ALP 2.0% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Frank Terenzini, since 2007.
Geography
Hunter. The seat of Maitland covers all of the City of Maitland and parts of Port Stephens local government area. In addition to Maitland itself, the seat covers places such as Thornton, Woodberry, Millers Forest, Eagleton, Seaham, Bolwarra and Oakhampton.
History
The electoral district of Maitland has existed continuously since 1904. The seat first existed as a single-member district from 1904 to 1920. In that time the party label of the local member changed, but the seat was always held by conservative/liberal parties, ending up as a Nationalist seat.
When proportional representation was introduced in 1920, Maitland was expanded to be a much larger regional seat covering Cessnock and the Upper Hunter, and electing three MLAs. At three successive elections this seat returned the same three MLAs: the ALP’s Walter O’Hearn, Nationalist William Cameron, and Progressive/Nationalist Walter Bennett.
In 1927, Maitland shrunk back to be a seat focused on Maitland itself electing a single-member, and the ALP’s Walter O’Hearn won the seat. He held it until 1932.
The Liberal Party held Maitland continuously from 1932 until 1981, and the ALP has dominated the seat for most of the period since 1981.
The seat was held from 1932 to 1956 by Walter Howarth. He first held the seat as part of the United Australia Party, and then the Liberal Party. He served as Liberal deputy leader from 1946 to 1954.
Howarth retired in 1956, and was succeeded by Milton Morris, also of the Liberal Party. Morris served as a minister in the Coalition state government from 1965 until the government’s defeat in 1976, particularly serving as Minister for Transport from 1965 to 1975.
Morris resigned from the Legislative Assembly in 1980 to contest the federal seat of Lyne at the 1980 federal election. The sitting National Country Party MP was retiring, and Morris came close to overtaking the NCP candidate and winning the seat.
The Maitland by-election in early 1981 was won by the Liberal Party’s Peter Toms. He held the seat for barely six months, losing the seat to the ALP’s Allan Walsh. The 1981 redistribution had made Maitland into a much stronger Labor seat.
Walsh held the seat at the 1984 and 1988 elections, surviving a big swing in 1988. In 1991, a redistribution made the seat stronger for the Liberal Party, and Walsh retired.
Former Mayor of Maitland Peter Blackmore won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1991. He held the seat for two terms, but in 1999 he lost the seat to the ALP’s John Price. Price had previously held the seat of Waratah since 1984, but the seat was abolished in the 1999 redistribution.
Price served as Deputy Speaker from 1999 to 2007, and retired at the 2007 election.
In 2007, the seat was contested by prosecutor Frank Terenzini for the ALP, Mayor of Maitland Bob Geoghegan for the Liberal Party, and former Member for Maitland Peter Blackmore, who ran as an independent. Blackmore outpolled the Liberal candidate, and on the final count the ALP won just under 52% of the two-party-preferred vote against Blackmore.
Candidates
- John Brown (Greens)
- Kellie Tranter (Independent)
- Frank Terenzini (Labor)
- Anna Balfour (Christian Democratic Party)
- Robyn Parker (Liberal)
Political situation
Maitland is a very marginal seat. Liberal candidate Robyn Parker is a strong contender and at the moment Peter Blackmore (who has now returned to serve as Mayor of Maitland) has not thrown his hat in the ring.
In the current climate you would have to favour Parker to win the seat, although Blackmore could be a contender if he were to run.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Frank Terenzini | ALP | 17,823 | 39.7 | -9.2 |
| Peter Blackmore | IND | 11,942 | 26.6 | +26.6 |
| Bob Geoghegan | LIB | 9,218 | 20.5 | -11.4 |
| Kellie Tranter | IND | 3,692 | 8.2 | +8.2 |
| Jan Davis | GRN | 2,262 | 5.0 | -0.5 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Frank Terenzini | ALP | 19,989 | 52.0 | |
| Peter Blackmore | IND | 18,463 | 48.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Maitland have been divided into three areas. Most booths are in the central urban part of the seat, and have been divided into East Maitland and West Maitland. There are also a number of seats outside that area, to the north and east of Maitland itself. These have been grouped as “North-East”.
Independent Peter Blackmore’s vote was fairly consistent, at around 26-27% across the seat. The ALP polled higher in East and West Maitland, with 41% in both those areas compared to 31% in the north-east. The Liberals polled over 27% in the north-east, and under 19% in the larger parts of the seat.
| Voter group | ALP % | IND % | LIB % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East Maitland | 41.1 | 27.6 | 18.7 | 18,546 | 41.3 |
| West Maitland | 41.6 | 26.5 | 18.9 | 12,832 | 28.6 |
| North-East | 31.2 | 26.5 | 27.4 | 5,887 | 13.1 |
| Other votes | 39.3 | 24.2 | 22.4 | 7,672 | 17.1 |
Kellie Tranter is the sleeper candidate. She is well liked because she is moderate. If there’s a protest vote she will get it and the people in Maitland appear to be fed up with the major political parties. It’s incorrect to say that Tillegra dam is her platform. Although she did kick off her campaign with that issue I have since heard her cover other issues of importance to the electorate.
DF,
Do you think Blackmore will run? I have not heard definitely from him yet.
If Blackmore runs, he will certainly win if one of the major parties preference him. Should he not, the Liberals would be favourite.
Reports suggesting that Blackmore won’t run and that he’ll endorse Parker.
She’ll win the seat fairly easily imo.
My prediction – Liberal gain, 15-20% swing.
The 2PP on this seat is not a fair comparison.
Last time we have a 1st time Labor candidate, Maitland’s Liberal mayor, and a popular ex-MP running as an independent. Blackmore should have won last time.
This time we have a full-term incumbant, and a Lib MLC who couldnt get a spot on the ticket.
So Last time Labor had the no name and won. This time they have a name people will know.
If Labor picks up any more than 5% of Blackmore’s vote (which is probably 1/2 of the vote they lost to blackmore last time) then Labor would be hard to beat.
This is a tough one. I’d say the ALP candidate is the least likely of the three to win. My info is that all of the polling in the Newcastle/Hunter/Lake mac area is at a significant historical low point for the ALP. Preferencing will make a difference to this seat and I would suggest that Parker will not preference on her ticket. I agree with morgieb that Parker should win this on the back of ALP preferences, and it will be and Ind v Lib race.
Anthony – I think the ALP Party will hurt regardless of individual candidates at this election. While your arguments would be sound in a normal election, it will have very little on the overall result here. Frank will have a swing against him – it just depends on how much. If he gets less than 35% primary (and I expect it will be about 30%-32% primary) he cannot win. The Independent is the most likely.
You couldn’t rule Labor totally out of this one, but they would be third favourite in my book.
ALP preferences….wtf? Why would Labor preference the Liberals?
Ben, you might want to fix this. Robyn wasn’t “unable to gain a spot on the Liberal LC ticket”, she didn’t contest the preselection, having always intended to run for Maitland.
morgieb – sorry, my mistake. I thought that Blackmore would endorse Tranter. But if he is endorsing Parker, I agree that the Liberal would have to be be favourite here.
@DB – If Blackmore is out of this, then there is 26% of the primary vote up for grabs. Kellie Tranter aint no Blackmore. A single issue candidate fighting against a dam after the biggest flood disaster in Australia’s history. Not perfect timing.
You can assume just over half of Blackmore’s vote came from Labor. What I am saying is there is enough vote potentially in the mix for Labor’s primary vote to recover.
I also note of Tranter’s primary last time, 1000 went to blackmore, 650 to Labor and 400 to Liberal.
Its a shame we dont have a perfect ALP v Lib 2pp. I would be interested in seeing where blackmores preferences went to.
But if Blackmore is in, this’ll be independent gain by 6.45pm.
http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/results/state_elections-legislative_assembly/2007/maitland/perferential_count
Anthony
There will not be a single swing in the primary vote/2PP to the ALP in this election
the 2PP swing estimated in every poll so far is 20% away from the ALP
This is a traditional Liberal seat, The only reason the ALP won it last time was because of a split of the Liberal vote between Blackmore and Georhegan, the combined Liberal vote would have resulted in a 10% 2PP margin to the Liberals
You are no
Tranter will pick up the protest vote. Labor voters are unlikely to swing all the way to Liberal with a strong candidate sitting in the middle. The respected John Hatton is throwing his support behind Tranter and that has not been lost on the electorate.
If Labor preference it would most likely go to Tranter rather than the Greens or Libs.
The fact that Tranter gained 8% last time in the shadow of a much higher profile Independent would suggest to me that she could well increase her vote significantly – enough to be in the contest I don’t know though.
The notional 2PP margin from 2007 is 9.7%.
Antony’s guide lists another candidate, Anna Balfour for the CDP.
Nick C
Some have overlooked the fact that Tranter increased her vote to 13% at the local government election in 2008. I noticed that at some booths she was polling at about 19%.
If there is a slump in the Labor vote she may very well get ahead of the ALP candidate in the primary vote.
It will be an interesting race.
Goodbye ALP!
as pointed out the margin is not 2% but almost 10%……. will depend on the swing and
preferences………. who knows?
Libs by 5.0% to 7.5% ALP gone !
Polling yesterday shows that the Libs are not without hope here. ALP will poll 3rd on primaries it seems. Large swings expected in Maitland central against the ALP. Most likely an Ind gain, followed by the LP, but it’s close.
DB, what makes you say an Indie will win this? Trantor’s probably not big enough to win the seat, and Blackmore isn’t contesting I don’t think.
Tranter is phone polling very well around Maitland and she is an alternative to voting Liberal. Labor preferences could possibly get the Ind over the line. If preference flows are not high, the Liberal candidate will probably win.
Parker will win in a canter
That’s what the bookies want you to think devoid. Good luck with that bet.
Was talking to workers at the pre-poll booth this morning……the Liberal party workers fear Tranter, talking about all her advertising etc. She seems to be firming…it will at least be a Lib vs Tranter 2CP, with Labor handing out HTVs preferencing Tranter.
This is a very close race between the Lib and Ind. Libs well ahead on primaries but with ALP preferences Tranter is a big chance of winning here. A 50/50 bet in my opinion. The ALP won’t hold.
Tranter in local paper this morning. Cool, calm and collected as usual. With an endorsement and support from Hatton the voters know that Tranter is serious about cleaning up the political system. You have to give her credit, I reckon she deserves the votes.
I’m not really sure it’s smart for Labor to be preferencing the Indies in the Hunter. The results in these seats won’t change the election outcome, and surely a sitting Lib/Nat MP in this area will be easier to defeat in 2015 than an Independent?
Good point MDMConnell. The problem with that is that the traditional Labor voters actually like Tranter so they would probably vote for her regardless of what the How to Vote Cards say.
At the same time, the more independents elected, the more likely a minority parliament, which gives stronger bargaining power to an opposition.
It is of course extremely unlikely that the Coalition won’t get a strong majority but less members they have, the less representative they can claim to be.
In any case, I think people are getting tired of these preferencing games and if the candidate genuinely represents a left-of-centre position, which a Hatton endorsed candidate should be, then they should receive a Labor preference.
Tranter polled 3,600 votes last time. She needs triple that to win. Veeeery unlikely. Lib win in Maitland.
I think I’d rather be in Tranter’s position. No preferences are flowing to the Libs.
DF,
I assume the Libs will get the CDPs preferences, although most will exhaust.
Maybe. I think CDP will shave a bit off the Libs but conservative voters don’t always see eye to eye with the Liberals.
DF
perhaps you should look at the result in Newcastle the last time, In OPV, you always prefer to have a big primary led
The primary vote is important but so are preferences. Candidates who don’t get a large primary vote can often win on preferences.
Anthony Green has done an excellent analysis recently about the impact of OPV on state election outcomes. Best to read this before posting…generally his conclusions are that while there are exceptions, a primary vote leader is in a strong position to take a seat under OPV – obviously the bigger the lead the stronger the position.
From everything I hear, Parker is well in front, running a focused and disciplined campaign. I still think ALP will come second…..
Mod lib – ALP won’t finish second. I expect a Liberal gain here now. Yes, they are well ahead on primary voting intentions.
It depends who you talk to mod lib.
Ok it will all be determined by 7.30 saturday. My real point is that you infer too much import in the preference allocation….particularly if Parker is well ahead. I strongly believe her to be in front, therefore all of this talk is indeed academic.
Noone knows if she is ahead mod lib. The votes haven’t been counted! Indeed, only one poll counts.
Well you’d have to say Mod Lib was right. Despite the vain efforts of DF and others to spin it, Tranter has about as much chance of winning as it snowing on election day.
Spoken like a true Liberal believer. Hang onto your hopes Big Fella.
I think DF’s point is that since that polls have not close, we have no idea who the winner is
That would also mean all the opinion polls are worth crap and the KK will still be premier come Sunday
In Newcastle 2007, the ALP had a primary vote led of 2,700 over an independant, while another independant and the Liberal had 13,000, the independent failed by 600 votes, because of high exhaustion under OPV.
The ALP had never won a seat when they are behind on primary vote, and it had only happened 4 times since the introduction of OPV, it might happen again, but I wouldn’t bet on it
Thanks DF. Say hi to Kelly for me.
Mod lib – I am a little more conservative/circumspect than you. Probable Lib gain but wouldn’t write off Tranter. ALP won’t win though.
I wish I knew her Big Fella. I’ll have to settle for the photo on her election posters. Not everyone thinks like the Libs.
Dovif, you are mistaken, there have been quite a few candidates elected from 2nd or 3rp place on primaries. See Antony Green’s statistics below:
Labor has won two, Bathurst and Gladesville in 1995.
Nine were three-cornered contests, where Labor led on first preferences but trailed the combined vote of the Liberal and National candidates. These seats were Dubbo 1981, Murrumbidgee 1984, Bathurst, Burrinjuck, Cessnock and Monaro in 1988, and Burrinjuck, Monaro and Wagga Wagga in 1999.
One was the three-cornered Southern Highlands by-election in 1996, where the National candidate led on first preferences but was overtaken by the Liberal candidate on Labor preferences.
There have been twelve victories by Independents after trailing on first preferences. These were North Sydney (1981), Balmain (1988), Bligh (1988, 1995), Newcastle (1988), Manly (1991, 1995, 1999, 2003), Dubbo (1999, 2007) and Lake Macquarie (2007).
There have been five contests where the Liberal Party trailed Labor and won on minor party and independent preferences. These were the Bass Hill by-election in 1986, and Georges River, Gladesville, Penrith and Ryde in 1988.
So 29 in total over a period of 30 years. I wouldn’t hold your breath about it happening in more than a handful of sets though.
I should have added that 10 of them were contests in which both the Nats and the Libs stood in 3 cornered contests. There are no such contests this time. I would be surprised if more than 2 or 3 candidates get elected this time who were not already ahead on primaries.
This is what happens with OPV. The amazing thing is that it was the ALP that introduced OPV and they have not been beneficiaries of the system.
Maitland on these boundaries…… no Dungog or scone
should be safe labor……… but this is an unusual election will depend on preferences