ALP 11.1%
Incumbent MP
David Borger, since 2007.
Geography
Western Sydney. Granville covers parts of the City of Parramatta and the City of Holroyd. Suburbs include Guildford, Granville, Merrylands, Greystanes and Harris Park.
History
The seat of Granville was first created in 1894, when single-member electorates were introduced. The seat has existed ever since, except for three elections in the 1920s when Granville became part of the multi-member district of Parramatta. The ALP has held the seat continuously since 1938.
The seat was won in 1938 by Bill Lamb. Lamb participated in the second Lang Labor breakaway party from 1940 to 1941, but was loyal to the ALP after 1941. He served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1947 to 1959. In 1962 he lost Labor preselection and retired.
Lamb was defeated for preselection by Parramatta mayor Pat Laherty. He held the seat until his retirement in 1984.
Laherty was succeeded in 1984 by Laurie Ferguson. He held Granville until 1990, when he resigned to run for the federal seat of Reid. He held Reid until 2010, when he moved to the seat of Werriwa after a redistribution. He served as a frontbencher in the Labor opposition prior to 2007, then as a parliamentary secretary upon the election of the federal Labor government. He returned to the backbench after the 2010 election.
The 1990 Granville by-election was won by the ALP’s Kim Yeadon. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 1995 to 2003, and retired in 2007.
Granville was won in 2007 by Parramatta mayor David Borger, who has served as a minister in the Labor government since 2008.
Candidates
- Alex Sharah (Christian Democratic Party)
- Tony Issa (Liberal)
- Richard Kennedy (Greens)
- Paul Garrard (Independent)
- David Borger (Labor)
Political situation
Granville is a normally-safe Labor seat, but an 11% margin could be vulnerable to the Liberal Party in 2011. Alternatively, if Garrard runs a strong campaign he could also undermine the Labor vote, giving himself or the Liberal candidate a chance of winning. He won just under 10% of the vote in 2007, and in the current environment could poll substantially more.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Borger | ALP | 20,178 | 48.1 | -10.7 |
| Eddy Sarkis | LIB | 11,833 | 28.2 | +2.9 |
| Paul Garrard | IND | 3,993 | 9.5 | +9.5 |
| Karen Pender | CDP | 1,874 | 4.5 | +1.0 |
| Pauline Tyrrell | GRN | 1,676 | 4.0 | -1.1 |
| Lily Su | UNI | 1,623 | 3.9 | +1.6 |
| Peter Dowman | AAFI | 752 | 1.8 | +0.4 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Borger | ALP | 22,076 | 61.1 | -8.1 |
| Eddy Sarkis | LIB | 14,072 | 38.9 | +8.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Granville have been divided into three areas. South covers Guildford and South Granville. Central covers Granville and Holroyd. West covers Greystanes and Merrylands West.
Borger’s majority was much bigger in the centre of the seat, with 65% of the two-party vote, compared to less than 60% in the west and south. Paul Garrard polled much more strongly, with 13%, in the south of the seat, compared to 7.7% in the west and just under 9% in the centre.
| Voter group | IND % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 7.7 | 57.1 | 13,300 | 31.7 |
| South | 13.1 | 59.7 | 12,167 | 29.0 |
| Central | 8.9 | 65.7 | 8,769 | 20.9 |
| Other votes | 7.8 | 65.3 | 7,693 | 18.3 |
Any reason why this is so marginal given similar seats are so safe? And any reason why the swing was so large last time?
Looking at the preference distributions for Granville in 2007, of the just under 50% of Garrard’s votes that didn’t exhaust, 64% went to the Liberals, I expect this figure to be a bit higher this time around.
Certainly this is one I’d say Labor will hold against the swing, while seats further up the pendulum like Oately, Kogarah, and Strathfield are likely to fall to the Liberals.
BTW what is the demographic of Merrylands that makes it so much better for the Libs than surrounding areas? I notice at fed level too Merrylands is 50-50 while other parts of Reid and Prospect are safe Labor
Granville is a Labor seat and will remain so. despite the 11% margin
It is not a middle class area
I tend to agree that despite the 11% only, the Liberals probably couldn’t win this even on their best day.
There is already talk on the street of a boil over with Ind Paul Garrard to win – watch this space….
Given Garrard and Issa have both been on council from this area forever (as an ex ALP) and also given the ALP primary votes in statewide polls, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he got up.
Garrard is ex ALP, Issa has been around forever as a Lib and has a lot of community connections too
I don’t want to see Labor win this seat again. They simply don’t deserve it with their poor track record over the past decade or so. Granted the coalition probably aren’t much better (after all, politicians are all the same – they lie through their teeth, twist the truth, tell you what you want to hear and when you want to hear it, but fail to deliver when the time comes, not to mention being very creative at finding scapegoats for their bungles and mishaps) but at least we can’t blame the coalition for the poor state of our hospitals, singular lack of public transport planning and delivery of new infrastructure for a growing burgeoning city………
In 1932 Labor lost this from a margin of 20+% I think it was the safest seat they lost maybe history will repeat?
I would be surprised if Borger gets knocked over – he is one of the better performers in the government and I don’t know if it would be as easy for people in that area to change their vote as it would be in Oatley, for example.
Then again, I was shocked when Peter Anderson got knocked over in Penrith in 1988, so what would I know, really.
My prediction: Labor retain, 4-7% swing to Liberals.
Antony’s guide lists Alex Sharah as a candidate for the CDP here.
Didn’t Garrard run in 2007 as a result of a pre-selection dispute? Clearly his candidacy as an ex-ALP member whose prefs didn’t flow back to Labor had an impact on the margin and has probably made this appear more marginal than it should be.
@Nick C – No, Borger was just endorsed without nominations being called.
Borger had his heart set on Parramatta. Right were not willing to accept him, and the Fergusons had bigger fish to fry, so a snap decision was imposed.
Garrard’s issue with Borger is that Borger is too much of a hack, and did not have enough community background. In response, Borger threatened his council pre-selection.
Strong campaigns from all three so far. Garrard has signs in his strong areas around Woodville Road at Granville and Merrylands. Borger and Issa have signs up everywhere.
This is very, very tight. The Liberals fancy winning this, and with Issa, they have the right candidate to ensure that this seat wouldn’t be a one-termer, and without being cynical, has the right ethnic grounding to be very competitive in this seat (Granville as an electorate has a very strong Middle Eastern demographic).
Garrard won’t win the seat, despite his best efforts. He has a strong community profile, but is probably using this as a proxy to ensure re-election to Parramatta Council in 2012. His preferences are vital to the prospects of a Liberal victory.
Labor are campaigning strongly in this seat. Borger’s signs are just as creative as Rees’ in Toongabbie, but I feel that he is a fair bit of trouble, here, but it is very, very tight.
My prediction: Too Close To Call
We have never seen an election campaign fought in seats such as these. I feel the ALP has pretty much given up on the south and south-west except on the very strongest of margins. I still think the ALP will hold this one just.
Possibly Liberal gain.
If Garrard and Issa preference eachother, then Labor will definitely lose this seat…
Garrard seems quietly confident of a boilover if the Parramatta Advertiser is to be believed. A huge sign for Garrard on Parramatta Road heading west towards the intersection of Woodville Road. Have also seen signs for Garrard in Merrylands and Parramatta. Still don’t think he can win, but he is definitely the spoiler in this one.
Don’t think he can win. I’m of the view that Labor will hold if Garrard doesn’t direct prefs, but Lib will win is Garrard directs to Coalition.
Borger’s apparently getting Green preferences. Probably gonna be enough to hang on, unless Garrard directs to the Coalition…
This seat has just become ridiculously close following Greens’ decision to preference Borger. And I’m willing to bet cash american dollars that Garrard will be preferencing Issa.
I would not be too worried about Green preferences here. Their primaries are extremely low. They came 5th at the last election. CDP and Gerrard preferences will flow the co-alitions way. Very close in every sense. Polling has neck and neck before preference distribution.
Agree with DB here. The Greens are fundamentally useless in the south-west. Full of emotion and no logical argument at all. The CDP will comfortably outpoll them here and in Smithfield.
Garrard’s the key to the seat, not the Greens. Greens preferences won’t be enough to get Borger over the line.
I know Green preferences aren’t worth much. But just saying they should let ALP hang on a bit in the face of Garrard’s preferences.
I agree with DB this one will go down to the wire
I hope Borger hangs on, he’s one of the few genuinely talented people left in the parliamentary Labor Party.
I agree that Borger has talent, but in terms of being the Member for Granville, I’ve never felt that he has acquired the local gravitas to be the Member. It’s no secret that he would rather have been the Member for Parramatta. Personally, I would have rather have seen Garrard as the ALP member, rather than Borger. The National Executive really should have left this alone, when they had the chance.
This is one of those seats where it’s not just the poor performance of the Government that has it in jeopardy, it’s the local member himself. It’s clear that he’s not a Merrylands or Granville person. It’s a shame, as it’s commonly regarded that he’s a competent minister. If he loses, his political career is over. There’s nowhere else to go. No wonder the ALP are ‘backing Borger!’
Still too close to call at the moment.
“If he loses, his political career is over. There’s nowhere else to go.”
Too early to call that. He is very popular within the Left.
The obvious place to go would be the Federal seat of Parramatta, but whether the voters would be impressed with him deposing Owens, who I think is a decent local member is another story. He could always join Garrard at Parramatta Council again!
Garrard and Libs are pref each other – one of them will win. If the harder Lab voters back Garrard he can get over the line.
That’s it then… another labor seat lost and Granville may finally get a local member…
They could always find a spot for Borger in the Upper House, although I suspect Tebutt and Firth will always have their eyes on possible vacancies after Saturday.
He can go work for Macquarie Bank…
Looks like a lot of unknown Liberal MPs to be elected in Western Sydney seats – probably oncers, and they’ll be out in 2015.
They could turn out one hit wonders but if Liberal do a decent job. then these seats should become swinging seats from now on… With the increase in Wealth of Australians I think the Labor party is losing relevance… Some former Evatt foundation ALP guy wrote about this recently… everyone is talking about the hammering of labor at this election but honestly long term do you think they could actually recover unless they do something drastic like give local members more of a voice?
People who think Garrard will come second are dreaming. He is virtually unknown outside of his ward in the north. His ward is incidentally where Tony Issa is the most popular. They’ll actually eat into each other’s votes there (but I expect the pref. flow will be more than good enough to not hurt Issa). Also people who keep saying that Garrard will steal Labor votes because he is former Labor, remember, for christ’s sake, he hasn’t been Labor for well over a decade and a half now. He is more just a moderate independent than anything.
I’m going to give this to Libs but with no confidence.
Boutros: Garrard and Issa are both from Parramatta Council, not Holroyd. Hardly local. Furthermore, all this talk about the irrelevance of the ALP, mate, trust us, we’ve heard it all before. The conscription split, 1930’s split, the 1950’s split. And as recently as 2007 people were talking about how the Liberal Party will die and look where they are now.
crazedmongoose, I asked for how Garrard was polling in Granville, because I had a feeling he could outpoll Borger, but DB’s put that to bed. Polling around 10-15% at the moment.
I wouldn’t call Garrard unknown. He’s been on the Council for 37 years in the Woodville Ward, which takes in Granville and the eastern parts of Merrylands, and has been a Mayor five times. So he’s not exactly green in terms of name recognition, but he’s not widely recognisable, especially in Woodpark and Greystanes. In pure terms, he’s Parramatta Council’s version of Allan Ezzy, George Paciullo, John Aquilina and Janice Crosio in their local areas. A local legend.
Both Garrard and Issa are Granville locals, whereas Borger lives in North Parramatta. That will play some factor in tomorrow’s count, as Borger is not well liked in Merrylands or Granville. You mentioned Holroyd Council, and I can tell you that there exists, other than Ezzy who’s well past his best, absolute political lightweights. You could not honestly, maybe with the exception of Eddy Sarkis, and at a stretch, Ross Grove, both Liberals, up as a credible candidate for State or Federal Parliament. In fact, has Holroyd Council ever turned up a State or Federal Member? I doubt it. Neighbouring Blacktown Council has a reputation as an MP factory.
Prediction: Issa 42%, Borger 32%, Garrard 13% primaries. 2PP Coalition 52/48
Very pleased that Issa won. Granville gets a member who is local. Commiserations to Borger, who might be praying for an Upper House seat. Garrard polled around the same as in 2007, which was really disappointing. I expected better from him.
Apparently Borger was completely swamped on the ground on the day. In fact their campaign has been quite swamped for a while. I’d say maybe we misallocated resources from Toongabbie but….considering we only won that by like 1%….
Issa has the Holroyd part of the electorate to thank, for him winning this seat. The vast of majority of booths on 2PP were comfortably won by the Liberals. Borger did not have a hope of winning this seat. He did really well to actually match Issa stride for stride in the non-Holroyd parts of the electorate.
Because Issa owes so much to the Holroyd area, where he has no personal vote or links whatsoever, he’ll need to be active on the ground; otherwise, this is a seat where Labor could easily win back again in four years.
As for Garrard, he’s done enough to ensure his re-election next year to Parramatta Council, but I really did think he could do a lot better than what he did.