Cause of by-election
Sitting Liberal MP Vickie Chapman resigned in May 2022 following the Liberal government’s defeat at the March 2022 state election.
Margin – LNP 8.2%
Geography
Eastern Adelaide. Bragg covers suburbs of Adelaide, stretching from those immediately to the south-east of the Adelaide city centre, out to the foot of the Adelaide Hills. Most of the electorate’s population lies in the City of Burnside, with a minority in the Adelaide Hills and a small area in Mitcham council and Norwood Payneham and St Peters council.
History
The electorate of Bragg has existed since 1970, and has always been held by the Liberal Party.
The seat was first won in 1970 by David Tonkin. He was elected Liberal leader in 1975, and after losing the 1977 election, he led the Liberal Party into government in 1979. He served as Premier for one term, losing in 1982. He resigned from Parliament in 1983.
Graham Ingerson was elected to Bragg at the 1983 Bragg by-election. He served in the ministry from 1993, and as Deputy Premier from 1996, until he resigned from both roles in 1998. Ingerson retired at the 2002 election.
Vickie Chapman was elected in Bragg at the 2002 election, and was re-elected five times. She served as Liberal Party deputy leader from 2006 to 2009, and again from February 2013 until 2022. Chapman served as deputy premier in the Liberal government from 2018 to 2022, and resigned from parliament shortly after the government’s defeat in 2022.
Candidates
- Neil Aitchison (Independent)
- Alice Rolls (Labor)
- Jack Batty (Liberal)
- Jim Bastiras (Greens)
- Daryl McCann (Family First)
- James Hols (Liberal Democrats)
Assessment
Bragg will probably stay in Liberal hands.
2022 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Vickie Chapman | Liberal | 12,751 | 53.8 | -7.6 |
| Rick Sarre | Labor | 6,793 | 28.6 | +5.7 |
| Michael Petrilli | Greens | 3,000 | 12.6 | +4.1 |
| Daryl McCann | Family First | 1,175 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Informal | 438 | 1.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Vickie Chapman | Liberal | 13,796 | 58.2 | -8.8 |
| Rick Sarre | Labor | 9,923 | 41.8 | +8.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bragg have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.4% in the south to 58.7% in the centre.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 11.9% in the north to 13.4% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 13.1 | 58.7 | 7,230 | 30.5 |
| South | 13.4 | 53.4 | 4,654 | 19.6 |
| North | 11.9 | 58.4 | 2,695 | 11.4 |
| Other votes | 12.1 | 60.1 | 9,140 | 38.5 |
Election results in Bragg at the 2022 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Unless the Liberals screw up badly in the campaign, Liberal hold – this was comfortably held in 1985 and 2006.
“Bragg will probably stay in Liberal hands” isn’t a fair assessment when a teal-independent is almost certain to run here in Chelsey Potter.
While I believe I merit there are allot of people particularly progressive and moderate women voters and groups who will argue this is bloke-centric and learnt “nothing” from the federal poll.
Can anyone estimate the liberal vote here in the federal election
Daniel, Chelsea Potter has long since abandoned her independent bid and gone back to the Liberal party.
As for the woman factor – people aren’t interested exclusively in the sex of candidates and aren’t going to turn on the Liberals for selecting a man. That’s how political apparatchiks operate, not voters. That doesn’t mean Jack Batty can’t have negative candidate perceptions, like being a political insider, but people care about the person they elect and not their sex.
I don’t imagine Vicky Chapman had much of a personal vote considering the negative coverage she had pre-election and yet this was still a safe Liberal retain. So it is quite fair to say that in the absence of a prominent independent, this will likely remain a Liberal seat.
Vickie* wish I could edit that.
@Mr. Quinlivan
Had a brief look on the AEC’s website, the Liberals won Bragg around the same, maybe 1% better for Labor, but still much of the Liberal margin in Sturt federally (like it often is)
Some comments about this by-election were posted on the Bragg page in the 2022 SA election guide.
Not a particularly good result for the Libs with such a large swing against them in a by-election where they are the opposition, though the Libs look certain to retain.
I think this is similar to the Griffith by election 2014
The Libs look set to hang on. No surprise if they do.
It’s not a good look for the Libs as they suffered an 8.8% swing at the state election and then another significant swing just 3.5 months later at the byelection.
If a teal ran, it would be very likely they could win this given how close the TPP with Labor is and the fact that this affluent inner city electorate will have many voters who would never vote Labor but be happy to vote for a socially progressive but economically conservative teal. Jo Dyer, who contested Boothby, or Chelsea Potter who almost ran as a teal here could’ve feasibly beat the Libs.
Labor target in 2026 if they are looking at a landslide Dean Brown scale, which cannot be ruled out if the premier becomes another Mark McGowan which could happen if there is another national crisis like a war or another pandemic.
Teal target if the Liberals don’t stick to their message of going more moderate and appealing more to women.
Incumbency rarely helps anymore. This by-election swing is clearly a honeymoon period for the state Labor government.
Voters don’t like being pushed to the polls if they don’t really need to. This is the third trip to the polls for voters in Bragg this year after all. They tend to punish the party that sent them there. Vicky Chapman should have hung around until November or December to create some air space.
Agree redistributed, by elections held very early in a new government’s term generally have swings against the incumbent party, especially if it is a senior opposition member retiring/quitting just after an election loss. Similar examples include South Brisbane 2012 (QLD state by election held just after the LNP’s landslide win under Campbell Newman) and also Griffith 2014 (Federal by election held shortly after Tony Abbott’s win)