Cause of by-election
Sitting Liberal MP Dominic Perrottet announced his retirement on 19 July 2024.
Margin – LIB 4.8%
Incumbent MP
Dominic Perrottet, since 2019. Previously member for Castle Hill 2011-2015, member for Hawkesbury 2015-2019.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Epping mostly covers northern parts of the City of Parramatta, along with the southern end of Hornsby Shire. It covers the suburbs of Epping, North Epping, Beecroft, Carlingford, Dundas Valley, Telopea, Oatlands and North Rocks.
History
The seat of Epping was created at the 1999 election. It has been won by the Liberal Party every election since 1999.
Epping was first won by Andrew Tink in 1999. He had been the Liberal Member for Eastwood since 1988. Eastwood had been a safe Liberal seat in the area since 1950.
Tink held Epping at the 1999 and 2003 elections. He announced his retirement in 2006. Liberal preselection for Epping was won by former prosecutor Greg Smith, who defeated former Sex Discrimination Commissioner Pru Goward. She went on to win the seat of Goulburn, and Smith won Epping.
Smith was re-elected to a second term in 2011. He served as Attorney-General in the O’Farrell government from 2011 to 2014.
Smith retired at the 2015 election, and Liberal candidate Damien Tudehope won the seat.
Tudehope shifted to the Legislative Council in 2019, making room in Epping for Liberal MP Dominic Perrottet, who had represented Castle Hill and then Hawkesbury from 2011 until 2019.
Perrottet won Epping in 2019, and became Liberal leader and NSW premier in 2021. Perrottet led the Coalition to defeat in 2023, and stepped down as Liberal leader soon after.
- Monica Tudehope (Liberal)
- Edgar Lu (Independent)
- Duncan Voyage (Greens)
- Jerry Wang (Independent)
- Rob Cribb (Libertarian)
Assessment
Epping has traditionally been a strong area for the Liberal Party. Labor may have had a chance but in their absence the Liberals should be re-elected.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dominic Perrottet | Liberal | 25,439 | 48.9 | -5.4 |
| Alan Mascarenhas | Labor | 17,599 | 33.9 | 5.4 |
| Phil Bradley | Greens | 5,489 | 10.6 | 0.7 |
| Victor Waterson | Independent | 1,322 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Carmen Terceiro | Animal Justice | 1,091 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Bradley Molloy | Sustainable Australia | 1,045 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Informal | 1,279 | 2.4 |
2023 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dominic Perrottet | Liberal | 26,648 | 54.8 | -6.5 |
| Alan Mascarenhas | Labor | 22,013 | 45.2 | 6.5 |
Booths in Epping have been split into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.7% in the south-west to 55.2% in the north-west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.8% in the north-west to 13% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 13.2 | 53.5 | 11,622 | 22.4 |
| South-West | 9.8 | 52.7 | 8,471 | 16.3 |
| North-West | 9.1 | 55.2 | 6,850 | 13.2 |
| Pre-poll | 9.3 | 55.5 | 13,986 | 26.9 |
| Other votes | 10.9 | 56.5 | 11,056 | 21.3 |
Election results in Epping at the 2023 New South Wales state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, the Greens and One Nation.
Is Labor worried that the results will be embarrassing if they did run?
Interesting (but somewhat not surprising) announcement, but Labor has announced it won’t contest the by-elections in Epping, Hornsby, or Pittwater, with Chris Minns stating “a swing against us would be a massive distraction”.
Neither seat is winnable for Labor. If Labor were to run in Pittwater, they would split the non-Liberal vote and with OPV, make it harder for the teal to win.
To be honest, if they contested Hornsby or Pittwater they’d be completely mad, but not contesting Epping seems really odd. It’s not like a Northern Beaches/North Shore seat that is completely out of reach. They’ve got nothing to lose here really given that they’d still be on 45 seats if they lose and if they miraculously pull out a win they’ll need to rely less on the likes of Piper, Greenwich and McGirr to stay in government.
They would likely suffer a swing against them here and that will create news stories not favourable