Cause of by-election
Sitting Labor MP Peta Murphy died on 4 December 2023.
Margin – ALP 6.3%
Geography
South-Eastern Melbourne. Dunkley covers all of the City of Frankston and part of the Shire of Mornington Peninsula. Main suburbs include Frankston, Sandhurst, Skye, Carrum Downs, Langwarrin and Seaford.
History
Dunkley was created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has almost always been a marginal electorate, and swung back and forth regularly in the 1980s. The Liberal Party held the seat continuously from 1996 to 2019, if only by slim margins at time.
The seat was first won in 1984 by Labor’s Bob Chynoweth. Chynoweth had won Flinders at the 1983 election, defeating new MP Peter Reith, who had won a by-election for the seat four months earlier. Chynoweth moved to Dunkley following the redistribution.
He held the seat in 1987 before losing to Liberal candidate Frank Ford in 1990. Chynoweth won the seat back in 1993.
A redistribution before the 1996 election saw Dunkley become a notional Liberal seat, and Chynoweth was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Billson. Billson held Dunkley for twenty years until his retirement in 2016, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Chris Crewther.
The electoral boundaries were redrawn prior to the 2019 election, and the seat became a notional Labor seat. Crewther lost his bid for re-election to Labor candidate Peta Murphy. Murphy was re-elected with a greater margin in 2022, but died of cancer in December 2023.
- Nathan Conroy (Liberal)
- Bronwyn Currie (Animal Justice)
- Chrysten Abraham (Libertarian)
- Reem Yunis (Victorian Socialists)
- Darren Bergwerf (Independent)
- Alex Breskin (Greens)
- Heath McKenzie (Democrats)
- Jodie Belyea (Labor)
Assessment
Dunkley is not a safe seat and could be in play. It seems likely that Labor will retain the seat, both because of their strong position in Victoria and potentially because of sympathy due to the circumstances leading to the by-election, but a Liberal win cannot be ruled out.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peta Murphy | Labor | 38,506 | 40.2 | +1.7 |
| Sharn Coombes | Liberal | 31,108 | 32.5 | -7.4 |
| Liam O’Brien | Greens | 9,898 | 10.3 | +2.0 |
| Adrian Kain Irvine | United Australia | 4,846 | 5.1 | +2.5 |
| Darren Bergwerf | Independent | 3,698 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Scott Middlebrook | One Nation | 2,689 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Damian Willis | Liberal Democrats | 2,398 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Elizabeth Johnston | Animal Justice | 2,013 | 2.1 | -1.0 |
| Kathryn Woods | Federation Party | 566 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 4,750 | 4.7 | -0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peta Murphy | Labor | 53,865 | 56.3 | +3.5 |
| Sharn Coombes | Liberal | 41,857 | 43.7 | -3.5 |
Polling places in Dunkley have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 57.6% in the centre and 60.6% in the north. The Liberal Party polled 52.8% in the south.
About one third of votes were cast as pre-poll votes, with another 22% cast through other methods. Labor won a smaller majority in these vote categories.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.9% in the south to 17.3% in the north-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 11.8 | 57.6 | 21,495 | 22.5 |
| North | 11.0 | 60.6 | 14,789 | 15.4 |
| South | 11.5 | 47.2 | 5,299 | 5.5 |
| Pre-poll | 9.5 | 55.8 | 32,944 | 34.4 |
| Other votes | 9.4 | 54.9 | 21,195 | 22.1 |
Election results in Dunkley at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Nathan Conroy is again the candidate for Dunkley at the upcoming election.
In theory a possible lib win
But in practice with the redistribution and being in
Victoria will be alp retain
@mick if they win here they are probly in govt. id give conroy a 50/50 shot as im about the same on the liberals chance atm
Youd think Conroy would be a chance here given labor can no longer count on the sympathy vote for Labor and the people who stuck with them because of Murphy.
@Mick labor are going backwards in Vic so I wouldn’t count that as a factor.
Nathan Conroy came across as a poor candidate, in my opinion.
A comment he made in his concessio speech, about his wife [who was standing next to him] being pregnant, and wondering out loud where he got the time, was in extremely poor taste and should disqualify him from aother run.
This will likely be a liberal seat again by 2028.
@raue when can we expect an updated election guide for the 3 redistributed states?
I think conroy will give Belyea a good run again this time around. Without the sympathy vote and the people voting Labor out of respect for Murphy has Belyea done enough to put those voters in her column.
I am working hard on the guide now. There’s 100 seats to write, that’s a lot. Will be up in December.
By the way, I am giving updates on the guide in the Discord for donors.
Good luck Ben! Wishing you all the best!
@raue cheers no rush just checking the progress. thanks
I think with an avg of 3% swing expected in Vic this could be line ball and the possibly flip. Labor will be without Pets Murphy’s personal and sympathy vote and being a working class division centred on Frankston that has Nathan Conroy as the mayor. Also Belyea probably hasn’t done anything substantial to give her a major boost. I think this will be close.
@Darth Vader for the Liberals to win this they need to win or at least do well in some or perhaps even most of the Frankston booths. It could also depend on the redistribution since the southeastern corner of the seat is very Liberal-voting and could be pushed into Flinders.
@The by el3ction pushed the margin down by about 3.6% and the redistribution only increased the labor margin by about 0.5%. Conroy should be able to get 2-3% at least extra now that the sympathy vote and peta Murphy’s personal vote should waver. I think it should be close enough for Conroy to get over the line. CoL will be a central issue here.