ALP 12.0%
Incumbent MP
Matt Brown, since 1999.
Geography
South coast. Kiama covers Kiama local government areas and parts of the neighbouring Shellharbour, Shoalhaven and Wingecarribee council areas. The seat stretches from Albion Park in the north to Bomaderry in the south. The seat’s southern border is the Shoalhaven river, with Nowra lying on the other side of the boundary.
History
The current incarnation of the electoral district of Kiama has existed since 1981, and has always been won by the ALP. There was a previous single-member district of Kiama from 1859 to 1904.
Kiama was created at the 1981 election. Throughout the 1970s Kiama had been part of the district of Wollondilly. The first member for Kiama was the ALP’s Bill Knott. Knott had been elected Member for Wollondilly in 1978. He moved to Kiama in 1981 and was re-elected in 1984. He retired on medical grounds in 1986.
The 1986 by-election was won by the Labor candidate, Shellharbour mayor Bob Harrison. He won re-election in 1991 and 1995, retiring in 1999.
Kiama was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Matt Brown. Brown was appointed a minister following the 2007 election. In September 2008, he was appointed Minister for Police in the first cabinet under new Premier Nathan Rees. Three days later he was forced to resign after revelations of his conduct at a party in his office. He returned to the backbench after his resignation.
Candidates
- Gareth Ward (Liberal)
- Adrian Daly (Independent)
- Steve Ryan (Christian Democratic Party)
- Matt Brown (Labor)
- Ben van der Wijngaart (Greens)
- Sandra McCarthy (Independent)
Political situation
A 12% margin would normally be considered safe for the incumbent party. In the current climate, and considering the scandals that have hit the sitting member, Kiama is vulnerable to the Liberal Party. The area is also strong for the Greens, and a strong Greens vote could result in votes from Labor’s left flank not being returned in preferences if Greens voters exhaust their votes. With the emergence of Kiama mayor McCarthy, this seat is a three-cornered contest.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matt Brown | ALP | 21,971 | 50.7 | +4.1 |
| Ann Sudmalis | LIB | 13,224 | 30.5 | -2.1 |
| Ben van der Wijngaart | GRN | 3,759 | 8.7 | -0.6 |
| John Kadwell | CDP | 2,082 | 4.8 | +0.6 |
| Garth Bridge | FISH | 1,680 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Jack Burnett | AAFI | 645 | 1.5 | +0.7 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matt Brown | ALP | 24,910 | 62.0 | +3.7 |
| Ann Sudmalis | LIB | 15,273 | 38.0 | -3.7 |
Booth breakdown
Kiama covers parts of four local government areas: Shoalhaven, Shellharbour, Kiama and Wingecarribee. Booths have been divided between those three areas. Most of the population is evenly divided between Shoalhaven, Shellharbour and Kiama. A small proportion lives in the southern highlands.
The ALP’s majority varies dramatically, from 77% in Shellharbour, a smaller 61% in Kiama, and a slim 52% in Shoalhaven. In the sparsely-populated Southern Highlands area, the Liberal Party won a 54% majority.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Shoalhaven | 8.4 | 52.1 | 12,055 | 27.8 |
| Kiama | 11.6 | 61.9 | 10,734 | 24.8 |
| Shellharbour | 4.6 | 77.3 | 10,126 | 23.4 |
| Southern Highlands | 13.8 | 45.7 | 1,591 | 3.7 |
| Other votes | 9.2 | 61.1 | 8,855 | 20.4 |
I think the ALP will retain this one just. An outside chance for the Liberals.
An independant by the name of Adrian Daly will run in Kiama. He is a solicitor who’s office is in the Albion Park end of the electorate and is also well known in the Kiama township, were he lives. He stands a good chance of getting votes in Kiama and The Northern Part of the electorate, were Matt Brown is strongest.
Neil Menzies – any idea who he will be preferencing?
When Labor easily held this in the 1986 by election some self-delusion followed about what a good omen this was for coming election. But perhaps this seat does have a pattern of not swinging much? Labor more likely to hold than Kogarah?
From memory, the 2007 redistribution moved it down towards the South Coast – making it more marginal. Add the Matt Brown affair to the figures and the Libs should win it fairly easily.
The independent candidate is Adrian Daly. He is a Kiama local, Albion Park solicitor who actually works, lives and knows the seat. He should be seriously considered.
2007 was an excellent vote for Labor here. The extent of the swing will determine the result
This seat is the one to watch. Matt Brown is in serious trouble as for Adrian Daly there is rumors about that Matt Brown has asked him to stand. Adrian Daly hasnt got much of a pull in Kiama and Albion Park apart from his clients. Liberal candidate Gareth Ward has worked very hard and has taken Brown on Albion Park in labor heartland over the Tongarra Road Fencing issue and has won. I suggest you guys do some research before making pre emptive judgments. Jimmy
Jimmy – I agree. Local issues will come to haunt Matt Brown. Interesting what you say about Brown asking Adrian Daly to stand which suggests a preference deal. Gareth Ward, however, is a very big show here. I’d put him as favourite actually.
The fact that Labor Independent, the popular Kiama Mayor Sandra McCarthy has confirmed today (Feb 1 2011)she is nominating for the State seat now makes it impossible for Matt Brown to win.
With preferences from the Greens she could push past the ALP and win the seat.
Or, the Greens could push pash her and win. However, in a massive swing to the LIbs, Gareth Ward could win the seat outright. Clearly Matt Brown is a liability to the ALP, a fact he is the only person not to recognise.
Mark from Kiama – I agree. I think Brown would be feeling pretty ordinary today after that announcement. I’d suggest the Libs are now favoured in this contest given many of the preferences will exhaust.
McCarthy was the Labor candidate for the federal seat of Gilmore in 1998. At the last Kiama council election her group polled 38% of the primary vote. Albeit without the benefit of local knowledge I would suspect she is a very serious contender.
Preference split will be everything in this seat. I am expecting a high exhaustion rate which will put the Liberals over the line. One that is difficult to call with confidence.
This one is a messy one.
Brown was guilty of making a tool of himself rather than any particular venality but it hit the media and, added to general oppobrium attached to this Govt, has served to make his survival questionable. Had he not got himself into strife, he may well have survived.
Predicting how the vote may split here looks somewhat akin to playing hopscotch on a minefield.
The seat seems like a real wildcard, particularly given Daly and McCarthy will poll well. They’ll probably take votes off Labor, giving the Libs a win under OPV, but an independent may get up if they get ahead of Labor and Labor does a deal with them.
I’ve pencilled in a gain to the Liberals, but with no confidence.
When you look at the quality of the mainstream candidates you have to wonder… Matt Brown seems like a reasonable person who is with the wrong party and who has screwed up along the line. He has to be a non-starter.
Gareth Ward seems like someone who is pretty smart at Civics, but who is with a party that is moving further and further to the right every nano-second. Of course that may not occur to the trusty denizens of this electorate.
Ben van der Wijngaart is a good person with very good qualities and experience. But the Greens seem to be lost in a world of negating the realities of the world…. But the Green brand is strong in some quarters, even if the hard core of the party seem like a bunch of basket weavers.
I don’t know Sandra McCarthy but I reckon an independent with Labour sentiments who is visible must be a strong contender and would have to be a better choice than a Liberal on any day of the week.
My prediction – Liberal gain, 15-20% swing.
Another candidate listed on Antony’s guide is Steve Ryan for the CDP.
The Liberal strength in this seat is to be found south of Gerringong, more specifically the Shoalhaven area which frankly has more linkage to Nowra (major centre of South Coast). One can expect them to rack it up well in this area esp given this is Ward’s home turf.
The question is how the ALP vote will splinter in the Kiama LGA (Kiama & Gerringong) and more particular further north in the Shellharbour LGA (the ALP heartland). How much will leach to Libs …. what will the impacts of the Indies …. how will prefs run/exhaustion rates ??
Had Brown not made a silly bugger of himself, I suspect he had a good chance of surviving but realistically he’s no chance now. Lib is probably favoured but this may be a messy split. Looking forward, I would not be overly confident of holding this seat as a Lib under “normal conditions” with these boundaries.
these boundaries are as liberal as a Kiama seat can be. The North Norwa end is relatively new to the electorate. If the other candidates don’t want a Liberal then they need to swap preferences
Gareth Ward, the Liberal candidate has his campaign office in the north, in Albion Park and is campaiging hard. The Independent Sandra McCarthy should poll very well within the Kiama LGA, and in fact take a lot of votes of the ALP, but her vote in the northern third of Shellharbour and the larger third to the south, Shoalhaven, is hard to guage. It is possible Gareth might win outright or Sandra McCarthy the Independent could win in a close race. Certainly if the ALP don’t want a Lib, they should preference Sandra!
but as the Greens know, Matt Brown has always run a ‘Just Vote 1’ ticket, despite any discussions otherwise, and frankly he is more likely to preference Gareth before he preferences Sandra or Ben van der Wijngaart for the Greens.
Sandra could win every booth in Kiama, but need preferences outside Kiama to move past the ALP and win the seat. It is true that Gareth would be unlikely to hold it for more one election, as Matt has a personal negative vote, unless Matt Brown suddenly decides to resign to spend more time with his money (sorry family).
Today’s Illawarra Mercury poll suggests that the boundaries are suiting the Lib candidate fairly nicely, Mick….
Matt Brown needs to go, his is an embarrasment and does not represent me. He is apotty mouth who is out of touch with t he people. The greens should not get a look in or it will be bye bye Kiama, with marine parks etc.
Would love a marine park near Kiama….
In any case, I would consider this a foregone conclusion. I would consider the $1.25 being offered for the Lib to be quite good value.
Here is Sandra McCarthy’s website: http://www.sandramccarthy.net/
What’s happening with preferences here?
I might’ve tipped the Liberals to win, but McCarthy’s presence really muddies the waters, so I’m tipping Brown to win in a toss-up. I note with interest that Brown increased his majority in 2007 as the Labor vote across NSW went south. It could go either way.
Libs will win this in a canter, Polling consistently at around the 60/40 level.
Candidates rarely resort to this message.
Greens are preferencing McCarthy. What are other candidates doing?
Labor are preferencing Independent McCarthy number 2 ( complete card, with Liberal Gareth Ward 6) but no other prerferences. In a recent local poll Gareth Ward was 42, Matt Brown 27, and Independent McCarthy 19 with the Greens ‘s Ben van der Wijngaart on 9. Since then therehas been a slide in the polls state wide way from ALP, and an increase in ‘Other’. If Sandra McCarthy can get like 25, and ALP, 22, with the Liberals still on 42, the Independent could win, but rational thought suggests as candidates exhaust, Gareth Ward the Liberal will fall across the line.