Council margin – LNP 13.5%
Mayoral margin – LNP 11.5%
Incumbent councillor
Tracy Davis, since 2019.
Geography
Northern Brisbane. McDowall covers the suburbs of Bridgeman Downs, Everton Park and McDowall, and parts of Aspley, Chermside West and Stafford.
History
McDowall was won in 2000 by Labor candidate Rita Collins by a slim 1.1% margin.
In 2004, Collins lost to Liberal candidate Norm Wyndham by a 4.1% margin.
Wyndham was re-elected in 2008 with a 12.6% margin and again in 2012 with a 23.4% margin. Wyndham’s margin was cut to 15.2% in 2016, and he retired in 2019 to be succeeded by LNP councillor Tracy Davis.
Davis previously served as the state MP for Aspley from 2009 to 2017, when she lost her seat. She served on the LNP frontbench from 2010 until 2017, including as a minister during the Newman government.
Davis was elected to a full term in McDowall in 2020.
- Tracy Davis (Liberal National)
- Joshua Sanderson (Greens)
- David Dallaston (Independent)
- Mark Wolhuter (Labor)
Assessment
McDowall is a safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tracy Davis | Liberal National | 14,693 | 59.2 | -1.8 |
| Liam Culverhouse | Labor | 7,380 | 29.7 | +0.1 |
| Joshua Sanderson | Greens | 2,754 | 11.1 | +1.7 |
| Informal | 580 | 2.3 |
2020 council two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tracy Davis | Liberal National | 15,006 | 63.5 | -1.7 |
| Liam Culverhouse | Labor | 8,611 | 36.5 | +1.7 |
| Exhausted | 1,210 | 4.9 |
2020 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 10,901 | 54.2 | -6.4 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 6,027 | 30.0 | +0.1 |
| Kath Angus | Greens | 2,055 | 10.2 | +4.4 |
| Karagh-Mae Kelly | Animal Justice | 600 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Jeff Hodges | Motorists Party | 209 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Frank Jordan | Independent | 98 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| John Dobinson | Independent | 72 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Ben Gorringe | Independent | 69 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 67 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| Informal | 518 | 2.5 |
2020 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 11,263 | 61.5 | -7.1 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 7,060 | 38.5 | +7.1 |
| Exhausted | 5,090 | 21.7 |
Booths in McDowall have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal National Party won the two-party-preferred vote in the south-west (59.&%) and the north (63.1%), while Labor won 51.7% in the south-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim council | LNP 2PP council | LNP 2PP mayoral | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 13.2 | 59.7 | 58.9 | 2,280 | 9.2 |
| North | 10.4 | 63.1 | 62.1 | 2,065 | 8.3 |
| South-East | 15.0 | 48.3 | 50.0 | 1,222 | 4.9 |
| Other votes | 11.5 | 64.8 | 57.1 | 6,863 | 27.6 |
| Postal | 11.2 | 68.3 | 66.3 | 6,791 | 27.4 |
| Pre-poll | 9.0 | 61.2 | 59.4 | 5,606 | 22.6 |
Council election results in McDowall at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Mayoral election results in McDowall at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Please add the link to the independent candidate’s website
Interesting to see an independent running in this very-safe LNP Ward. The candidate, David Dallaston, seems to be a relation of Labor’s 2015 Candidate for the overlapping State Seat of Aspley, Gayle Dallaston, but his social media posts suggest he is very much not a supporter of Labor’s Lord Mayoral Candidate in this Election.
Outcome is going to be a LNP hold; only strong teal or independent candidate could feasibly push the 3,200 or so votes away from the LNP to remove it from the LNP tent if they were prepared to campaign long and hard on Council issues like development. The only noteworthy factor about this otherwise predictibly safe seat is the intensity of the anti-development sentiment in this part of the city is VERY obvious; there was a Change.Org petition with something like 10000+ votes specifically against a development plan for a petrol station and townhouse in Bridgeman Downs in the past few years. The Labor Candidate in 2016 and 2020 campaigned hard on a purportedly low amount of funding the Ward receives relative to others, the inference seeming to be that McDowall Ward is not a big priority for the incumbent LNP administration considering its historically very-safe-LNP status. However the opening of a new $20 million Library two weeks before polling day suggests McDowall isn’t being left entirely out in the cold by the LNP administration.
The LNP Stronghold suburbs of Aspley, Bridgeman Downs and McDowall aren’t likely to go Labor anytime soon, and the overlapping state seat of Aspley is in something like the top 5 seats in terms of age demographics, so it’s hardly likely to be a surprise Green gain in the short to medium term. Despite the anti-development sentiment, suburbs like Bridgeman Downs vote solidly LNP, and so it’s likely to stay that way without a high-profile local independent/teal making inroads well before the 2028 election.