Cause of by-election
Sitting Liberal MP Matt Kean announced his retirement on 18 June 2024.
Margin – LIB 8.0%
Incumbent MP
Matt Kean, since 2011.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Hornsby lies entirely within Hornsby shire, covering Hornsby, Asquith, Berowra, Cowan, Mt Colah, Mt Ku-ring-gai, Cherrybrook and parts of Dural, Galston and Waitara.
Hornsby first existed as an electoral district from 1927 to 1991. It was restored in 1999. It has always been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors.
The first Member for Hornsby, James Shand, represented the seat for the Nationalist Party and then the United Australia Party from 1927 to 1941. He served as a minister from 1935 to 1938, and became an independent shortly before the 1941 election.
In 1941 Shand shifted the neighbouring seat of Ryde, holding it until his death in 1944.
In 1941, Hornsby was won by independent UAP candidate Sydney Storey, defeating the party’s official candidate. Storey joined the newly-formed Liberal Party in 1945, and held the seat until 1962, when he lost Liberal preselection and unsuccessfully ran as an independent.
John Maddison won Hornsby as a Liberal candidate in 1962. He became a minister in 1965, serving in the role until the government lost power in 1976. In 1973, a redistribution created the new seat of Ku-ring-gai, and Maddison moved to the seat. He held it until his retirement in 1980.
Neil Pickard won Hornsby in 1973. He became Minister for Education in early 1976, serving for a few months before the Coalition government lost power. He became a minister in the first term of the Greiner government from 1988 to 1991. In 1991, the seat of Hornsby was abolished at the 1991 redistribution, and Pickard retired.
Much of the former seat of Hornsby was absorbed by Ku-ring-gai, which moved north. Parts were also absorbed by Northcott. In 1991, Ku-ring-gai was held by Premier Nick Greiner, and Northcott was held by state minister Bruce Baird. Greiner retired in 1992, and the Ku-ring-gai by-election was won by Stephen O’Doherty.
Baird became Liberal Party deputy leader in 1992, serving in the role until 1994. He served as a minister until his retirement at the 1995 election. Northcott was won in 1995 by Liberal Party state director Barry O’Farrell.
The redistribution prior to the 1999 state election substantially redraw boundaries in northern Sydney. The seats of Northcott, Gordon, Eastwood, Ermington and Gladesville were all abolished, with the seats of Hornsby, Parramatta, Epping and Ryde created, and Ku-ring-gai moved substantially to the south.
O’Farrell took on the seat of Ku-ring-gai, while O’Doherty moved to the seat of Hornsby. O’Doherty retired in 2002.
The 2002 Hornsby by-election was won by Liberal candidate Judy Hopwood. She won re-election in 2003 and 2007, surviving a challenge to her preselection in 2007.
Hopwood retired in 2011, and the preselection was contested by Matt Kean and Nick Berman, mayor of Hornsby. After losing preselection to Kean, Berman ran for Hornsby as an independent, but Kean retained the seat for the Liberal Party. Kean was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Kean joined the ministry in 2017, and was promoted to Treasurer in 2021 upon the resignation of Gladys Berejiklian and the election of Dominic Perrottet as premier.
Kean was re-elected in 2023, but returned to the backbench after the government was defeated.
- Brendan Clarke (Independent)
- Tania Salitra (Greens)
- Justin Thomas (Sustainable Australia)
- Sheila Millgate (Animal Justice)
- Benjamin Caswell (Independent)
- Marc Hendrickx (Libertarian)
- James Wallace (Liberal)
- Steve Busch (One Nation)
- Roger Woodward (Independent)
Assessment
Hornsby has a long history as a Liberal seat. It doesn’t have an enormous margin but the Liberal Party are favourites.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matt Kean | Liberal | 23,451 | 43.3 | -11.6 |
| Melissa Hoile | Labor | 13,418 | 24.8 | 4.0 |
| Tania Salitra | Greens | 7,738 | 14.3 | 3.3 |
| Steve Busch | One Nation | 4,298 | 7.9 | 4.5 |
| Jeffrey Grimshaw | Liberal Democrats | 2,125 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Benjamin Caswell | Independent | 1,557 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Justin Thomas | Sustainable Australia | 918 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Adrian Dignam | Independent | 661 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Informal | 1,308 | 2.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matt Kean | Liberal | 26,506 | 58.0 | -8.8 |
| Melissa Hoile | Labor | 19,163 | 42.0 | 8.8 |
Booths in Hornsby have been split into four parts. The main urban centres of Berowra, Hornsby and Cherrybrook have been grouped together, and the semi-rural parts have been grouped as “west”.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, with 72% in the west and with a vote ranging from 52.2% in Berowra to 57.7% in Cherrybrook.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in Cherrybrook to 19.1% in Berowra.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Hornsby | 17.4 | 53.6 | 14,233 | 26.3 |
| Cherrybrook | 12.6 | 57.7 | 8,832 | 16.3 |
| West | 9.8 | 72.1 | 4,539 | 8.4 |
| Berowra | 19.5 | 52.2 | 3,979 | 7.3 |
| Pre-poll | 12.4 | 59.8 | 13,343 | 24.6 |
| Other votes | 13.9 | 58.8 | 9,240 | 17.1 |
Election results in Hornsby at the 2023 New South Wales state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, the Greens and One Nation.
This will be a Labor seat some time within the next two decades. They should run a candidate at every opportunity and build a profile for local Labor candidates similar to Ryde.
I don’t see Labor fielding a candidate this time because it’s out of reach. Also, the Liberals had a shocker here last election where the swing was above average and that was against a sitting Treasurer and high-profile MP, and now, there’s room for a Liberal correction. The implosion of One Nation will mean many of their voters will shift to the Liberals.
Two decades is a long time. Labor’s unlikely to win this for a while given the strong Liberal and ON vote west of Berowra Creek. An eastward redistribution to Waitara and a boom in apartment dwellers (renters and first-home buyers) could boost Labor’s standing.
Are areas west of Berowra Creek is known for a large Christian Right population (I heard North West is too)? Would that explain the large One Nation vote given Matt Kean was known to be in the progressive wing?
@ Marh
The semirural parts west of Berowra Creek look simmilar to Warrandyte, Wonga Park etc but maybe more religious? Dural seems like Donvale/Park Orchards.
I really hope the next State Redis (I prefer sooner than later, though I doubt enrolment discrepancies will be enough for one will be done before 2028) pushes Hornsby entirely east of Berowra Creek/Galston Gorge. It must be quite difficult servicing an electorate with bad physical connections and very different demographics.
Drawing a seat from Pennant Hills to Brooklyn (incl. Hornsby LGA parts of Wahroonga, and maybe some of the Ku-Ring-Gai LGA parts too) would be within quota I think (Esp. given Pennent Hills has buses to Hornsby but Not Epping, while Beecroft has buses to Epping but not Hornsby)
Pennant Hills to Brooklyn, bounded by Berowra Creek to the west and the LGA boundary to the east, was indeed a possibility at the last state redistribution. I included this as an alternative in my suggestion. Some of the flow-on effects were undesirable. See the last page for a map:
https://elections.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/80be7635-b1d2-42fc-bb68-6a6f45e8adec/27-n-weston-part-2.pdf
How do you come up with the numbers for redistriubtions?
In 1978 Labor almost won in 1981 based upon a slight boundary change they would have won on a repeat of 1978 figures. … alas there was a small swing to the liberals in 1981. There has not been a repeat of 1978 voting since
Hornsby electorate would vote in a corpse if it was endorsed by the Liberals.
@Marh, West of Berowra Creek and along Old Northern Road, are semi-rural townships with populations that are older than the median, more likely to be Christian and Australian-born. Like a lot of similar communities that are 50 to 100km from Sydney’s CBD, there’s a strong One Nation vote. Last year’s vote might’ve been driven by anti-Kean, anti-incumbent factors.
The lack of a left candidate could galvanize support for lib Dems
The voters of Hornsby have a choice this by-election. They can keep the status quo, or vote for an independent to shake things up a bit.
The Liberals have held this seat too long and have grown complacent and take it for granted they will be voted back in.
There are three independent candidates this time around and Labour didn’t even bother to run a candidate.
It’s time to make a difference and put someone new in the seat to give both major parties a kick up the bum and do better.
Benjamin Caswell (IND) has an interesting HTV card order with 4 preferences.
2. Brendan Clarke 3. One Nation 4. Greens.
With 78.6% counted the Liberals currently have 64.3% of the TCP vote against the Greens.