Dubbo – NSW 2011

IND 0.9% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
Dawn Fardell, since 2004.

Geography
Central West NSW. The seat covers all of Dubbo, Forbes and Parkes local government areas, a large part of Cabonne and Narromine areas, and a small part of Lachlan Shire. The main centres of the seat are the towns of Dubbo, Parkes and Forbes.

History
The electoral district of Dubbo has existed continuously since 1930. For the first three decades it was a marginal seat contested by the ALP and the Country Party. The seat was held by Coalition MPs from 1959 until 1999, and it has been independent-held ever since 1999.

A previous district with the name of Dubbo existed from 1894 to 1904. The newly-created seat of Dubbo was won in 1930 by Alfred McClelland of the ALP. He had previously held one of the seats in the multi-member district of Northern Tablelands from 1920 to 1927. In 1927, he lost the single-member district of Armidale.

McClelland lost his seat at the 1932 election. His son Doug served as a senator in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s and was a Whitlam government minister. His grandson Robert now serves as federal Attorney-General.

The Country Party’s George Wilson won Dubbo in 1932. He held the seat until his death in 1942.

At the 1942 by-election, the ALP’s Clarrie Robertson, with the Country Party pushed into third place behind an independent. Robertson had lost Dubbo to Wilson by 159 votes in 1941, and went on to hold the seat until 1950.

In 1950, Robertson lost Dubbo to the Country Party’s Robert Medcalf. Medcalf moved from his former seat of Lachlan, which he had held since 1947.

Robertson defeated Medcalf in 1953, and held it until 1959, when he lost to the Liberal candidate, Dubbo mayor Les Ford. Ford held the seat until his death in 1964.

The 1965 Dubbo by-election was won by Liberal candidate John Mason. He served as a minister in the Coalition state government from 1975 until the government’s defeat in 1976.

Liberal leader Peter Coleman lost his seat at the 1978 election, and Mason was subsequently elected as Leader of the Opposition. He lost the Liberal leadership early in 1981, and retired at that year’s election.

At the 1981 election, the National Country Party’s Gerry Peacocke won the seat. The ALP candidate slightly outpolled Peacocke on primary votes, but Peacocke won the seat comfortably on Liberal preferences.

Peacocke retired at the 1999 election, and later went on to serve as Mayor of Dubbo. Following Peacocke’s retirement, the Nationals lost Dubbo to independent councillor Tony McGrane, who won with a 14-vote margin.

McGrane was re-elected in 2003 with a 55% majority, but died in 2004.

The 2004 by-election was won by independent Dubbo councillor Dawn Fardell, who gained a similar majority to McGrane. Fardell was re-elected in 2007, but with a reduced 0.9% margin.

Candidates

Political situation
Dubbo is a very marginal seat. Fardell holds it by a narrow margin and hasn’t managed to build up a large majority like some more successful independent MPs. In the current climate, the Coalition looks set for a landslide victory, and the reputation of independent MPs may have been damaged in areas like Dubbo by the recent decision of federal independents Windsor and Oakeshott to support the ALP government. Considering these factors, Fardell will struggle to retain her seat.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Greg Matthews NAT 18,702 42.6 -1.2
Dawn Fardell IND 18,296 41.7 +8.0
Adrian Hough ALP 4,889 11.1 -4.6
Jan McDonald GRN 1,074 2.4 -0.3
Michael Sichel CDP 952 2.2 +2.1

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Dawn Fardell IND 20,584 50.9 +0.6
Greg Matthews NAT 19,877 49.1 -0.6

Booth breakdown
Booths in Dubbo have been divided into four areas. Booths in the urban Dubbo area have been grouped together. These booths make up about half of regular votes in the seat. Booths outside of Dubbo itself have been divided into “north”, “central” and “south”.

Independent MP Dawn Fardell polled a majority of 56% in the centre and 52% in Dubbo. The Nationals won a slim 51.3% majority in the rural north, and a massive 60% majority in the south of the seat.

Polling booths in Dubbo at the 2007 state electon. Dubbo in yellow, North in green, Central in blue, South in orange.

 

 

Voter group ALP % IND 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Dubbo 8.9 52.4 16,692 38.0
Central 11.8 56.7 7,830 17.8
South 16.4 39.3 6,329 14.4
North 11.7 48.7 3,241 7.4
Other votes 10.9 51.7 9,821 22.4
Two-party-preferred votes in Dubbo at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the town of Dubbo at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the town of Parkes at the 2007 state election.

14 COMMENTS

  3. Also a kinda picky point, but one which should kinda be mentioned: Fardell lost most of her by-election margin to a redistribution. As happens with independents, their vote is counted as zero in the parts of the electorate that get added from elsewhere in a redistribution, so the notional margin of independents usually decreases slightly. Fardell got a notional swing to her, just not a very big one.

  4. This might be a good test as to how people actually see the Windsor and Oakshott issue. I suspect the Nats will win in a canter here as I know for a fact from recent polling in Lyne that Oakeshott is significantly on the nose in his electorate. The only chance for Fardell in my opinion would be to clearly and eqivocally show an allegiance to the co-alition prior to the election, in the event that there is a hung parliament.

  6. I have been an independent support for years, I supported the late Tony McGrane, I have never been in involved in any political party nor have I ever voted for a political party, but this year that will all change, I will be voting for Troy Grant, I have not seen Dawn achieve much at all except a grant here and there, nothing major, most major achievements for Dubbo has been through the community fighting for it, Lourdes Hospital is a great example where people power achieved results, along with the new draft paln for the base hospita, I believe if people did not stand up and fight we would not see these two major constructions started. I have heard Dawn on 2DU and her problem is she is too worried about what is happening on council, she is constantly making negative remarks about two councillors who I believe are holding Dubbo City Council accountable, listening to her on 2DU has really turned me off her, When she first was elected she was passionate and caring but now she is completely different, rude, a bit a smarta!!. The power went to her head, she forgot about the real reason why we elected her, sorry Dawn I have supported you at the last 2 elections, this time I will be changing my voting pattern, we need a change for the better, so for the first time ever I will be voting for the National Party.

  7. I was also taken back when Dawn went to the support meeting of Rorque Poisson, how can a State MP support such behaviour, a person who has misrepresented himself, a person who told everyone he had an MBA, but three years on he still has not produced it, If Dawn was a strong leader she would not have followed the boys club and attended that meeting.

  8. Dubbo person – I have an interesting question for you. Does the outcome of the federal election (the fact that two former Nationals who, from their constitutents, would have been expected to support the co-alition in a hung parliament but didn’t) sway your vote to the conservatives in this election? Do others share your view in your local area?

  9. The southern parts of the seat where the Nats did best are the areas which were added to the seat in the redistribution. Fardell didn’t have the advantage of incumbency in those areas, which she will have this year, and this may provide an added buffer for her.

  11. Interesting to point to Gippsland East, but Independents haven’t had such a strong presence in Victoria in recent years whereas they have a stronger standing in NSW politics, so I’m not sure a Victorian comparison works well.

  12. I’m staying in Dubbo now with family (2 ex-Newtown people). That’s 2 more votes for the Greens, which may mean their vote doesn’t have another minus sign next their last tiny per cent. I often travel out of the Greens ghetto that I live in (inner west), to both regional and outer suburban areas, where the level of Greens support has plateaued and has even declined. It is puny, insignificant, and according to everyone I talk to there, will never grow beyond that. If the party does have “hard men” (I mean sensible strategists rather than the odd people I hear so much from in Leichhardt and Newtown), I wonder if it ever expects that situation to change?

    Not fishing for an answer. I’m just pensively musing with my laptop while looking at some beautiful river gums by the Macquarie River. What a lovely place Dubbo is…

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