Cessnock – NSW 2011

ALP 12.4%

Incumbent MP
Kerry Hickey, since 1999.

Geography
Hunter. Cessnock covers the town of Cessnock, most of the City of Cessnock, and small parts of the surrounding Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and Singleton local government areas. The two main centres in the seat are the towns of Cessnock and Kurri Kurri.

History
The electoral district of Cessnock was first created in 1913. It was merged in the multi-member district of Maitland in 1920, but was restored in 1927. In that time, it has been won by the ALP at all but one election. It was won by the Liberal Party in 1988, before being won back by the ALP in 1991.

Cessnock was won in 1927 by the ALP’s Jack Baddeley. He had served as member for the multi-member district of Newcastle since 1922. He served as a minister in a number of Labor governments, from 1925 to 1927, from 1930 to 1932 and from 1941 until his retirement in 1949. He served as Deputy Premier from 1941 to 1947 and served as acting Premier for a period in 1948.

The ALP’s John Crook won the 1949 by-election, and held the seat until his retirement in 1959. He was succeeded in 1959 by George Neilly, who had been a member of the Legislative Council since 1954.

Neilly retired in 1978, and was succeeded by Bob Brown. He served less than one term, resigning in 1980 to take the federal seat of Hunter. He moved to the federal seat of Charlton in 1984. He served as a federal minister from 1988 to 1993, and retired in 1998. He was succeeded in Charlton by his daughter Kelly Hoare, who held it until 2007.

The 1981 Cessnock by-election was won by Stan Neilly, the son of the former MP George. He held the seat at the 1981 and 1984 elections, but in 1988 he lost Cessnock by 275 votes to the Liberal Party’s Bob Roberts, a Singleton shire councillor.

Roberts only held the seat for one term, losing to the younger Neilly in 1991. Neilly held the seat until his retirement in 1999.

Cessnock was won in 1999 by Cessnock councillor Kerry Hickey. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 2003 to 2007. His career was buffetted by a number of scandals, including drink driving charges in 2006 and revelations that he had an affair with a staff member and had fathered a child.

Candidates

Political situation
Cessnock is a heartland Labor seat, and would normally be considered safe. In the current climate, however, a 12% margin does not appear very safe at all.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kerry Hickey ALP 24,026 54.8 -3.8
Trevor Hollingshed NAT 13,754 31.4 +12.8
James Ryan GRN 6,053 13.8 +6.7

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kerry Hickey ALP 25,347 62.4 -6.7
Trevor Hollingshed NAT 15,264 37.6 +6.7

Booth breakdown
Booths in Cessnock have been divided into five areas. Those around the town of Cessnock have been grouped together as “Cessnock”. Those in Kurri Kurri and surrounding areas to the east of Cessnock as “Kurri Kurri”. Booths in Lake Macquarie and Newcastle council areas have been grouped as “East”, and those to the west of Cessnock itself grouped as “West”. Three booths in the north of the seat around the border with Singleton shire council have been grouped as “North”.

The ALP won large majorities of over 60% in the east of the seat, the north and in Kurri Kurri. In the town of Cessnock the ALP managed a slim 53% majority. In the west, the Nationals secured a majority just short of 51%.

 

Polling booths in Cessnock at the 2007 state election. North in red, West in blue, Cessnock in orange, Kurri Kurri in green, East in yellow.

 

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
East 12.3 69.4 11,422 26.1
Kurri Kurri 16.9 66.0 10,053 22.9
Cessnock 12.9 53.4 8,466 19.3
North 12.1 62.3 3,443 7.9
West 15.1 49.1 3,282 7.5
Other votes 13.2 63.0 7,167 16.4
Two-party-preferred votes in Cessnock at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Cessnock at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the towns of Cessnock and Kurri Kurri at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in the towns of Cessnock and Kurri Kurri at the 2007 state election.

17 COMMENTS

  2. I think Labor is a better chance of retaining this compared to most of the city seats but the Liberals might just get over the line. It’s a 50/50 call.

  3. In reply to DB.

    That is true, like most marginals and 50/50 calls, (such as seats on the Central Coast), it will come down to the strength of the candidates, the amount of campaigning that the candidates do and the amount of Young Libs/Labs and branch members campaigning.

  4. The Newcastle Herald reports ALP candidate Clayton Barr received a hostile reception when he turned up at a protest against the removal of demountable classroom at Black Hill Primary School.

    I get the impression this is shaping up as a very interesting contest. It’s one of only two Labor held seats which the Nationals are contesting, so they are reportedly putting full resources into it.

    Another Cessnock councillor, Neil Gorman, was the originally endorsed Nationals candidate, but later withdrew. Davey is a popularly elected Mayor and there was a large swing against the ALP at the council election in 2008.

    Dale Troy, as well as having been elected to council as a Liberal, was also the Nationals candidate for this seat in 2003. Ian Olsen also previously contested it as an independent in 1999, when, bizarrely, One Nation finished second.

  8. The critical gains for the Nats need to be in Cessnock central and by running the mayor (along with a Liberal Council Member running as an independent) I think this can fall. Probably end up with a 2PP of around 53%

  10. The problem for the Liberals are if the Right wing vote is split between Troy and Davie and the ALP wins this seat

  12. Dale Troy is certainly spending some advertising dollars on TV. I think it will be a National vs Labor 2CP though, cant see the independents getting enough primaries. If there is a dark horse, it may be James Ryan, if he can get ahead of Labor on primary.

  13. Ryan is preferencing Troy. What are the other candidates doing? I assume Ryan will be ahead of the independents on primaries, does he then get prefs from them which may push him ahead of Labor?

    This could be one of the most fascinating seats on Saturday night.

  14. I’m not writing off Labor here just yet. With respect to the Nationals candidate, she hardly represents a huge change for the electorate.

    I’ll tip an upset and Labor by less than 1%.

  15. Indeed, it may be that the independents mainly split the conservative vote and Labor still finish ahead on primaries.

  16. Ok, preferences here are as follows:
    Stapleford and Barr not directing. McCudden preferencing Davey. Davey preferencing McCudden then Troy. Troy preferencing Ryan then Davey, and as mentioned above, Ryan preferencing Troy.

  17. Dale Troy actually wasn’t too far from winning this – almost 20%, only 4.5% behind the Nat. Labor lost 20% of primary vote but only 8% after preferences… strange, especially since the Greens were well down too. Another two independents got 10% between them.

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