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I honestly think the Greens could win here.
@SpaceFish this is the most likely Greens gain.
Agree and Peter Khalil will not be popular and is probably a liability like Danby here. If Labor does hold on i wonder if they will look for a chance to replace him with a more left-wing member like they did in neighboring Batman/Cooper when they got the chance.
I’m surprised they didn’t move Khalil to Maribrynong and put a left candidate in Wills
@ Darth Vadar
I actually had a discussion with John on the 2022 Maribyrnong thread i suggested Labor should have done exactly that
Perhaps when Shorten announced his retirement they should’ve moved Khalil to Maribyrnong and had Jo Briskey contest Wills as she is from the left.
Either way Bob Hawke will be spinning in his grave when the inevitable happens (aka the seat falls to the Greens), and yes I know the boundaries weren’t the same as when he held the seat but it still had Brunswick and Coburg when he was the member IIRC, both of which are now Green areas.
@ Tommo9
The boundaries are not too different from when Hawke. i have included a link so you can check historical maps. Back then included parts of Essendon & Moonee Ponds (more affluent areas with a decent Liberal vote). These boundaries are more left-wing than in the past
https://pappubahry.com/pseph/aus_stats/?plot=map&year=2013&colour_by=informal&multiple=max&geo_map=1
If yard signs could vote the greens would win big here. Samantha is everywhere in some parts of the electorate
If Wills/Cooper was east-west – north of Bell Street – rather than north-south, Khalil would be safe and wouldn’t have to move to Maribyrnong. I think Cooper and Wills should become east-west seats because of the Bell Street demographic divide.
Agreed with Jesse, sooooo many yard signs here. Samantha is clearly running a big campaign. Alas yard signs don’t vote so still not a done deal here
Ian,
Demographically it might make sense to have Wills and Cooper east-west, but almost all of the communication lines in the inner north still run in a north-south direction. Apart from Bell Street, all of the east-west roads in this area are fairly minor.
In fact, there is very limited communication across Merri Creek once you get north of Bell Street. Even if a southern seat kind of made some sense, the northern seat would be very much in two disconnected parts.
Mark
Absolutely, there is no bridge above bell street until near the ring road. Absolutely couldn’t make a north of wills/cooper electorate. Tbh the current layouts make so much sense idk why the aec would ever touch them