Hinchinbrook by-election, 2025

@CJ @ Scart @ NP

My Rankings
1. Victoria – i think there a least a small chance they can topple the Allen Labor Government. even more now that they a have fresh leader. Im confident they will at very least push Labor into minority government. Id say Liberal win in 2030 if they cant this time.

2. Queensland – The government is only a year old and has raced out of the blocks but very rarely does a government get tossed out and then brought back with the same government that was thrown out. Redistribution is pending and should help the LNP in seats like Ipswich West, Gaven and Bundaberg. Macalister, Springwood, Llyton maybe even Logan could be interesting. I cant see the LNP losing the next election as they were put back into place in the abortion debate that slowed their win in the late stages of the election and given theres been no attempt to change abortion laws thats something Labor wont be able to use again.

3. WA – can honestly say i think the lib / Nats should be able to get very close at the next election if they can even half the swing they got in March they should be knocking on the door of government. I think they will fall just short of the required 30 seats. 27 is my guess at this stage. Again redistribution pending. They should have no trouble winning all the regional seats bar Kimberley and maybe fall just short in Bunbury. Should have no problem winning in 2033.

4. NSW – Minns seems to be doing well. No major blunders should hold onto government although they might be reduced to a deeper minority if the coalition can win key seats back. The LNP problem is the number of traditional seats held by inds (Orange, Murray, Wagga and Barwon). 2031 might be possible if the federal labor government starts to infect the State party with any issues as the federal election would be only a couple months after.

5. Tasmania – Depends on how the minority government goes this time round. Problem for Labor is they dont want to work with the Greens but cant get enough seats by themselves. Wont even begin to speculate on when this government will change.

6. Federal – The current opposition is a basket case that seems to be struggling to find their identity and wont win in 2028 even if they could manage some miracle the senate would be impossible to deal with unless they pulled off a miracle there as well.

7. Northern Territory – will depend on how the new government goes. Northern Territory can throw up anything. Given Labor is reduced to non Darwin seats and the current govt seems to be doing well cant see them losing in 2028. Labor should probably recover a couple Darwin seats but not enough to regain government. 2032 would probably be the earliest it falls.

8. The aging Labor government might encounter issues if they run into some problems or the Libs can present a good enough case.

BASKET CASE
9. South Australia – Libs are in disarray after losing two former leaders seats to the government in by elections. No chance in 2026 and will be lucky if can even hold half their current seats. 2030 probably no chance. either. best possible hope 2034 so see you in about a decade.

dont know enough about BCC to even make a comment. Also Nether Portal you did number 7 twice.

“I cant see the LNP losing the next election as they were put back into place in the abortion debate that slowed their win in the late stages of the election and given theres been no attempt to change abortion laws thats something Labor wont be able to use again.”
@john_ Crisafulli has kicked the can down the road by using his numbers to prevent the issue being raised in this term. It will be an Election issue in 2028.
The antiabortion lobby is pretty irrational, they’d prefer a Labor governent to LNP doing nothing.
Then you’ll have Katter urging them on and Labor raising the spectre of the Religious Right in Australia and a future Handmaids Tale.
I’d say it might damage LNP in Hinchinbrook now, that strip is one of the most Catholic areas in Australia.

Katter will probably be off the federal parliament by then

LNP will gain this. 40%+ primary. KAP and One Nation are battling for second. Either way LNP wins on One Nation preferences against Katter or Labor preferences against One Nation.

With less then 24 hours til polls close and we hopefully get a result. I’m gonna say KAP retain on 56% 2pp. But il have a 2% margin of error. So 54-58%. I’m not ruling out a surprise lnp win. If they can get close and get marks measure they may be able to win it in 2028.

It’s an underrated contest that should have high anticipation, as it’s the first litmus test for the LNP.

Is the abc running a count on air?

If the lnp can get the Kap somewhere in that range they can count it as a win

Only a win should be counted as a win 😆

The ECQ will have the best data tonight. The ABC might have a blog or a live story on their website. Zero chance they broadcast a by-election which won’t change the government.

Yeah the LNP could have just run dead if they weren’t serious about trying to win – once the seat falls back to KAP it’s pretty much under lock again, even if the LNP make it close it’s not a meaningful win if they don’t clinch the seat.

why run dead they are in contention to win. if your not in contention just dont run in the first place.

That’s hardly democratic though, isn’t it?

Voters deserve a range of candidates in any election to express their opinions fully.

I’m just making the point that Crisafulli didn’t put his own neck on the line here for a 6% swing – that ultimately means very little to anyone, they need to win the seat for any sort of tangible benefit

I’d say this is the last good day Crisafulli will have as Premier.
He’s been a combination of Abbott and Dutton, he’d changed nothing and worked hard making Labor follies work.
What he shoulda done was cancelled the Olympics on Day 1, booted the Police Comissioner and sent all the PS Heads to work in a donga at the Normanby 5 Ways, like Rudd did when Goss won.

@Gympie lol. Cancelling the Olympics would make him look like a joke. People want the Olympics.

Also he hasn’t been an Abbott or a Dutton

And they are contractually obliged to host them. Cancelling them would make the govt look like a joke like in Victoria.

+ even a lot of Miles supporters I’ve seen prefer his Olympic plan to Labors QSAC BS. The only people who oppose it are elderly Labor voting NIMBYs in inner-city Brisbane, Campbell Newman, Max Chandler-Mather and Jonathan Sriranganathan.

@Real Talk They broadcasted the Dunkley by-election last year, which would’ve reduced Labor’s majority to 1 if they lost (they didn’t)

Spectacles are never popular with the people who have to pay for them.
The Allan Government isn’t wearing any grief from voters over it, [contractors might be a different matter].
ATM the Coal companies are screaming that the level of royalties means they’ll hafta close more mines in Qld, but Crisafulli says bad luck.
Guess where those royalties are going?

That was a federal by election though

ABC should be covering it, a lot has happened since October 2024.
Anything short of a win is a rejection of Crisafulli, a Labor win would be a watershed in Qld politics.

The qld abc may have coverage though

Gympie KAP holds this seat by 13%. A 6-7% swing wil pl be a neutral result. Anything more the LNP can sell as a win. Winning the seat will be a major victory for Crisafulli. KAP getting a swing is a problem for him. Labor winning the seat and il eat my liberal membership card.