Lyndhurst by-election, 2013

27 April, 2013

Cause of by-election
Tim Holding, Labor Member for Lyndhurst, resigned from Parliament on 18 February. Read the profile for the seat of Lyndhurst at the 2010 state election.

Margin – ALP 13.9%

Incumbent MP
Tim Holding, 2002-2013. Previously Member for Springvale 1999-2002.

Geography
Southeastern Melbourne. Lyndhurst covers a majority of the City of Greater Dandenong and part of the City of Casey, specifically the suburbs of Bangholme and Lyndhurst and parts of the suburbs of Dandenong South, Hampton Park, Keysborough, Lynbrook, Noble Park and Springvale.

History
Lyndhurst was created in 2002. It was won by the ALP’s Tim Holding, who had previously been elected to Springvale in 1999, before it was abolished in the 2002 redistribution.

Holding has served as a minister in the Labor government since the 2002 election and was re-elected in 2006.

At the 2010 election, Holding held on to his seat, although the margin was cut from 21.5% to less than 14%. Holding served as Shadow Treasurer until he resigned in February 2013.

Candidates
The ALP is running Martin Pakula, who has been a Member of the Legislative Council for the Western Metropolitan region since 2006. Pakula served as a minister in the Brumby government from 2008 to 2010. The Greens are again running 2010 candidate Nina Springle.

  • Martin Leahy (Sex Party)
  • Nina Springle (Greens)
  • Hung Vo (Independent)
  • Bobby Singh (Independent)
  • Stephen Nowland (Family First)
  • David Linaker (Independent)
  • Martin Pakula (Labor)
  • Geraldine Gonsalvez (Democratic Labor Party)

Assessment
Lyndhurst is a safe Labor seat, and should be easily retained.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Holding ALP 19,820 55.47 -9.82
Tony Holland LIB 9,946 27.83 +5.14
Nina Springle GRN 2,191 6.13 +1.72
Heather Wheatley FF 1,744 4.88 -1.54
Hung Vo IND 1,277 3.57 +3.57
Yien Wang DLP 444 1.24 +1.24
Gordon Ford IND 311 0.87 -0.31

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Holding ALP 22,912 63.91 -7.57
Tony Holland LIB 12,941 36.09 +7.57
Polling places in Lyndhurst at the 2010 state election. Hampton Park in blue, Keysborough in green, Springvale in orange.
Polling places in Lyndhurst at the 2010 state election. Hampton Park in blue, Keysborough in green, Springvale in orange.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Lyndhurst have been divided into three areas. Hampton Park covers the small number of booths in the City of Casey, which are separated from the remaining booths. Those other booths have been grouped as Springvale, at the northern end of the seat, and Keysborough.

The ALP’s majority varied from 61% in Hampton Park to 67% in Springvale.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Springvale 4.00 74.97 14,613 46.13
Hampton Park 4.54 68.11 5,397 17.04
Keysborough 3.33 71.08 5,280 16.67
Other votes 6.14 66.66 6,386 20.16
Labor two-party-preferred votes in Lyndhurst at the 2010 state election.
Labor two-party-preferred votes in Lyndhurst at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Lyndhurst at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Lyndhurst at the 2010 state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Should be a pretty striaght forward by-election. While Pakula is currently an MLC for Western Metro, he is from the South-East and has significant links to the area, so I can’t see any viable indi challenge, though a conservative indi may well run and take a bit of the Lib vote. Given the troubles with the Victorian Government, I’m expecting a Labor retain with an increase in primary vote from the 2010 election. Strong chance of informal getting the next highest primary vote.

  5. To second Melbourne Tory (and quote Officer Barbrady from TV’s South Park): “Alright people, there’s nothing to see here!

Comments are closed.