1995-1999.
Geography
Western Sydney. Mulgoa includes southern parts of the City of Penrith and the rural west of the City of Liverpool. Suburbs include St Clair, St Marys, Badgerys Creek, Bringelly, Mulgoa and Wallacia.
History
Mulgoa was first created as an electoral district in 1988. It was won in 1988 by the ALP’s Tony Aquilina. In 1991, the seat of Mulgoa was abolished, with parts of it shifting to the new seats of St Marys and Badgerys Creek. Aquilina moved to the seat of St Marys. In Badgerys Creek, the sitting Liberal Member for Minchinbury, Anne Cohen, defeated the ALP’s Diane Beamer.
In 1995, Aquilina retired on pressure from the Labor leadership over scandals. He later spent a year in prison after being convicted of various offences. St Marys was won by Jim Anderson of the ALP, who moved to Londonderry in 1999 when St Marys was abolished and held it until his death in 2003.
In Badgerys Creek, Beamer defeated Cohen on a second attempt. In 1999, Badgerys Creek was abolished, and largely replaced by the restored seat of Mulgoa. Beamer was re-elected in Badgerys Creek in 1999, 2003 and 2007. She served as a minister in the Labor government from 2003 to 2007.
Candidates
- Patrick Darley-Jones (Greens)
- Tanya Davies (Liberal)
- Prue Guillaume (Labor)
- Tony Robinson (Independent)
- Emily Dunn (Independent)
- Luke Portelli (Christian Democratic Party)
Political situation
Mulgoa has a substantial margin for the ALP, and could be enough for the ALP to hold on. Yet Mulgoa is very similar to the neighbouring seat of Penrith, and a swing half of that at the Penrith by-election would be enough for the ALP to lose Mulgoa. In the current environment this seat is not safe.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Diane Beamer | ALP | 23,097 | 55.0 | -3.1 |
| Karen Chijoff | LIB | 14,835 | 35.3 | +6.7 |
| Wade Smith | GRN | 2,065 | 4.9 | +0.8 |
| Geoffrey Dakin | AAFI | 2,019 | 4.8 | +2.4 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Diane Beamer | ALP | 24,261 | 61.1 | -5.5 |
| Karen Chijoff | LIB | 15,432 | 38.9 | +5.5 |
Booth breakdown
Mulgoa includes a large semi-rural area in the southern part of the seat, and a more urbanised area in the north close to the centre of Penrith. Booths have been divided into three areas: the northeast, northwest and south. The ALP won a massive 68% majority in the northeast of the seat, a smaller 55% margin in the northwest, closest to the Penrith city centre. In the South, the Liberal Party won a majority with over 61%.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Northeast | 4.8 | 68.0 | 19,891 | 47.3 |
| Northwest | 4.5 | 55.1 | 11,869 | 28.2 |
| South | 5.3 | 38.7 | 3,545 | 8.4 |
| Other votes | 5.8 | 61.9 | 6,711 | 16.0 |
According to Antony Green’s election blog, Mulgoa would be less safe for Labor if the state Liberals had run better campaigns in the past few elections, federally it is stronger for the Liberals than the area covered by Penrith.
I’m not so sure. Yeah it does contain the better Liberal booths in Lindsay, but it also contains areas around St. Marys – hardly Liberal heartland. Probably will fall however.
This will be won by the Liberals, however, they may only hold it for one term.
My prediction: Liberal gain, 13-17% swing.
Emily Dunn will be the DLP endorsed Independent candidate for the seat of Mulgoa. She is a Pro-Lifer who supports improved health services in the area as well as greater investment in tafe and tertiary education.
Vote Emily Dunn – http://campaigns.dlp.org.au/state-election/mulgoa
Another candidate here is independent Tony Robinson.
Emily Dunn has not been endorsed as an independent candidate for Mulgoa by the NSW Branch led by Secretary Michael O’Donohue.
Emily is not a member of the NSW Branch of the DLP. Michael O’Donohue is the Secretary of the NSW Branch of the DLP and there are no endorsed candidates at this State election.
On 16 February 2011 the NSW Electoral Commission is continuing to recognise my friend, Michael O’Donohue as the Secretary of the NSW Branch of the DLP and also as the Registered Officer.
Emily and Boutros are not members of our branch.
Wow, another DLP schism exposed on The Tally Room.
@Michael Webb -the DLP website says you have been expelled as a member for trying to destabilise the party. I guess we take what you say with a grain of salt.
The DLP site lists Emily as Vice President of the party.
The DLP NSW Branch has a full executive and none of the people listed on that Federal DLP website correspond with the elected Executive known to the NSW Electoral Commission since 2008.
There are no expulsions of any of our Executive in NSW nor of our general membership which is close to the registration level of 750.
Meanwhile Emily and her friends me in Homebush along with a man called David ( is that you David?) and with about one dozen blow-ins declared a few unknowns as the new State Executive.
It doesn’t work that way David. And the NSW electoral commission rejected the assertions from that small group. As recently as 16th February 2011 your friends’ claims to be the new office holders and branch have NOT been accepted.
Stop being a fantasist.
I take this opportunity to wish Emily Dunn all the best in her efforts to secure the seat of Mulgoa. I know Emily is working hard and the community could not hope for a more energetic and dedicated representative then Emily.
On behalf of the DLP members and supporters around the country we wish you all the best and offer our full support for your campaign in Mulgoa.
Tony Zegenhagen
Federal Secretary
Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
I have started deleting comments about this DLP split on individual seat threads. It is not relevant to this electorate, and I don’t believe my reader’s care about microparty factional squabbles.
From weekend, co-alition 55/45 ahead on primaries, not to many ‘other’ votes here.
I think it’s a shame that Prue Guillaume won’t win Mulgoa. Tanya Davies is a extremely good candidate, but in any other election I dare say that Prue would get over the line. She has done a really, really good job from what I’ve been seeing. I hope that Labor give her a spot in the Upper House, rather than a Verity or a Carmel. She deserves something as far as I’m concerned.
The DLP State branch which is registered at local government level supports
the ALP candidate in line with real Labor values.
Our branch, led by Michael O’Donohue does NOT endorse Emily Dunn.
She has never been a member of our Branch.
We do NOT accept people as candidates who belong to the Nick William’s group that is calling itself the State branch.
We look at long term strategy and not simply at ‘pro-life’ records of candidates because abortion is already going on. An abortion cannot be done twice, so the efforts of the William’s group to make pro life an issue when preferencing , we think is misplaced.
The DLP is about eventual reunification with the ALP as the origional ALP Groupers intended. The latter day joiners have a version of history that the real Branch of the DLp finds curious to say the least.
The real Branch also believes in a 40% super profits tax whereas the people around Williams who is an assocaite fo Tony Zegenhagen have publicly a policy of opposition to the tax.
We part ways joyfully from these people who are NOT part of our Branch.
I support the ALP’s Prue Guillame. I do not support Emily Dunn.
A huge shame that Prue Guillaume didn’t win. Hopefully she has a future in politics, as she is a quality candidate.
Congratulations to Tanya Davies and the Liberals on an excellent and hard-fought win.
Analysis of the results is not pretty reading for Labor. They did not win one booth in the electorate, not even in St Marys. In fact, things were so bad they were not even competitive in Prue Guillaume’s home booths of Glenmore Park. You would have to think, based on the results around the Penrith area, that this was more of a swing against Labor, and nothing personal against Guillaume, who I thought was absolutely outstanding throughout. I sincerely hope that she has a future in a higher level of politics.
Unfortunately, Mulgoa looks as though it’s a Liberal seat for the next eight years.