Wills – Australia 2025

I honestly think the Greens could win here.

@SpaceFish this is the most likely Greens gain.

Agree and Peter Khalil will not be popular and is probably a liability like Danby here. If Labor does hold on i wonder if they will look for a chance to replace him with a more left-wing member like they did in neighboring Batman/Cooper when they got the chance.

I’m surprised they didn’t move Khalil to Maribrynong and put a left candidate in Wills

@ Darth Vadar
I actually had a discussion with John on the 2022 Maribyrnong thread i suggested Labor should have done exactly that

Perhaps when Shorten announced his retirement they should’ve moved Khalil to Maribyrnong and had Jo Briskey contest Wills as she is from the left.

Either way Bob Hawke will be spinning in his grave when the inevitable happens (aka the seat falls to the Greens), and yes I know the boundaries weren’t the same as when he held the seat but it still had Brunswick and Coburg when he was the member IIRC, both of which are now Green areas.

@ Tommo9
The boundaries are not too different from when Hawke. i have included a link so you can check historical maps. Back then included parts of Essendon & Moonee Ponds (more affluent areas with a decent Liberal vote). These boundaries are more left-wing than in the past

https://pappubahry.com/pseph/aus_stats/?plot=map&year=2013&colour_by=informal&multiple=max&geo_map=1

If yard signs could vote the greens would win big here. Samantha is everywhere in some parts of the electorate

If Wills/Cooper was east-west – north of Bell Street – rather than north-south, Khalil would be safe and wouldn’t have to move to Maribyrnong. I think Cooper and Wills should become east-west seats because of the Bell Street demographic divide.

Agreed with Jesse, sooooo many yard signs here. Samantha is clearly running a big campaign. Alas yard signs don’t vote so still not a done deal here

Ian,
Demographically it might make sense to have Wills and Cooper east-west, but almost all of the communication lines in the inner north still run in a north-south direction. Apart from Bell Street, all of the east-west roads in this area are fairly minor.

In fact, there is very limited communication across Merri Creek once you get north of Bell Street. Even if a southern seat kind of made some sense, the northern seat would be very much in two disconnected parts.

Mark
Absolutely, there is no bridge above bell street until near the ring road. Absolutely couldn’t make a north of wills/cooper electorate. Tbh the current layouts make so much sense idk why the aec would ever touch them

Seeing a lot of campaigning going on here. Greens seem to have a very big ground game. ALP seems to have started recently and are flyering at train stations. Feels like it is about to get busy

Northcote and Brunswick aren’t even that similar demographically. Brunswick is much grungier and Northcote is much bougier (lots of boutiques etc, fsncy restaurants). Northcote has more families, while Brunswick is a bit younger. Brunswick has more of an Islamic community which is pretty much non-existent in Northcote, and Brunswick is far more radical politically.

Adam, agree. some of the council results in Merri-bek were very interesting. One of the wards was 56% greens, 17% Vic Soc 20% Labor. Those are numbers people in Darebin could only dream of

Greens gain. Local and demographic factors who have it in for the Labor Party (but aren’t inclined to vote Liberal) are going to bite Labor/Khalil firmly in the arse in this electorate. Don’t think even a ‘left’ Labor candidate would be enough to save them either.

Victorian Socialists have just announced that they will not be running a candidate in Wills, instead they will be supporting Socialist Alliance’s perennial candidate, former VicSoc candidate and incumbent councilor Sue Bolton. Together VicSoc and SocAll received 6.4% in 2022, whether Bolton will reach that alone or most of the VicSoc vote will go the Greens is yet to be seen.

im still not convinced the greens will win here. they will certainly throw everything at it but the greens vote hasnt moved since the last election on national polls even in victorian sub natonal polling. i think the margin will be small maybe 2-3% but i think khalil will hold on due to the fact he will get the centre right votes to keep him in office.

I wouldn’t trust state-wide polling to determine anything regarding how the Greens may go in a particular seat, since they really only run hard with very targeted campaigns in their target seats.

Polls adjust more broadly for demographics and location type such as inner, outer metro, regional etc but they would completely miss the factors that are specific to an individual seat campaign.

still i dont think the greens will overcome the 4.6% margin in one go. maybe 2028 at this stage in my opinion

@john Do you think Liberal voters might preference the Greens ahead of Labor to ensure there’s 1 less Labor member sitting in Canberra and improve a Liberal minority negotiating position? There might be enough there to get the Greens over the line.

@witness No not a chance im sure if they could go back they wouldnt be putting Bandt into the seat of melbourne in 2010 either given the greens radicalism of late and antisemitic behaviour they have no chance of getting lib preferences. a greens member is the same as a labor member because the greens will never back the libs for inoirty govt so it doesnt improve the libs position. im sure if they did the greens would win but they wont

liberal voters can do whatever they please but the liberal party wont be preferencing the greens above labor

They did in the 2022 state election, but can almost guarantee they won’t in 2026 now. That will make seats like Pascoe Vale, Preston and Footscray pretty safe for Labor again.

@adam the state greens arent as radical and focus on the state issues and i personally agree with preferencing the state greens in order to hurt state labor.

The Vic Liberals had a put Labor last campaign in 2022 which meant that they had the Greens before Labor on their HTV cards. Generally Liberal voters put Labor before the Greens.

Witness, I can’t add much more to what John and Adam have said – there will be a small number of Liberal voters who preference the Greens ahead of Labour in all seats, but that is a very small number and unlikely make a difference.

Trent, I think you massively overstate the ‘local factors’ – particularly when most of the local factors that drive the Greens vote is demographics. What I thought we found in QLD State is the Greens lost votes in the inner city and gained in some outer suburbs – whether that is a change in the demographics or the demo’s have moved is a more interesting question that probably cancels itself out in this seat.

More broadly, the one issue that the Greens seem to be hanging their hat on here I am not convinced is the winner for them they think it is.

Yes votante but that was state labor and state greens. They seem to be far less radical and are less focused on the woke agenda.

The Greens really need to get this division locked away before it gets redistributed back north of Park Street. They may not have much of an opportunity in 27/28 if they end up using their 2010-2013 playbook in the potential upcoming minority government.

I think 4.6% is a relatively difficult margin to overcome for them. They seem to have made no inroads in polling despite having a disappointing almost centre-right Labor government in power in a time when populism is on the rise. That said, this is the seat where their support for Gaza/Palestine will have the greatest electoral benefit and they have a well-known candidate in Samantha Ratnam, so it’s quite possible for this to flip alongside Macnamara.

Labor will need really tight Liberal preference flows to even hope to hold on. Last time it 73:27. As Lib HTVs will be hard to find, then Labor might have to resort to handing out for the Libs to get that preference flow up.

Labor would never go that far. Given their recent behavior most libs will be following the it and preferencong labor

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2025/wills2025#comment-826287

It didn`t include much of Essendon or Moonee Ponds before the 1989 redistribution took effect at the 1990 election (it had had more Preston though). Had the 1989 redistribution not taken those parts of Essendon and Moonee Ponds out and replaced them with places such as St Albans, Maribyrnong would likely have fallen to the Liberals.

I think this will a pretty comfortable Labor retain. Whilst the Greens will get some swings in the north part of the seat, I expect the southern part of the seat to swing in Labor. The parts originally from Melbourne could easily swing 10+ to Labor without Bandt’s personal vote.

LAB: 55%
GRN: 45%

@drake iwouldnt say comfortable i think the greens might get a bit closer but it think liberal preferences will save Khalil here. Labor curently only hold it on a 4.6% swing so your suggesting labor will improve its position. Gaza issue will help the greens but i think Khalil will retain on about 2% or under. he will probably be in trouble in 2028 if labor remain in govt he managaed to lose 5% of his primary vote in 2022 and remained stagnant on both the 2pp and 2cp angaisnt the libs and greens respectively. in a year when labor swept to power and had probably its best result ever in VIC. i expect that drop to continue and to shed votes to both the Libs and Greens.

LAB 52%
GRN 48%

There’ll be a swing to the Greens. However, I can see some pathway for Labor just cling on.

For the Greens to win, they’d need to come first on primary votes by sufficient margin plust get a decent amount of preferences from Vic Socialists (and AJP if they’re running). This is normally the prerequisite.

The Greens have won seats off Labor through these ways:
1. Labor dropping to third place e.g. Griffith, Balmain (NSW).
2. Liberals directing preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor e.g. Melbourne, South Brisbane (QLD).
3. The Greens come first on primary votes, followed by Labor but thanks to a sufficiently large gap and preferences from left-wing parties e.g. AJP, the Greens win.

There’s a near zero chance either of the first two will happen at this election in Wills. Labor has to narrow the gap between the Greens and Labor and hope that preferences will get them over the line.

Labor may also employ the strategy of getting voters south of Bell St to switch to Labor, especially wooing those in newly-added territory e.g. Carlton North, Fitzroy North. There’s a possibility that the Greens primary vote is inflated by Adam Bandt’s personal vote in Melbourne as well as Labor putting in very little effort there last election.

Labor have been kept in the game by maintaining their vote in the North. There is the danger for Labor that voters in the north will prefer the VSP to the Greens and will have jumped directly from Labor and VSP and then to Greens via preferences. The VSP may split the Greens and allow preferences to leak to Labor. Labor need to keep their vote up in the North. What ever happens, it is going to be nasty and it is going to be expensive. If money and resources are needed elsewhere, I wonder if this is a seat Labor might let go – despite the existential risk.

There is potential for vote-splitting on the left of Labor, which could deny the Greens the seat. Votes can get split and those swinging away from Labor in protest might vote Vic Socialists or another party and put Labor ahead of the Greens.

The Vic Socialists have pulled in between 5% and 10% in various state seats, including in Werribee at the by-election. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get roughly the same in Wills, especially on the back of the Palestine issue as well as economic issues. The candidate is a local councillor – Sue Bolton. It’s interesting seeing that Fusion is running here too.

Fitzroy North and Carlton North are ripe territory for Labor to increase their vote and hold off the Greens in this seat. When Labor aren’t competitive (like in Melbourne) the Labor vote crashes, but when they are (like they will be in Wills considering they hold the seat) the vote is quite high, and can even be higher than the Greens.

Case in point: compare the Fitzroy North booth near Edinburgh Gardens in Melbourne in 2019 (Greens 65.7%, Labor 14.3% TCP: Greens 84.5). One year earlier when Labor was competitive in the state seat of Brunswick the result at this booth was ALP 45.6%, Greens 40.5% TCP: ALP 53%. When the ALP was not really competitive in Brunswick in 2022 the ALP vote dropped to 27.2% and the TCP was Greens 66.4 at this booth.

I’d expect the at the very least a 5% swing to the Labor Party in Fitzroy North and Carlton North. This might make up for a bigger swing to the Greens in the north of the electorate. I also think the Greens vote can’t really get much higher than it already is in Brunswick. It has probably close to its ceiling. Predicting an ALP retain with a margin of about 2.5%.

Actually, just realised the ALP 53-47 result in the Fitzroy North booth in the 2018 state election was in the seat of Richmond, with a long time popular incumbent and no Liberal candidate. But it just proves that this area has a strong connection to their local MP and with Bandt no longer on the ballot there will be a sizeable swing. Greens will still win that 68% booth near Edinburgh Gardens but expect it will be sub 60% 2CP, not 68% like it was in 2022.

Labor and independent councillors have just voted to lower th

Labor and independent councillors have just voted to lower the Palestinian flag flying over Merri-bek Council (which mostly aligns with Wills) with opposition from the Greens and Socialist Alliance councillor Sue Bolton (candidate for Wills) it really seems like the local Labor party has completely given up on pro-Palestine voters.

The Labor brand is certainly in trouble here.

I’m sure the majority of people in Wills are pro Palestine. I’m not convinced that a war on the other side of the world over which Australia has no influence or involvement is a big vote changer. Time will tell I guess.
Most people in neighbouring Cooper would be pro Palestine too but it will have zero impact on the vote there, in fact there is likely to be a swing to Labor there. Although there is a lower Muslim population there and if any voting bloc is going to change their vote over this it is the Muslim population.

I think both wills and Cooper will swing towards the greens but Labor will hold both

From what I am seeing. The greens are campaigning very hard in wills, I don’t know for sure but it feels like a very big campaign. Not sure about cooper haven’t seen much