Council margin – LNP 19.7%
Mayoral margin – LNP 21.5%
Incumbent councillor
David McLachlan, since 2006.
Geography
North-eastern Brisbane. Hamilton covers suburbs immediately to the north of the Brisbane river and to the north-east of the Brisbane CBD, as well as Brisbane Airport. Suburbs include Clayfield, Hendra, Albion, Ascot, Bowen Hills, Newstead and Kedron.
Redistribution
Hamilton’s south-western border was completely redrawn. The ward gained Bowen Hills, Newstead and surrounding areas from Central ward, and lost its western fringe to Enoggera and Marchant. These changes increased the LNP margin from 17.6% to 19.7%.
History
Liberal councillor Tim Nicholls won Hamilton in 2000, and was re-elected in 2004. He resigned in 2006 to run for the state seat of Clayfield, which covers a similar area, and won that seat. Nicholls still holds his state seat, and served as Treasurer in the LNP government from 2012 to 2015.
The 2006 by-election was won by Liberal candidate David McLachlan. He increased his margin from 14.7% (2004 results on 2008 boundaries) to 20.4% in 2008, and further to 24.4% in 2012. McLachlan won a third full term in 2016 despite a 7% swing to Labor.
Candidates
- David McLachlan (Liberal National)
- Leah Malzard (Labor)
- Miranda Bertram (Greens)
Assessment
Hamilton is a very safe LNP ward.
2016 council result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David McLachlan | Liberal National | 13,697 | 61.2 | -6.7 | 63.5 |
| Philip Anthony | Labor | 5,461 | 24.4 | +5.0 | 23.5 |
| Rachel Hannam | Greens | 3,216 | 14.4 | +1.7 | 13.0 |
| Informal | 559 | 2.4 |
2016 council two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David McLachlan | Liberal National | 14,037 | 67.6 | -6.8 | 69.7 |
| Philip Anthony | Labor | 6,714 | 32.4 | +6.8 | 30.3 |
| Exhausted | 1,623 | 7.3 |
2016 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Graham Quirk | Liberal National | 14,217 | 63.3 | -6.7 | 65.4 |
| Rod Harding | Labor | 5,367 | 23.9 | +6.0 | 22.9 |
| Ben Pennings | Greens | 2,106 | 9.4 | -1.2 | 8.6 |
| Jeffrey Hodges | Independent | 406 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.7 |
| Karel Boele | People Decide | 172 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.7 |
| Jim Eldridge | Independent | 116 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.4 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 92 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.4 |
| Informal | 484 | 2.1 |
2016 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Graham Quirk | Liberal National | 14,548 | 69.5 | -7.4 | 71.5 |
| Rod Harding | Labor | 6,388 | 30.5 | +7.4 | 28.6 |
| Exhausted | 1,540 | 6.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Hamilton was split into three groups: north-east, north-west and south.
The LNP won a large majority in all three areas on both ballots, but did significantly stronger in the south and north-east with majorities over 70%, compared to 62.5% in the north-west for the council ballot and 65% on the mayoral ballot.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 10.4% in the north-east to 16.1% in the north-west.
| Voter group | GRN council prim | LNP council 2PP | LNP mayoral 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 10.7 | 73.4 | 75.5 | 5,729 | 27.0 |
| North-East | 10.4 | 72.3 | 74.0 | 4,028 | 19.0 |
| North-West | 16.1 | 62.5 | 65.2 | 4,005 | 18.9 |
| Other votes | 16.4 | 69.5 | 69.7 | 4,451 | 21.0 |
| Pre-poll | 12.0 | 68.8 | 70.9 | 2,976 | 14.0 |
Election results in Hamilton at the 2016 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes for council and lord mayor, and Greens primary votes for council.
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Doesn’t seem to be much interest from either Labor or Greens, despite the corresponding area in state now being a marginal seat, and now without the bonus from having the party leader being the local MP.
The political realignment that we saw in the 2019 federal election would suggest that an affluent urban seat like Clayfield is now very winnable for Labor/Greens (while outer suburban and regional Labor seats will be tough). It’s also looking like the Greens most winnable LNP held state seat (the other being notoriously safe LNP Moggill)
But no sign that either party is scoping out the opportunity.
Results were certainly better for the left in Hamilton Ward at the federal election, but the seat is still a long way from winnable. I found a three-party-preferred of about 22% for each of Labor and the Greens and then about 55% for the LNP.
This works out as a two candidate preferred of about 60-40. Given that Council, like Senate, is not full preferential, that might even be accurate.