Morningside – Brisbane 2024

Despite this ward being held on a high margin, I’m quite uncertain about what the result will be. Much like some WA seats at the 2022 federal election, the previous election results aren’t necessarily a good guide as to what might happen, because they don’t capture a trend that has emerged since then. In WAs case it was state Labor’s stratospheric level of popularity, here it’s the huge swing towards the Greens seen in 2022.

Queensland is often known for voting differently at different levels of government (just see the overlap between LNP-held council seats and Labor-held state seats), but this area seems to be an exception, having consistently voted for Labor for decades, apart from the landslide 2012 state election. So seeing as the Greens achieved double digit primary vote swings towards them in practically every 2022 Griffith booth located within Morningside ward, will that be reflected in the council election?

It’s hard to say how much will translate over seeing as the issues in the election are very different. If there’s a good level of translation, that would be worrying for Labor, seeing as they finished third on the primary vote in Norman Park, Seven Hills and Camp Hill, and several percentage points behind the Greens in Morningside. On the other hand, the Bulimba area was one of the least favourable parts of Griffith for the Greens, even though they won the 2CP there and beat Labor on primary in 2 of 3 booths.

You’d have to still see Labor as the favourites to retain here given the sheer size of the swing the Greens would need to make the 2CP. But given the recent history, it’s certainly not out of the question for that to happen.

I agree Labor are still the favourite, and Lucy Collier is a pretty strong candidate, but want to point out just how dead the Greens ran here in 2020 in comparison to the rest of the inner city. Kuelsen was very much a placeholder candidate. I saw very few corflutes, he had no social media or even traditional media presence that I could find, and just did not seem like the kind of person to unseat hip, youthful, progressive Kara Cook.
New candidate Linda Barry isn’t super putting herself out there, but in comparison to Kulesen is doing great. Antony Green points out the difference in Cook’s vote and Condren’s shows she had a significant personal vote that Collier hasn’t had time to build. So I’m thinking this is gonna be much closer than to 2020nl numbers suggest.

Sorry big typo at the end there. *Than the 2020 numbers suggest.

Yeah i am surprised that Labor remains so strong in this ward. I would think from a purely demographic perspective it would be Greens versus LNP. It seems to be one of the few remaining affluent Labor held wards.

Kara Cook seems to have been a very strong incumbent whose personal vote has masked what would’ve otherwise been a stronger L/NP and Green vote. With the loss of her personal vote, I think this will become a three way marginal seat with Labor favored, as it will be very difficult for the Greens to top Labor’s very high starting vote and the fact Labor has an incumbent. In a good year for the L/NP, they’d probably have a very good chance of picking this up but I can only see their vote falling council-wide, and any localized correction swing back to the L/NP here won’t be enough to overcome the ward’s margin and council-wide headwinds.

Bases on the letterbox drop we got last week, I don’t think the LNP are really trying in this ward. Had a couple of typos and their list of achievements included things like doing the bare minimum to maintain major roads. Ended with a fairly unhinged dig at the Greens which is particularly bizarre when the incumbent is from Labor.

They *might* put some effort into Deagon but other than that, I really doubt the LNP will ‘try’ in any ward they don’t already hold. Judging from recent election results they’d be lucky to get much more than a mid 30s PV in Morningside anyway.

The dig at the Greens is just part of their broader Brisbane-wide message that they’re taking into the campaign. And the Greens probably most likely are their main contenders in the election in most wards. Seemingly they didn’t do too much adapt this messaging for Morningside like you mention, but it probably isn’t in their interest to invest much of their political campaigning in Morningside when their energy would be spent sandbagging vulnerable seats.

Maybe it is amiss. If there is a big surge in Green support which takes Labor primary support down to under ~33%, preference exhaustion might hurt Labor and the Greens enough to boost the LNP TCP% into a competitive range. Similar to what happened in the Central ward at the last BCC election.

The precedence here for a surge in Greens votes was exemplified in the Federal Election results for Griffith. The surge relegated Labor incumbent Terri Butler into third position on primary votes behind the LNP. The two-candidate preferred count ended up being between Greens and LNP in Griffith. The riverside suburbs in Morningside like Bulimba has increased in affluence in recent years making this particular pocket of Griffith more favourable to the LNP and the Greens. This particular pocket of Griffith had some of the best 2CP booth results for the Coalition.

I also wonder if there might be a deliberate aspect to the LNP selling the notion that the Greens are the biggest viable contenders in Labor held ward contests like this. This might take away some genuine interest in Labor from left-leaning constituents of Labor held divisions and direct more of their votes towards the Greens. Having the vote split either way quite considerably in an optional preference environment gives the LNP a greater benefit than they would otherwise in a State or Federal contest.

I think Labor’s primary vote will take a hit but they’ll still retain and the LNP will still make second place. It’s hard to know if the LNP will make any gain on primary vote given it’s been supressed for so long due to the strong personal vote of Kara Cook but I still reckon it’ll go a bit backwards.

I did some analysis on this attack ad that the LNP is running https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR17030191326081056769/creative/CR13590231003716124673?region=20037&topic=political

And I found that they are not running this attack ad in many wards you might expect they are:
McDowall
The Gap
Pullenvale
Jamboree
Tennyson
The Gabba
Moorooka
Runcorn
Macgregor

And there is one ward that you might not expect… Morningside!

I think the LNP are done here. They don’t view this as worth spending money on.

I agree. I’ve seen very few LNP yard signs too. I think one of them actually had the wrong candidate XD. My prediction is easy Labor retain, but Greens make the 2CP. Collier had done a good job campaigning, the Greens candidate has been far less visible than their people in LNP seats. I speculate this is deliberate – trying to play nice with Labor in the event they have to cooperate in council.

@Nimalan Morningside is the equivalent of Walter Taylor on the Southside.
Lots of government workers, lots of ABC listeners (and watchers) and a fairly high median income with very low unemployment rates.

But… the sleeper issue across the ward is crime, particularly youth crime. Property theft, break and enter, car theft – if you’re missing your Audi then you probably live the Morningside ward. And these people are literate, telegenic activists. Ben Cannon, who started Voice for Victims after his neighbours house was broken into and the family assaulted, is a real estate agent in Bulimba.

So Morningside may well be an indicator of how hard crime will bite in the State election.

@ Mark Yore
Thanks for the insights appreciate it. I have always been puzzled why Morningside/state of Bulimba is so strong for Labor. Hawthorne and Bulimba are in the Top 10 most expensive suburbs in Brisbane and even in 2012 the LNP barely won it. Longer term as SEQ continues to grow rapidly in population and Riverside Real estate along the Riverfront becomes more scarce, i would believe this would be only affordable those in the Corporate sector/Business owners.

It’s not just Hawthorne and Bulimba. There are plenty of cheaper apartment/townhouse complexes in the southern half of the electorate.

@Mark Yore, I agree that crime will be an interesting one in this ward, and perhaps to a lesser extent in the Coorparoo ward as well.

But the LNP isn’t running its “Greens will increase crime rate” ads in the ward either. So I think it’s a bit unclear where the voters who will vote with crime on their mind will go.