Council margin – LNP 9.9% vs GRN
Mayoral margin – LNP 17.3%
Incumbent councillor
Greg Adermann, since 2020.
Geography
North-western Brisbane. Pullenvale covers a large part of the Brisbane City Council area with little to no population, but most of its population lies in suburbs on north side of the Brisbane River to the west of the city centre, including Kenmore, Bellbowrie and Moggill.
History
Pullenvale has been a safe Liberal ward for a long time.
Margaret de Wit held this ward from 1997 to 2016. De Wit won with a 17.4% margin in 2000, 29% in 2004, 30.6% in 2008 and 31.2% in 2012 (the last time against the Greens).
de Wit rose to the position of chairman of the council, which she held until she announced her council retirement in 2015.
The LNP’s Kate Richards won Pullenvale in 2016, with an 18% margin. She suffered a 13% swing after preferences, but ultimately held on with one of the safest margins in the city.
Richards was disendorsed prior to the 2020 election, with the LNP instead nominating Greg Adermann. Richards ran for the ward as an independent, but Adermann was comfortably elected.
Assessment
Pullenvale is a safe Liberal ward. The presence of a disendorsed incumbent in 2020 would have complicated the race, so it seems likely the now-incumbent LNP councillor should increase his margin in 2024.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Greg Adermann | Liberal National | 10,686 | 41.7 | -18.8 |
| Charles Druckmann | Greens | 6,252 | 24.4 | +2.8 |
| Kate Richards | Independent | 5,060 | 19.7 | +19.7 |
| Jordan Mark | Labor | 3,643 | 14.2 | -3.8 |
| Informal | 618 | 2.4 |
2020 council two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Greg Adermann | Liberal National | 12,086 | 59.9 | -8.2 |
| Charles Druckmann | Greens | 8,080 | 40.1 | +8.2 |
| Exhausted | 5,475 | 21.4 |
2020 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 12,312 | 55.3 | -8.0 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 4,519 | 20.3 | +0.8 |
| Kath Angus | Greens | 4,213 | 18.9 | +5.3 |
| Karagh-Mae Kelly | Animal Justice | 584 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Jeff Hodges | Motorists Party | 256 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Frank Jordan | Independent | 130 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| John Dobinson | Independent | 95 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 85 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Ben Gorringe | Independent | 64 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Informal | 541 | 2.4 |
2020 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 12,855 | 67.3 | -3.7 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 6,240 | 32.7 | +3.7 |
| Exhausted | 3,163 | 14.2 |
Booths in Pullenvale have been divided into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.
The Liberal National Party narrowly won the two-candidate-preferred vote in every area, ranging from 54.4% in the east to 63.4% in the north-west.
| Voter group | ALP prim council | IND prim council | LNP 2CP council | LNP 2PP mayoral | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 13.6 | 15.9 | 54.4 | 64.4 | 2,875 | 11.2 |
| South-West | 16.9 | 20.3 | 55.6 | 66.1 | 2,340 | 9.1 |
| North-West | 9.5 | 26.0 | 63.4 | 76.7 | 1,032 | 4.0 |
| Pre-poll | 15.7 | 20.7 | 61.1 | 66.0 | 8,093 | 31.6 |
| Postal | 13.3 | 20.9 | 61.3 | 69.7 | 7,036 | 27.4 |
| Other votes | 13.0 | 16.8 | 60.9 | 54.6 | 4,265 | 16.6 |
Council election results in Pullenvale at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal National Party vs Greens) and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, the Greens, independent candidate Kate Richards and Labor.
Mayoral election results in Pullenvale at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
The big questions in this ward are what happens to the almost 20% of the vote that went to Richards last time, and what will the impact of the Greens breakthrough in the federal seat be?
Does Richards vote automatically flow back to the LNP with the new incumbent, or has some of it been lost for good?
There will very likely be a primary swing to the Greens but the LNP will still win this ward. The Greens don’t win this ward even on the federal election results, despite winning Ryan.
Yeah I don’t think the Greens will win. I think it’s possible they might get a big primary swing and not really move the 2PP needle much at all, if say they split Richards vote 50:50 with the LNP.
A spanner thrown into the works here – Kate Richards is running again, which at minimum should prevent the LNP winning a majority of the primary vote. I still expect an LNP retain overall though.
Labor is dead out here. Kate is running again and splitting blue voters. Greens keep pushing. I think there is less of a risk of leakage in preferences for a possible Greens claim.
There is a small chance of something interesting happening here, with Richards running again but preferencing the Greens this time. I don’t know how well she’ll do now that she isn’t the incumbent, but if she gets ~20% of the vote again and there’s a significantly improved preference flow from her to the Greens, it might be surprisingly competitive.