Central – Brisbane 2020

Council margin – LNP 8.1%
Mayoral margin – LNP 10.3%

Incumbent councillor
Vicki Howard, since 2012.

Geography
Central Brisbane. The Central ward covers the Brisbane CBD along with the suburbs of Spring Hill, New Farm, Newstead and Fortitude Valley.

Redistribution
Central has contracted, losing its northern edge to Paddington and Hamilton. This area includes Herston. These changes slightly reduced the LNP’s margin from 8.2% to 8.1%.

History
The Central ward has a long history of being held by Labor, but has been in LNP hands since 2012.

Labor’s David Hinchliffe won Central ward in 1988. For most of his tenure, Central was considered a safe Labor seat. In 2000 he polled over 63% of the primary vote, and after that election the Labor vote began to collapse. In 2004, Hinchliffe suffered a 15.6% swing, with a swing of over 17% to the Greens. Hinchliffe held on with a 12% margin.

The 2008 changes significantly weakened Labor, with their 12% margin falling to only 8.4%. At the subsequent election, Hinchliffe only managed to win by 102 votes, or a 0.3% margin.

David Hinchliffe retired in 2012, and Labor’s candidate selection was a mess. The original candidate Paul Crowther was replaced by Grace Grace after she lost her overlapping state seat at the 2012 state election.

The Electoral Commission ruled that state election candidates could not stand in the local government election due to the overlapping timetable, and thus Grace was replaced by Heather Beattie, wife of the former Premier.

Beattie lost to LNP candidate Vicki Howard with an 8.9% swing – a combined swing of 17% over two elections. On a primary vote, the Labor vote in Central dropped from 63.4% in 2000 to 30.5% in 2012. Howard was re-elected in 2016 with a slight 0.4% swing against her.

Candidates

• Judi Jabour (Labor)
• Trina Massey (Greens)
• Vicki Howard (Liberal National)

Assessment
The Central ward on paper looks like a reasonably safe LNP ward, with seven other wards ranked as more marginal. But the large cumulative swing towards the LNP in 2008 and 2012 suggests that this could be a high water-mark for the LNP and a surge for the left could see Howard in trouble.

This ward is one of the best in Brisbane for the Greens, who slightly boosted their vote thanks to the redistribution. They have the potential to overtake Labor here.

2016 council result

2016 council two-party-preferred result

2016 mayoral result

2016 mayoral two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown

Booths in Central ward have been split into two parts: east and west.

The LNP won a majority in both areas, but did substantially better in the east than in the west, and did even better amongst the other votes which includes postal votes.

The Greens came third with their primary vote being strongest in the west of the ward.

Election results in Central at the 2016 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes for council and lord mayor, and Greens primary votes for council.

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