Council margin – LNP 5.8% vs GRN
Mayoral margin – LNP 8.7%
Incumbent councillor
Peter Matic, since 2016. Previously councillor for Toowong ward 2007-2016.
Geography
Inner west of Brisbane. Paddington covers the suburbs of Kelvin Grove, Auchenflower, Milton and Paddington immediately to the west of the Brisbane CBD.
Redistribution
Paddington expanded to the north-east and north-west and lost its southern edge. Paddington lost the remainder of Toowong to Walter Taylor ward, gained Bardon from the Gap and gained Herston from Central. These changes made only a slight change to the margin.
History
Paddington ward was created in 2016 as a successor to Toowong ward.
The Toowong ward was created in 1994 as a merger of Liberal-held Taringa ward and Labor-held Paddington ward, and was won in 1994 by new Liberal councillor Judy Magub.
Magub was re-elected in 1997, 2000 and 2004, and retired in 2007. In the lead-up to the 2008 election, the Liberal margin in Toowong was cut from 12.7% to 1.8%.
Liberal councillor Peter Matic was appointed to the casual vacancy, and was re-elected in 2008 with a 10% swing.
In 2012, Matic was elected to a second full term with a slim 0.3% swing. He currently serves as Chairman of the Public and Active Transport Committee.
Matic was re-elected to represent the renamed Paddington ward in 2016 with a margin of 6% against the Greens.
Candidates
- Donna Burns (Greens)
- Jeff Eelkema (Labor)
- Peter Matic (Liberal National)
Assessment
Paddington is a marginal ward where Labor and the Greens polled a majority of the primary vote in 2016. Matic could be vulnerable if there is a shift against the LNP across the city, with the Greens probably in a better position to benefit from that swing. This is the Greens best prospect for winning a second ward.
The Greens or Labor could also improve their chances if exhaustion rates dropped. Only 7.4% of Labor voters preferenced the LNP, but almost 39% of Labor voters chose not to mark further preferences.
2016 council result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Matic | Liberal National | 11,326 | 48.9 | -5.0 | 48.6 |
| Michael Kane | Greens | 6,328 | 27.3 | +6.3 | 27.0 |
| Jeff Eelkema | Labor | 5,510 | 23.8 | -1.3 | 24.5 |
| Informal | 437 | 1.9 |
2016 council two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Redist |
| Peter Matic | Liberal National | 11,736 | 55.8 | 55.8 |
| Michael Kane | Greens | 9,283 | 44.2 | 44.3 |
| Exhausted | 2,145 | 9.3 |
2016 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Graham Quirk | Liberal National | 11,845 | 51.0 | -7.3 | 51.0 |
| Rod Harding | Labor | 6,065 | 26.1 | +6.1 | 26.5 |
| Ben Pennings | Greens | 4,611 | 19.8 | -0.1 | 19.4 |
| Jeffrey Hodges | Independent | 343 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.3 |
| Karel Boele | People Decide | 154 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Jim Eldridge | Independent | 145 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.6 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 83 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.3 |
| Informal | 386 | 1.6 |
2016 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Graham Quirk | Liberal National | 12,366 | 59.0 | -9.3 | 58.7 |
| Rod Harding | Labor | 8,610 | 41.1 | +9.3 | 41.3 |
| Exhausted | 2,270 | 9.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Paddington have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.
The LNP’s two-candidate-preferred council majorities ranged from 50.2% in the north-east to 58.1% in the south. The LNP mayoral vote followed the same pattern but was slightly stronger.
The Greens outpolled Labor on primary votes in all three areas, ranging from 26.1% in the north-west to 28.9% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP prim council | GRN prim council | LNP 2CP council | LNP 2PP mayoral | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 21.3 | 26.4 | 58.1 | 61.3 | 5,869 | 24.9 |
| North-East | 28.1 | 28.9 | 50.2 | 53.5 | 5,044 | 21.4 |
| North-West | 25.0 | 26.1 | 55.3 | 57.7 | 4,305 | 18.2 |
| Other votes | 23.7 | 27.2 | 57.2 | 60.5 | 5,348 | 22.7 |
| Pre-poll | 25.3 | 25.6 | 56.1 | 58.9 | 3,039 | 12.9 |
Election results in Paddington at the 2016 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs Greens) for council, two-party-preferred votes for lord mayor, and council primary votes for the Greens and Labor.
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On uniform swings this is the LNPs “13th seat” crucial to forming a majority.
I think the Greens are a good shot to win it, but paradoxically mostly if Labor runs hard for it. Under OPV the NSW Nats get hurt bad in the Northern Rivers seats that both the Greens and Labor try to win (and in my experience the booth workers cooperate quite nicely to tell their voters to fill preferences for the other party). Without “campaigns to win” though 30+% of Labor votes will go on the trash and the LNP wins.
BenneeMy experience on pollingh booths is that ALP workers are highly disciplined and say exactly what HTV says.
Groups that are undisciplined are minor conservative supporters. I for instance worked a Fortitude Valley Booth in mid 1970’s for Don Lane and did not use word Liberal once. For older voters I said “for your Coalition candidate” With obvious migrants I said for Don Lane your Coalition candidate or Don Lane your Government candidate.
I was not the least concerned when post election he jumped from Liberal Party to National Party to give Nats a majority.
Were you at all concerned with all the corruption? Didn’t Don Lane get found guilty in the Fitzgerald inquiry?
My implied query above “will Labor run hard for it?” seems to be answered with a resounding no, however the Greens campaign looks extremely strong with what must be close to 200 yard signs in the electorate.
Some of them have been graffiti’d with “scum” and since been replaced.
How important is visibility in ensuring Labor voters fill in preferences? Well, we will see.
Nene
Yes Don Lane got convicted for using government credit card to pay for air travel. I do not defend this but I would rather have Don Lane as an MLA than any one in LNP today.
However I was not promoting Don but demonstrating the differences between ALP and other parties internal discipline. At timesI admire ALP discipline and at other times loath it.