ALP 2.7%
Incumbent MP
Alison Megarrity, since 1999.
Geography
Southern Sydney. Menai covers eastern parts of the City of Liverpool and western parts of the Sutherland Shire. Suburbs include Chipping Norton, Holsworthy, Moorebank, Wattle Grove, Bangor, Menai and Sandy Point.
History
Menai was first created at the 1999 redistribution. The seat was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Alison Megarrity with a 4.2% margin. She was re-elected in 2003 with an increased 9.5% margin.
In 2007, Megarrity won a third term, but with a reduced 2.7% margin.
Candidates
- Simone Morrissey (Greens)
- Melanie Gibbons (Liberal)
- Jim McGoldrick (Independent)
- Lindsay Johnson (Christian Democratic Party)
- Peter Scaysbrook (Labor)
Political situation
Menai is a very marginal Labor seat, and will be very hard for the ALP to retain.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Alison Megarrity | ALP | 19,276 | 45.4 | -6.5 |
| Steve Simpson | LIB | 18,100 | 42.4 | +5.4 |
| Neerav Bhatt | GRN | 1,915 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| John Collins | AAFI | 1,314 | 3.1 | +3.0 |
| Chris McLachlan | IND | 1,104 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Mark Clyburn | DEM | 751 | 1.8 | +0.8 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Alison Megarrity | ALP | 21,045 | 52.7 | -6.2 |
| Steve Simpson | LIB | 18,912 | 47.3 | +6.2 |
Booth breakdown
The seat of Menai divides very clearly into two areas, between the City of Liverpool and the Sutherland Shire, with a sparsely-populated area between these two population centres.
The ALP won a majority with over 60% in Liverpool, but in Sutherland, with its larger population, the Liberal Party managed 54% of the two-party vote.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Sutherland | 4.5 | 46.0 | 19,721 | 46.4 |
| Liverpool | 4.2 | 61.1 | 15,547 | 36.6 |
| Other votes | 5.3 | 52.7 | 7,192 | 16.9 |
Like Miranda, this shouldn’t be close. Something will have gone badly wrong somewhere if the Liberals don’t win this easily.
Interesting that those Liverpool booths seem to have become quite good for the Liberals at federal level. Is this area more affluent or maybe more Anglo than other parts of Liverpool?
The candidate for the liberal party is Melanie Gibbons, not Alison Gibbons
Yeah, this seat is boned for Labor, although it seems sorta weird to plump Sutherland with Liverpool. You have that happen at state level however.
MDMConnell, it’s probably down to the fact that the Liberals run better campaigns at federal level than Labor at this seat. But it does have less trashy parts than the rest of Liverpool.
This overlays a lot of Hughes federally. Labor is no chance here at all. There will be a 20% swing against Labor.
My prediction – Liberal gain, 20% swing
This seat’s interesting. While it may be a lay-down misere for the Liberals this time, particularly in the Sutherland Shire part of this electorate, the Liverpool part of the electorate may well keep it marginal, thanks to the (now-repudiated) decision to close down libraries in Casula and Green Valley, which had the future of Moorebank Library under the microscope, and under threat of closure. This decision was made by the Liberal Party-controlled Liverpool Council. I’ll be very interested to see the figures coming out of this part of the electorate on election night.
DLH – it won’t have any impact. I know the area well. Polling in Moorebank (which should be a Labor polling booth) suggests that the Libs will even win here. Local politics will have no impact whatsoever in Sydney.
Libs by 9.0% to 10.5%
According to the list of nominations received so far, Jim McGoldrick, a Liverpool councillor elected as an ALP candidate, is running here as an independent.
McGoldrick’s got a hide to run here, considering his support for the closing of Casula and Green Valley libraries, which brought the future of Miller and Moorebank libraries into question. I expect him to be as popular as a dead fish. Might outpoll the Greens, however, which would make them a rotting carcass.
Both Labor and the Liberal parties support the imposition of the Intermodals at Moorebank on Moorebank Ave. The resulting truck movements out of these “proposed” Infrastructures, the size of present day Port Botany, will bring thousand of big rigs into the district together with all the poisonous diesel exhaust emissions that comes with them. If constituents in the eastern part of the Menai electorate think it won’t affect them, think again. The trucks will be rat running through Menai and Bangor to avoid the crush on the M5, they’ll be utilizing Heathcote road in no time at all. Vote Labor or Liberal, and you guarantee the Intermodals will go ahead, to the detriment of 500,000+ people that live in the South West of Sydney. To send a strong message to both majors VOTE 1 Mc GOLDRICK, Jim, if he doesn’t win then at least they will not take our electorate for granted next time around!
How anyone cast a vote for McGoldrick, or anyone who tried to shut libraries down is beyond me. The man lost all credibility when he and the Liberal Party voted to shut down Casula and Green Valley libraries, and put the future of Miller and Moorebank libraries under the microscope. I’m pleased to report that the Council was forced into an embarrassing backdown on that issue, thanks to MP’s like Paul Lynch and Allison Megarrity and the grassroots of the community. They know that libraries are the bedrock of our community.
Regardless of his other policies, no person of conscience can possibly vote for a candidate who voted for libraries to close down.
Ray Van – what about the employment it will generate in the area?
DB, have you seen the area, you cannot add 1 truck in our roads , let alone thousands per day?
Freight Terminals are good, but not 300 meters from homes schools and child cares, think about health before profit, Diesel Fumes kills with Cancer, Asthma, Heart attacks. Before we think of employment, we need to think of our wellbeing and health?
And also there is no guarantee that the locals will get the job?
I agree with Ray, Jim McGoldrick has been fighting this issue with the residents, he is a genuine Independent, he is not giving preference to either party as both wants the Project although the clear rejection from residents.
A genuine Independent? You have got to be kidding me! The bloke’s ex-ALP, for heaven’s sake! He’s a person who voted to shut libraries down! How can he be trusted to act in the community’s best interest, when he’s got a track record like that?
Cast the first stone DLH. We are human we make mistakes and Jim has learnt big time from his mistakes thats why he DENOUNCED the labor party.
I might be harsh on McGoldrick, but it’s mainly due to the library issue, which made me really angry when it was first mooted. Objectively, he will outpoll the Greens, but won’t make any further impact.
What about employment you ask? the DNDSC site was slated fro high desity employee per acre, 12,000 jobs on 80 Hectares, that is until greedy SIMTA got in on the act and downgraded the site to 2,000 low density employee warehousing rate for the 80 hectares. 20,000 jobs on the SME site accross the road down the gurgle because of bad decisions made by acedemics, strategic planners, lobbyists and weak minded ministers. DLH, come to ur community meeting next wedbesday night and be informed what these intermodals will actulally do to our communities. MOorebank communuty center, Nuwarra rd Moorebank 7 pm, bring as many friends as you can.
Big result for the Liberals. Very surprised that McGoldrick polled as well as he did.
DLH – Jim McGoldrick polled as well as he did is because the people of Menai electorate are beginning to see what he is doing for the area. Unfortunately there was not enough time to get the message through. If he started campaigning earlier he might well have won. The intermodal will kill off this area. Let’s hope the elected candidate stick’s to her guns and doesn’t go back to the party line now she’s in! One thing we know is that Jim McGoldrick will keep fighting for our rights regardless!
Highly doubt he would have won with more time Jane. Considering that there were 7.6% of primary votes up for grabs (from previouis independent, AAFI and Australian Democrats) and the 18% direct swing from the ALP to the Coalition, Jim did as well as he could have, as he was splitting that free vote with the new CDP candidate. I seriously doubt he would have achieved even double digits.
What a flogging. I expected bad results out of the Shire, but the efforts in the Liverpool LGA from Labor were just so pathetic. I almost wanted to cry, at how bad the effort was. Gibbons looks as though she has a lot of potential, and was easily the best candidate on merit.
Labor won’t be winning this in the forseeable future.