ALP 3.9%
Incumbent MP
Geoff Corrigan, since 2003.
Geography
Southwestern Sydney. The seat of Camden covers all of the Camden local government area, including the suburbs of Camden, Narellan, Harrington Park, Leppington, Catherine Park and Mount Annan, and a number of suburbs in the City of Campbelltown, including Raby, Eagle Vale, Eschol Park and Kearns. These suburbs include newly-developing areas on the fringe of Sydney.
History
The electoral district of Camden has existed for two different periods: from 1859 to 1920, and again since 1981.
The original district elected two MLAs from 1859 to 1889, and then three MLAs from 1889 to 1894. It continued as a single-member district from 1894 until its abolition in 1920.
Throughout that period Camden never elected a Labor MP, and was won by a variety of Protectionist and Free Trade MPs, becoming a safe Liberal/Nationalist seat by the time of its abolition.
Camden was restored at the 1981 state election, by which time Camden had become part of the fringes of the rapidly-expanding Sydney metropolitan region. Many of the most populous suburbs in the seat today developed throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
The latter seat of Camden has an unusual history of changing parties against the trend of state politics, on two occasions it was gained by a party while losing a state election, and on two other occasions a governing party gained the seat while losing ground statewide.
Camden was won in 1981 by Ralph Brading of the ALP, gaining power in a Labor landslide. In 1984 he was defeated by the Liberal Party’s John Fahey.
The original seat of Camden covered an area from Warragamba to Mittagong, and the redistribution before the 1988 election reduced the seat to a smaller area around Camden itself. The new redistribution was much improved for the ALP.
Following the redistribution, Fahey moved to the neighbouring seat of Southern Highlands. Fahey became a minister in the Greiner government in 1988. He went on to serve as Liberal premier from 1992 to 1995, and then resigning to contest the federal seat of Macarthur. He held Macarthur from 1996 to 2001, serving as Minister for Finance in the first two terms of the Howard government.
In 1988, while the Labor Party was suffering a massive defeat statewide, Peter Primrose managed to gain the seat of Camden, defeating Liberal candidate John Ryan by only 31 votes. Ryan went on to serve as a Liberal member of the Legislative Council from 1991 to 2007.
Primrose only held Camden for one term, losing in 1991 to the Liberal Party’s Liz Kernohan. Another redistribution had expanded Camden to cover most of Wollondilly Shire, a shape it maintained until the 2003 election. Primrose was elected to the Legislative Council in 1996 and now serves as a minister in the Labor government.
Kernohan was a former Mayor of Camden, and she held Camden for three terms, retiring in 2003. She then returned to Camden Council in 2004, but died only seven months later.
Camden was won in 2003 by the Mayor of Camden, Geoff Corrigan, who was running for the ALP. Corrigan was re-elected in 2007. His margin in 2003 had been 5.4%, which expanded to 8.7% in the redistribution, with parts of the seat in Wollondilly Shire removed from Camden. He held on with a reduced 3.9% margin.
Candidates
- Danica Sajn (Greens)
- Chris Patterson (Liberal)
- Domenica Zappia (Family First)
- Geoff Corrigan (Labor)
- Colin Broadbridge (Christian Democratic Party)
Political situation
Camden is a very marginal seat with a long history of being won by the Liberal Party. It will be very difficult for the ALP to hold on.
2007 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Geoff Corrigan | ALP | 18,658 | 44.8 | -5.3 |
Chris Patterson | LIB | 16,071 | 38.6 | +3.8 |
Allen Powell | GRN | 2,150 | 5.2 | +0.4 |
Judy Morris | CDP | 1,578 | 3.8 | +3.7 |
Chris Bowen | AAFI | 1,228 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
Katryna Thirup | IND | 1,131 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
Leon Belgrave | IND | 503 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
Chris Buchtmann | IND | 346 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Geoff Corrigan | ALP | 20,333 | 53.9 | -4.7 |
Chris Patterson | LIB | 17,370 | 46.1 | +4.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Camden have been divided into four areas. A quarter of the seat’s population lives in the City of Campbelltown, including the suburbs of Raby, Eagle Vale, Claymore, Kearns and Eschol Park. Those booths have been grouped together. Booths in Camden local government area have been divided between those around Narellan, those around Camden itself, and those in the north of the seat.
The ALP won a massive two-thirds majority in the Campbelltown part of the seat, and a smaller 55% majority in Narellan. The Liberal Party won over 55% in Camden and the northern parts of the seats.
Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
Narellan | 4.6 | 55.5 | 11,574 | 27.8 |
Campbelltown | 5.6 | 67.7 | 9,344 | 22.4 |
Camden | 6.3 | 42.7 | 7,535 | 18.1 |
North | 3.4 | 44.2 | 6,722 | 16.1 |
Other votes | 6.1 | 55.4 | 6,490 | 15.6 |
Another one the Liberals will win easily and will have a 15% margin at least, at the end of the day.
Like Wollondilly, this seat has some very strong ALP booths in Campbelltown, this helped the ALP in 2007, but shouldn’t be relied on this time round.
Peted – I actually think you will find that in some of those Campbelltown booths, the Liberals will outpoll the ALP on primary votes this time round.
Campbelltown itself is safe Labor, but the new housing estates around it are becoming Liberal.
Two further candidates here are Domenic Zappia for Family First and Colin Broadbridge for the CDP.
My prediction: Liberal gain, 20% swing