Epping by-election, 2024

Of the two by-elections, Hornsby should be a safe hold/retain for the Liberals. Epping is going to be tighter, but I still think the Liberals are favoured to retain the seat given Labor’s weakness federally that may bleed down the ballot to the state level, provided they nominate a decent candidate who is not too controversial.

In terms of timing/dates for the by elections, they could be held in conjunction with council elections on 14 September but that is not likely because by-elections for Orange and Canterbury (held because two MPs resigned to run federally, Andrew Gee and Linda Burney respectively) were held after council elections in November 2016.

More likely is that they will be deferred to late October or November 2024, similar to the 2016 by elections mentioned above.

The Libs should be able to hold unless they preselect a complete dud or an outspoken China hawk.

The Liberals will almost certainly hold this, regardless of their candidate choice, and Labor will probably preselect their 2019 and 2023 candidate Alan Mascarenhas again.

On top of the general trend of swings against incumbent governments, I’m inclined to suggest that Labor will suffer a decent swing against them in the north-eastern half of the seat (Beecroft, Cheltenham, Epping, North Epping) as a consequence of Labor’s housing policies. Much of this is NIMBY territory to a certain extent, and there’s an increasingly substantial amount of community opposition to increased development in the area (especially north of the M2).

Liberal retain, probably around 57-60% 2PP.

Liberal retain. I agree with @DC5806 with the TPP prediction. Labor may not bother running in either seat. Victorian Labor didn’t bother running in Warrandyte which is more marginal than this.

Could perrotet be goijg federal?

@John potentially since he’s young.

Who knows what he’ll do in a few years, but it’s all over the mainstream media today (ABC, Fairfax/Nine mastheads, news.com.au, etc.) that Dominic Perrottet is moving to Washington D.C. to take a job as BHP’s US head of corporate and external relations.

@Myles I did say above that he was going for a job in Washington.

Perrottet’s profile may have been the only reason it didn’t flip in 2023. You could imagine Epping being a Labor target with a strong candidate and actual campaign resources behind if it wasn’t the seat of a not unpopular premier.

I think Labor will want to contest here – they want to hang on to overlapping Bennelong and Parramatta federally, and NSW Labor would want more seats under their belt to avoid being a one term government and help in (admittedly not particularly hard) hung parliament negotiations. Labor will be running a high profile local government campaign in Parramatta at the same time – a campaign for Epping would go fine on top.

Labor did get 20+% swings in some of the booths that used to be in the old Paramatta where Geoff Lee got but I’d imagine Perrottet running blunted the swings in Epping and Beecroft.

Sorry Nether Portal, I didn’t (and still don’t?) see your comment saying that.

There were big swings in neighbouring seats last election – Parramatta and Ryde, both had retiring members, and in Hornsby. I’d say that Perrottet’s profile helped minimise the swings in Epping.

I reckon Labor might run as a gauge for how they will do federally in Bennelong, though it seems that the proposed Bennelong will be entirely outside this state electorate.

Given that the Libs had preselected candidates for Bennelong and North Sydney, and one of those seats will be abolished, I wouldn’t be surprised if one candidate runs for Epping to avoid a dual for the remaining federal seat.

@Myles it’s on the Epping 2023 thread I think which is closed now.

Also, the big swings in Parramatta were mostly from the retiring member factor. Same as in Ryde. Geoff Lee and Victor Dominello were both popular MPs that had been in their seats since 2011 for Lee and 2008 for Dominello. However it was a smart move to run Jordan Lane, then-Mayor of Ryde City Council, as the Liberal candidate for Ryde.

Interestingly in 2023 both leaders represented multicultural seats. And I think it was the first time ever that a Liberal Premier represented a seat where most people speak a language other than English at home. That doesn’t surprise me though given that since 2011 a lot of really multicultural seats have been Liberal seats or key seats for the Liberals (e.g Epping, Holsworthy, Kogarah, Oatley, Parramatta, Riverstone, Ryde and Winston Hills in addition to seats like Castle Hill and Kellyville which are quite multicultural).

Gladys Berejiklian’s old seat of Willoughby has a large Chinese population and is quite multicultural. Same can be said for Jodi McKay’s old seat of Strathfield. Both were leaders in 2019.

Apologies at the time of the 2019 election Michael Daley was leader not Jodi McKay but after the election Jodi McKay was leader

The Liberal seats which are multiethnic mentioned above are middle class to affluent or some cases such as Holsworthy, Winston Hills and Parramatta socially mixed none are mainly working class.

surely this will be held on the same day as hornsby

Libs will probably recover now that they’re in opposition

Anyone have any ideas when these by election are gonna be helf

John, see my comments at the start of this thread where I thought the likely date would be in late October or early November this year (possibly in conjunction with the ACT or Queensland elections). It is likely too late for them to be held in conjunction with the NSW council elections on 14 September unless writs have already been issued.

Monica Tudehope will run for the Liberals. She’s an ex-staffer of Perrottet and the daughter of Damien Tudehope, the LOTO in the Legislative Council.

@Votante thanks for the update. Is she the only candidate who is running here so far?

@Votante – Thanks for the update. It’s good they have a female candidate to encourage diversity, plus she has strong connections to the area, with her dad being the MP for Epping from 2015-2019, and having worked as a staffer for the outgoing MP for Epping.

I’m predicting a Liberal retain with Labor’s housing policy being something that could drag them down in the northern parts. I think Labor will run to I guess get a gauge for next federal election as some parts are in Bennelong but Labor would have already preselected a candidate here if they wanted to make a big challenge.

@Yoh An – as mentioned on the top tight of your screen, the by-election is being held 19 October, alongside the by-election in Hornsby.

Also will add on that the huge swing to Labor in the areas that were added from Parramatta in the redistribution will probably be reversed as Geoff Lee’s personal vote will be non-existent so some voters there may be inclined to go back to the Liberals.

I’ve predicted for a long time Liberal retain and I’m sticking with that. Maybe a small swing against the Liberals due to Dominic Perrottet’s personal vote but it won’t fall to Labor.

Does anyone remember the Earlwood by-election?

I just noticed this is the same day as the ACT election.

@James, I wrote earlier that Labor would only run to test out their support in the lead up to the fed election in Bennelong. The proposed boundaries of Bennelong are entirely outside Epping (the seat) if I’m not mistaken. The demographics are similar to the inland parts in someways – large Chinese, Korean and Indian and other South Asian communities and high-rise apartment dwellers.

@votante
I suspect at least epping suburb will be added back to bennelong after community opposition to being moved into berowra.
Especially noting doing so would help Bradfield be more centered on Chatswood (by adding Lane Cove North, Chatswood West and rest of Chatswood, and removing its far north)

The Liberals would get a boost from the new metro line opening, and with Labor unlikely to run a candidate (it seems). Chris Minns has ridden the new metro line with Mike Baird and Dominic Perrottet to celebrate its first week. It’ll actually give Perrottet a credibility boost as he ends his state political career. Jo Haylen was there too. The metro from Epping to Central takes more or less time as the train but it is faster if you’re going to North Sydney or Barangaroo or Martin Place.

Greens have candidates for both Epping and Hornsby. No Labor candidate yet in either seat.

Ben – can you open a comments section for the Hornsby by-election section please?

@Votante – do you know who the Green’s candidate is? Can’t seem to find reference online.

I’m surprised Labor hasn’t selected a candidate yet unless they are waiting to see how the Parramatta City Council elections go. North Rocks/Epping/Dundas are the corresponding wards. @DC5806 you’re right they’ll probably select the same candidate again which would assist with less campaign costs (using previous corflutes, etc). If Labor focuses here of the 3 by-elections it could stretch Liberal resources defending here and Pittwater on the same day.

The Greens candidate is Duncan Voyage. I actually found out via Wikipedia. Duncan has an Instagram page mentioning his candidacy.

Labor won’t run in these seats even though they would want to win them to form a majority government. Same as Pittwater which is impossible for them to win.

@Votante – I meant the Hornsby one.

@NP – that would be quite something. At a council level, the GRNs polled quite well at the upper end of the electorate (in Hornsby Council part). A LIB vs GRN 2CP would be interesting. If LAB didn’t contest, that gives the LIBs chance to divert resources to Pittwater. I guess we’ll find out shortly, but strategically, Labor should really contest this one out of all of them. Yes, there is a risk of having a swing against LAB, but if the LIBs loose Pittwater on the same day, it really is a moot point.

@Politics Obsessed they should contest Epping but I don’t think they will. However, if a Labor seat went to a by-election (which could happen in this term, e.g Yasmin Catley in Swansea or Jihad Dib in Bankstown as relatively controversial ministers) then I think the Coalition would contest it. Why? They’re in opposition, Labor’s in government, governments sometimes don’t contest by-elections they don’t think they can actually win.

Labor will contest this seat, but they are likely to wait out the council elections. They could easily run the previous candidate again, but given the results in the last election, they would be prudent to consider running a younger candidate (especially of an Asian background) to try to grab more of the votes in Epping/Carlingford (which are quite densely populated now), extending into young families in the suburbs to the West. I have this seat a 50/50 chance, maybe better for Labor if they run the right candidate.

We have to wonder what impact the retirement of Dom will have on the result. Tudehope is a recognisable name and connected to Dom, but was Dom a popular leader or did he actually depress the vote?

I don’t see Labor running a candidate in Epping. It’s a long term liberal seat and they’re already in government. Liberals will lose Pittwater. They’ll focus on 2027.

@ Politics Obsessed, my mistake. I thought there was a Greens candidate in Hornsby but must’ve misread it. Hornsby has Sustainable Australia and ONP candidates. The Greens rarely miss a by-election.

@NP, what’s controversial about Jihad Dib as a minister?

Labor could easily run Mascherenhas again. All-in-all it was a good result last year and it would be cheap. Benson Koschinski would be a good pick for Hornsby given his Berowra result was pleasing. But Hornsby is a diffifcult area to win, and Benson Koschinski would be the stronger candidate for Epping as he lives in the seat, is younger and probably has more of a teal/greens appeal that could win votes in the Epping, Carlingford and northern part of the seat.

But maybe Melissa Hoile will also run again?

The Liberal Party is likely to heavily invest in Epping, especially given their close call in 2023, where the sitting Premier nearly lost to an underfunded candidate from outside the area. Labor’s strategy here remains unclear. One option could be to continue with the current candidate, who performed reasonably well, though slightly below the state average swing. Alternatively, Lyndal Howison could be considered, particularly if Laxale loses his federal seat and positions himself to contest Ryde in the State Election. Another possibility might involve parachuting in an Asian candidate, such as Tu Le or former Cumberland Deputy Mayor Kun Huang, who has recently opted out of the council race—perhaps signaling intentions for this seat. This could be a bid to secure a win either now or in the future, as demographic shifts and increased living density are expected to favor Labor. However, the internal dynamics within Labor, much like those within the Liberals in this region, are likely to be highly complex.

@BumbleBeecroft no, Dom didn’t “nearly lose”. He had 48% of primaries and got 54% TPP. Marginal, yes, but it wasn’t a near loss.

54% TPP for a sitting premier is a near loss in my books. Labor started their campaign late and resourced it poorly, and the Liberals know it. I actually think Labor could be favoured to win this seat if they treated it as winnable.

Think the federal vote in this seat is a couple of percent better. Also the ex premier’s personal vote may be worth 1 to 2% this in my sums makes this potentially line ball. The libs would have to be favourites… but this shows Epping is changing like Eastwood. What happens will of course depend on the nature of the contest…… who contests…. and how seriously they campaign….