Bowman – Election 2010

LIB 0.00%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Laming, since 2004.

Geography
Bowman covers the entire territory of Redland LGA, to the east of Brisbane. The seat covers Stradbroke Island and other islands at the southern end of Moreton Bay as well as suburbs such as Capalaba, Cleveland, Alexandra Hills, Birkdale, Victoria Point and Redland Bay.

Redistribution
Prior to the redistribuiton, Bowman covered all of Redland LGA and a small part of Logan LGA, covering the suburbs of Carbrook and Cornubia. These suburbs were more Liberal-voting, which has reduced the margin from 0.04% to an effective tie.

History
Bowman was created in 1949 and has been a typical marginal seat, swinging back and forth between Labor and Liberal. The seat was held by the Liberal Party for all but two terms of the 1949-1972 Coalition government. The seat was won by the ALP in 1961 before returning to the Coalition in 1963. Leonard Keogh won the seat for the ALP in 1969, and held on to the seat for the entirety of the Whitlam government. Bowman was a bellwether seat for over two decades from 1972 to 1998.

David Jull won the seat for the Liberals in 1975, and held the seat until 1983, when Keogh won the seat back after contesting it in 1977 and 1980. Jull returned to Parliament in nearby Fadden in 1984 and served briefly as a Minister in the Howard government.

Keogh was challenged for preselection in 1987 by Con Sciacca, who went on to serve as a parliamentary secretary and junior minister from 1990 to 1996, when he lost his seat to Andrea West before winning it back in 1998. Sciacca returned to the Labor frontbench and survived a close race in 2001 when Andrew Laming reduced his margin to 1.4%. In 2004, the Queensland redistribution saw some of Labor’s best parts of Bowman transferred to the new seat of Bonner, and Sciacca ran in Bonner, where he was defeated by the Liberal candidate.

Laming won Bowman in 2004 off a 6% swing, and he held the seat with a comfortable 9.1% margin. In 2007, another redistribution improved the position for the ALP slightly, and an 8.9% swing almost defeated Laming, eventually winning the seat by 64 votes.

Candidates

  • Andrew Laming (Liberal National) – Member for Bowman since 2004.
  • David Keogh (Greens)
  • Jenny Peters (Labor)
  • Dave Chidgey (One Nation)
  • Karina Windolf (Family First)
  • John Kent (Democratic Labor Party)

Political situation
Bowman is now the most marginal seat in the country and will see a fierce competition for the seat at the next federal election.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Laming LIB 42,731 46.16 -4.27
Jason Young ALP 37,565 44.11 +8.37
Brad Scott GRN 5,806 5.45 +0.67
Alan Lucas FF 3,102 2.93 -1.03
Paul Holland DEM 1,064 0.82 -0.25
Dave Chidgey ON 327 0.53 +0.53
NAT 0 0.00 -4.03

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Laming LIB 41,073 50.04 -8.86
Jason Young ALP 41,009 49.96 +8.86

Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
I divided the booths in Bowman into four areas. I grouped together those booths on Stradbroke Island and other islands in the electorate, and then divided booths on the mainland into three areas:

  • Central – Cleveland, Ormiston, Thornlands
  • North – Alexandra Hills, Birkdale, Capalaba, Thorneside, Wellington Point
  • South – Mount Cotton, Redland Bay, Victoria Point.
Polling booths in Bowman
Polling booths in Bowman
Voter group GRN % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
North 5.57 45.75 32,715 48.78
Central 5.10 56.00 15,595 23.26
South 5.04 54.50 14,868 22.17
Islands 8.32 40.62 3,882 5.79
Other votes 5.27 47.67 14,289
Polling booths in Bowman
Polling booths in Bowman
Polling booths in the northern mainland area in Bowman
Polling booths in the northern mainland area in Bowman

48 COMMENTS

  1. I think I’m correct in saying that Laming was the only one of the three Liberal MPs embroiled in that scandal over the alleged misuse of printing allowances who actually retained his seat. (?)

    Anyone explain why the bay islands go for Labor? I understand North Straddy is different, but as for the others (ie Russell, Macleay, Lamb, Coochie), I would’ve thought it would be pretty expensive real estate.

  3. Apart from the choice waterfront blocks, the blocks of land on the islands is generally relatively cheap, the result of their being generally small and poorly serviced.

  5. Yes it seems to be the case around Brisbane at the moment.
    They either can’t find a candidate or are looking to cash in on a celebrity.
    The ALP seemed to have taken their corporate socialist policy to their branches and many of the typical hard workers are being ignored.

  6. A report today that Jacqueline King, a former adviser to gaoled Qld minister Gordon Nuttall, was rumoured to be a contender for ALP preselection, but has ruled herself out. Instead support is reportedly firming behind business development manager Diana Sully.

  8. Re Jenny Peters as the likely Candidate. Jenny runs a company that manages the books of yes ! successful local companies around the Bay.
    Rock on – we will have a candidate that knows how to manage the books and has significant history in the area. No parachute required.

  10. Mr.Laming does have an impressive Resume. I can’t say I’ve seen political results to match his qualifications though. I think he is best suited to another field. It would be nice to see someone who doesn’t discriminate on wealth and status, someone who is willing to listen to the constituents and show a genuine interest in everyone be given a go. Politicians are elected on a particular platform but they are there to represent and serve everyone not just a particular group.

  11. To Ann.
    Ann what makes you think that Andrew is not listening to the concerns of the constituents? I receive surveys from him all the time, which allows me to express my concerns. I’ve also met him in the shopping centre the other day, where he was talking and listening to all those who had things to say to him. I hope your judgement has a basis; otherwise you should keep it to yourself.

  12. Everyone’s judgement is based on personal opinion and personal circumstance. Ann has as much write to say that she thinks Laming is an ineffective politician as you have to say that you think he is an effective one, Alicia.

    It’s interesting how this site is being converged on by what I assume to be party operatives who write one comment plugging whatever candidate they’re pushing and then leave. Your site is getting quite a bit of attention Ben, nice work.

  14. It’ll get lots more attention once the election is called. These pages come up very prominently in search results.

  16. The Democratic Labor Party have pre-selected John Kent of Wellington Point to contest
    the seat of Bowman.

    John is a successful young businessman who brings a wealth of business knowledge and experience to the party. John is one member who the Party hopes will be elected over the coming years and is one of the new young faces of the DLP in Queensland.

    The party is excited at prospect of John joining our team and we wish him all the best

  17. Todays announcement of the coalitions Marine Parks Policy will provide a boost to Andrew Lammings hopes of retaining Bowman.

    Voters in the state seats of Cleveland and Redlands may recall boats outside polling booths at the last state election. And the loss of those seats to the LNP.

    Expect more boats with placards at this election.

    Real science not political precautionary principle.

    .

  19. Four years of hard work and real science has resulted in a common sense approach from one of the major parties. Although our main push is toward the senate, there will be a spillover to the lower house vote.
    The aim is to prevent Looney Larissa from gaining a senate seat ( worked last election) and stop a Brown/Garrett green dreamteam.
    Over the last four years, the rec fishermen have been joined by the 4wdrivers,campers,shooters,horse riders,bike riders,grey nomads and other groups who have found their access to an area or their recreational activities curtailed by nothing more than a faith based ideology.

    Enjoy your coffee. I will be on the water with my children.

  20. Right. I’m guessing that you’re referring to Abbott planning to lift marine sanctuaries and allow greater fishing. And I’m guessing real science refers to fringe science as opposed to either mainstream climate science or perhaps mainstream marine science that warns of dangerous overfishing. I’m also guessing you’re from some crazy right-wing micro party. How did I go?

  21. Thank you Hamish.
    Straight to the “crazy right-wing micro party” box for me.

    I must be “crazy right-wing micro party” if I question pseudo science.
    I must be “crazy right-wing micro party” if I enjoy a day on the bay with my family.
    I must be “crazy right-wing micro party” if I disagree with your view of the world.

    Here are a few more for your “crazy right-wing micro party” box.
    Walter Stark.
    Ben Diggles.
    Bob Kearney.

    Enjoy your coffee. Or is that coffee flavoured milk?

    .

  23. Nicely said, Rod.
    Hamish, the fact that you knew nothing about the relevance of the coalition Marine Park Policy in the Redlands shows that you are not a local.
    I’d suggest you go elsewhere to discuss your ideas, what about taking Ann out for some
    flavoured milk? I think she would be impressed.

  24. I’ve got my prejudices and you people obviously have yours. Why bother to insult each other when the very best we can do is to get a politician?

  25. Hamish Coffee
    Posted July 28, 2010 at 1:12 PM
    Right. I’m guessing that you’re referring to Abbott planning to lift marine sanctuaries and allow greater fishing. And I’m guessing real science refers to fringe science as opposed to either mainstream climate science or perhaps mainstream marine science that warns of dangerous overfishing. I’m also guessing you’re from some crazy right-wing micro party. How did I go?

    As they say………. no father and son throwing in a hook ever fished any place out.
    Even in Thailand…. The most overfished waters on earth…… the fish have not disappeared but only reduced.

    Australia imports most of its fish from Thailand and New Zealand. Both with much more lenient fishing regulations.

    So if you are supporting the greens you are supporting the over fishing of the most poluted waters ion the planet while locking up the most underfished waters in the world.

  26. “So if you are supporting the greens you are supporting the over fishing of the most poluted waters ion the planet while locking up the most underfished waters in the world.”

    What nonsense. This is an Australian election, not a Thai one. There is a limited amount that Australian MPs can do in the international system. Clearly most Greens would support fishing quotas worldwide, but simply the Australian Government does not have that mandate. The old excuse that ‘well, it happens elsewhere anyway, so why should we be better’ is short-sighted and intellectually lazy.

    If the Thai’s fish their stock to nothing, that’s a tragedy, but in a legal and sovereign sense, that’s their problem. It is the Australian Governments responsibility to ensure that Australia has sustainable marine life and a sustainable supply of fish.

    “Australia imports most of its fish from Thailand and New Zealand.”

    Incidentally, that’s just not true. Australia imports about one third of its fish consumption (mostly from Vietnam and South Africa) and exports about one quarter of its fish catch (mostly to Japan).

  27. Incidentally, that’s just not true. Australia imports about one third of its fish consumption (mostly from Vietnam and South Africa) and exports about one quarter of its fish catch (mostly to Japan).

    Australian waters are so underfished we have actually sold licences to Thailand and others.
    Recreational fishing brings millions to the local community.
    Shutting it down doesnt achieve anything.
    Even with Thailands over fishing ……… there is still fish just smaller……

    You may want your kids to have to eat fish from the sewers of Saigon but I dont.

  28. Sustainable fishing promotes future fishing, which brings millions to the community – not to mention the tourism that diving brings to Australia (QLD especially). Overfishing denies future fishing. All imported fish is tested for health and safety. Your sewer example is not only wrong but ridiculous. You said yourself (and I don’t know whether it’s true, I’d be interested if you could provide a link), that Thai fisherman have licences to fish in Australian open waters.

  29. Tony Zegenhagen.

    Your post about fishing shows a total ignorance of basic ecological principles.

    Australian waters are OVERfished like a majority of oceans worldwide.

    Your comments are the type of misinformed garbage that show why fear reigns in much of this nation.

    A vote for the DLP….a vote for fear and xenophobia….

  30. walker
    Posted August 5, 2010 at 12:06 PM
    Tony Zegenhagen.

    Your post about fishing shows a total ignorance of basic ecological principles.

    Australian waters are OVERfished like a majority of oceans worldwide. >/i>

    NO thats is wrong. Australia has the most underfished waters in the World

    A vote for the DLP….a vote for fear and xenophobia

    That statement shows are uneducated you really are.

    The DLP fought to remove the white Australia policy and was for many years known at the party for refugees escaping the communist backed nations.
    Communism lead to the deaths of over 150 million people last centry and there are Greens Senators with direct links to well known communists from the years through 1950 to the 1970’s

    It seems our youth are once again being conned. This time by the watermelons.

  32. I hope you can do better than that Tony. I hope you can put forward an argument based on today’s policy rather than making debateable claims about 40 years ago.

    It’s your kind of baseless motherhood statements (“It seems our youth are once again being conned. This time by the watermelons”) that make political debate in this country so pathetic.

  33. The first link didn’t work and the second link is beside the point. Singer is a philosopher and ethics professor. He has worked very hard for animal and human welfare and was posing a question about the line drawn on animal ethics.

    In any case he is not a Green MP or candidate or advisor. Your slander is getting more lazy every day. I hope these aren’t the kind of arguments you’d bring to parliament.

  34. I’ll argue any policy today.

    Its when posters like Walker that have no knowledge of what they are talking about post rubbish like xenophobia about the DLP then what does he expect.

  35. Hello Hamish.

    Any chance of some science in the Marine Park debate or should I just watch “Happy Feet” again.

    Australian waters are the most under resourced and over regulated in the world.
    70% of the worlds Marine parks and sanctuary’s are in Australian waters.

    Minisir Garrett had a closed door meeting with 2 overseas environment groups (Pew foundation and WWF) before deciding on the Coral Sea moratorium. No consultation with stakeholders who were affected by this decision.

    The state government closure of 16% of the Moreton bay Marine Park resulted in a ban in 53% of the fishing areas. Or are you of the belief that throwing a line in any puddle will result in fish.
    The commercial license buyback reduced the commercial effort buy a whopping 1.83%. The EPA was offered the 6 licenses that make up 87% of the commercial effort in Moreton Bay but the response” The greens and media would have a field day if we told them we had spent half the allowance on 6 liceneses”.

    The planned closures for the East Coast Bio region are based on finding where the fishermen fish, then closing it.
    Your 30% closures will result in a 70% to 80% closure of fishing areas.

    But you knew that.

    Talk to you in a week.
    I’m off to Straddie to murder some sea kitties.

    Enjoy your milk.

    .

  36. QUOTE “Its when posters like Walker that have no knowledge of what they are talking about post rubbish like xenophobia about the DLP then what does he expect”

    Tony,

    An intellectual such as yourself would realise that the term xenophobia has connontations beyond a “fear of foreigners”.
    Xenophobia can also be directed simply to anyone outside of a culture, not necessarily one particular race or people. It is essentially a fear of people different from oneself.

    The DLP’s socially conservative stance against homosexuals, drug users, pro-abortionists, reeks of xenophobia to me.
    The DLP is alot different from the party it once was. Its a party for people fearful of individuals who are essentially not white, christian, married. Its a party that is afraid of difference. Its contradictory to pull in asylum seekers with one hand and push away homosexuals with the other.

    This nation is for everyone.

    Good luck fighting for the scraps of the evangelical far right vote.

  39. Rod,

    “Australian waters are the most under resourced and over regulated in the world.”

    Yet so many fish species are considered overfished?

    “70% of the worlds Marine parks and sanctuary’s are in Australian waters.”

    I doubt it, but do post a link.

    “Minisir Garrett had a closed door meeting with 2 overseas environment groups (Pew foundation and WWF) before deciding on the Coral Sea moratorium. No consultation with stakeholders who were affected by this decision.”

    Again, I doubt it, but please do post a link.

    “The planned closures for the East Coast Bio region are based on finding where the fishermen fish, then closing it.”

    Or finding where populations of overfished fish live?

    I think its important, for the sake of credibility, that Rod and/or Tony say whether they think some Australian fish stocks suffer from overfishing or not. If not then they’re just ignoring basic facts (like climate change, but we’ll leave that for another day).

    “Enjoy your milk.”

    What does that even mean? Is there some kind of sparkling wit I’ve missed here.

    IN, sorry, it is, but I just can’t let some of this garbage go unchallenged.

  40. Imaginative Nickname,

    I dont apologise for my views on the DLP, but i do apologise for my part in steering away from the specific psephological nature of discussion on this website.

  41. Purely in the interests of factual accuracy, Peter Singer was never the lead Senate candidate for anyone. He was, however, the Greens candidate for the 1994 Kooyong by-election.

  42. He was actually, in 1996.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Greens_Victoria

    I am completely prepared to defend Singer. His speeches or papers are regularly taken out of context by his opponents – usually those in commercial food production or religious right-to-lifers – but his work on animal rights, human rights and the very nature of ethics is very interesting and he is a leading mind on the study of ethics.

    If I may plug briefly, I would recommend his latest book, The Life You Can Save, to anyone. It challenges common assumptions of foreign aid and poses some very interesting, very research-based (as opposed to heart-string based) questions about the idea of global responsibility.

    Cheers, H

  44. ALP private polling points to a total rout in Bowman. 15 point shift in primary vote and 8 point shift in 2PP. Bowman will revert to being a safe Liberal seat on the 21st. Laming is home and hosed.

  47. Digger – that’s what I am also hearing, although the last few days wouldn’t have helped Abbott. It’s also starting to get fairly wide spread up there in other seats too. I don’t think Rudd is adding anything at all. There is talk of him campaigning in Moreton and Blair, which gives you an idea where the ALP headspace is in QLD. We will just have to wait and see I suppose.

Comments are closed.