Cause of by-election
Sitting Liberal MP David Speirs resigned on October 5 2024 after his house was raided by police in relation to a video showing illicit drug use.
Margin – LIB 2.7%
Incumbent MP
David Speirs, since 2018. Previously member for Bright, 2014-2018.
Geography
Southern Adelaide. The seat covers Hallett Cove, Sheidow Park, Trott Park, Seaview Downs, Seacliff and South Brighton.
History
Black was created as a new seat in 2018, primarily replacing Mitchell while taking in southern parts of Bright.
Mitchell had alternated between Labor and Liberal, most recently won by Liberal MP Corey Wingard in 2014.
Bright was Labor-held from 2006 until 2014, when Liberal candidate David Speirs won.
Speirs moved to Black in 2018. He became Environment Minister in the Liberal government and served in that role until the government’s defeat in 2022. Speirs was personally re-elected, and became the Liberal party’s new leader in opposition. He stepped down as leader in August 2024 and quit parliament in October 2024.
Assessment
The circumstances of Speirs’ resignation will make it hard for the Liberal Party to retain this marginal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Speirs | Liberal | 11,862 | 50.1 | -0.9 |
| Alex Dighton | Labor | 9,037 | 38.1 | +7.0 |
| Liz Tidemann | Greens | 2,785 | 11.8 | +5.2 |
| Informal | 643 | 2.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Speirs | Liberal | 12,493 | 52.7 | -6.5 |
| Alex Dighton | Labor | 11,191 | 47.3 | +6.5 |
Booths in Black have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.1% in the north to 53.1% in the south-west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.2% in the south-east to 14.3% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 14.3 | 52.1 | 11,892 | 25.1 |
| South-West | 10.6 | 53.1 | 10,354 | 21.9 |
| South-East | 10.2 | 52.5 | 8,692 | 18.3 |
| Other votes | 11.5 | 53.2 | 16,430 | 34.7 |
Election results in Black at the 2022 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Ben,
In the table where you break down voter group by region, should the column labelled ‘ALP 2PP %’ be ‘LIB 2PP %’?
I’m not sure that primarily replacing Mitchell is quite how I see it. primarily replacing Bright is how the maps look to me. Hallett Cove, Marino, ,Seacliff and South Brighton were all in Bright and are in Black. Hallett Cove has 3 polling booths and is the biggest of all the suburbs were most of the population is.
Just a bit of context, there was a leaked video of David Speirs sniffing cocaine from a plate which he claimed was a deepfake. This was just after he resigned as leader and was replaced by Vincent Tarzia.
Despite the circumstances of his resignation, I think the Liberals should hold on here in contrast to their loss to Labor in Dunstan. Unlike moderate Steven Marshall I don’t think right-wing David Speirs really had a personal vote. Some MPs just don’t.
This will be the first big test for the new Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia. Could he, a moderate, help the SA branch get back on its feet?
After their victory in Dunstan, SA Labor will definitely have a shot trying to win the seat of Black. However, Black is more difficult for Labor to win than Dunstan, since Black has a larger Liberal margin than Dunstan and the outgoing MP for Black David Speirs has much less personal vote than the former member for Dunstan, the respected ex-Premier Steven Marshall. If SA Liberals retain the seat it will deliver a huge boost to Vincent Tarzia’s leadership. However, failure to retain the seat would be nothing short of catastrophic. The Opposition losing one seat to the Government in a by-election is bad enough, imagine what would happen if they lose two.
NP, Tarzia isn’t a moderate, why are you trying to make an old rusted car look brand new? Not how it works mate.
Tarzia is one of the worst of the SA Liberals, they have learnt nothing since their defeat. At least Speirs was honest and wasn’t playing political games just to get elected. Tarzia knifed Speirs in a bloodless coup (Speirs even said an MP was plotting/undermining his leadership) and it is obvious it was Tarzia.
I simply do not understand why some people support a party no matter who leads it, If anyone puts country first, they will support the best person to lead. not some faceless man who toppled and effectively destroyed Speirs political career. Speirs will be missed.
Malinaskas could win a landslide in 2026, I seriously think it will be opposite 1993 at this stage and Tarzia will even lose his own seat and the only seats left for the Libs will be the rural seats and a few city ones like Bragg.
Libs should have put Gardner as leader, or a woman leader since SA remains (to date) the only state that has not had a female premier.
I would put every cent on Sportsbet on a Labor landslide in SA. The Libs need to get rid of Tarzia to save themselves, He is worse than Zak Kirkup. (although I actually did like Zak Kirkup)