The Liberal National Party hold nineteen seats on Brisbane City Council, alongside five Labor councillors, one Green and one independent. One of these nineteen LNP wards has been redrawn as a very marginal Labor ward, reducing the LNP ward count to eighteen.
If the LNP lose five wards, they would be reduced to just half of the seats on the council. Six would deprive them of a majority entirely.
Labor would need to gain eight wards for a majority in their own right.
There are six LNP-held wards where the margin is less than 6%.
Three of these LNP wards are clustered in the north-west of the city. Andrew Wines holds Enoggera by a 5.6% margin. Peter Matic holds Paddington by a 5.8% margin against the Greens. Steve Toomey holds the Gap by 4.5%.
There are two marginal LNP wards in the south-east. Fiona Cunningham holds Coorparoo by a 3.9% margin, after being appointed to fill a vacancy in April 2019. Krista Adams holds neighbouring Holland Park by a 4.1% margin.
Finally, the LNP’s Adam Allan holds the northern ward of Northgate by a 1.7% margin.
Four of Labor’s six wards are held by margins of less than 6%, but two in particular are quite close.
The eastern ward of Doboy has been redrawn as a very marginal Labor ward with a 0.3% margin. The ward is currently held by LNP councillor Lisa Atwood, who was appointed to the ward in June 2019 after the previous councillor Ryan Murphy shifted to the much safer neighbouring ward.
Labor’s Jared Cassidy holds the northern ward of Deagon by a 2.9% margin.