ALP 4.6% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Peter Khalil, since 2016.
Geography
Northern Melbourne. Wills covers most of the City of Merri-bek, and north-western parts of the City of Yarra. Key suburbs include Brunswick, Carlton North, Coburg, Fitzroy North, Glenroy, Hadfield, Fawkner, Pascoe Vale and Princes Hill.
Redistribution
Wills shifted south, taking in Carlton North, Fitzroy North and Princes Hill. Wills then lost areas west of Pascoe Vale Road to Maribyrnong. These changes cut the Labor margin against the Greens from 8.6% to 4.6%.
History
Wills was created for the 1949 election as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. Apart from a period in the early 1990s, it has always been held by the Labor Party.
Wills was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s Bill Bryson. He had previously held the seat of Bourke from 1943 to 1946. Bryson served as a member of the ALP until the split of 1955, when he joined the new Labor Party (Anti-Communist), which became the Democratic Labor Party. He lost the seat at the 1955 election.
The seat was won in 1955 by the ALP’s Gordon Bryant. Bryant served as a minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1975, and retired in 1980.
Wills was won in 1980 by former President of the ACTU, Bob Hawke. Hawke was in the rare position of a politician who was already a significant national figure in his own right before entering Parliament, and he was immediately appointed to the Labor frontbench. Hawke failed in an attempt to replace Bill Hayden as Labor leader in 1982, but was successful in another attempt on the very day that Malcolm Fraser called the 1983 election, and he won that election, becoming Prime Minister.
Hawke won re-election at the 1984, 1987 and 1990 elections, but in 1991 he was defeated in a caucus leadership ballot by Paul Keating, and he resigned from Parliament in 1992.
The 1992 Wills by-election was a remarkable campaign, with 22 candidates standing. The seat was won by former footballer Phil Cleary on a hard-left socialist platform. Cleary’s victory was overturned in the High Court due to his status as a public school teacher on unpaid leave, shortly before the 1993 election. He was re-elected at the 1993 election, and held the seat until his defeat in 1996.
Wills was won back for the ALP in 1996 by Kelvin Thomson, a Victorian state MP since 1988. Thomson was appointed to the Federal Labor shadow ministry in 1997, and remained on the frontbench until early 2007. Thomson retained his seat until his retirement in 2016.
Labor’s Peter Khalil won in 2016, and was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
- Kathrine Ashton (Family First)
- Sue Bolton (Socialist Alliance)
- Peter Khalil (Labor)
- Jeff Kidney (Liberal)
- Owen Miller (Fusion)
- Samantha Ratnam (Greens)
- Bruce Stevens (One Nation)
Assessment
Wills is a very marginal electorate and a key target for the Greens. The redistribution significantly improved the Greens position, and this will be one to watch.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Khalil | Labor | 35,449 | 38.9 | -5.4 | 36.4 |
| Sarah Jefford | Greens | 25,793 | 28.3 | +2.0 | 32.8 |
| Tom Wright | Liberal | 15,771 | 17.3 | -0.8 | 16.2 |
| Irene Zivkovic | United Australia | 3,352 | 3.7 | +0.5 | 3.3 |
| Emma Black | Victorian Socialists | 2,714 | 3.0 | -1.5 | 3.1 |
| Sue Bolton | Socialist Alliance | 3,096 | 3.4 | +3.4 | 2.9 |
| Jill Tindal | One Nation | 2,554 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.5 |
| Leah Horsfall | Animal Justice | 1,680 | 1.8 | -1.9 | 1.8 |
| Sam Sergi | Federation Party | 789 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.7 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 4,855 | 5.1 | +0.8 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Khalil | Labor | 53,415 | 58.6 | +0.1 | 54.6 |
| Sarah Jefford | Greens | 37,783 | 41.4 | -0.1 | 45.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Khalil | Labor | 69,104 | 75.8 | +0.1 | 77.1 |
| Tom Wright | Liberal | 22,094 | 24.2 | -0.1 | 22.9 |
Booths in Wills have been split into four parts: north-east, north-west, south, and Brunswick, which sits between the other three.
The Labor two-candidate-preferred vote varies enormously across the electorate. Labor won 59% in the north-east and 68.3% in the north-west. The Greens polled 54.5% in Brunswick and 66.5% in the south.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.3% in the south to 22.6% in the north-west.
| Voter group | LIB prim | ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Brunswick | 9.4 | 45.5 | 15,075 | 15.0 |
| North-East | 14.9 | 59.0 | 13,871 | 13.8 |
| North-West | 22.6 | 68.3 | 10,368 | 10.3 |
| South | 8.3 | 33.5 | 8,746 | 8.7 |
| Pre-poll | 18.2 | 57.3 | 30,486 | 30.4 |
| Other votes | 19.1 | 56.2 | 21,707 | 21.7 |
Election results in Wills at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
Peter seems to have decided to not go to any of the forums which is certainly… a choice.
Just to note: there have been two candidate forums so far in Wills.
1. Safer World for All Election Forum in Wills. Candidates attending: Peter Khalil, Samantha Ratnam, Sue Bolton. Media: 11 March 2025, Brunswick Voice, Muslim group backs Ratnam campaign https://brunswickvoice.com.au/muslim-group-backs-ratnam-campaign/
2. Wills Candidates Forum for a safe healthy and sustainable future 18 March. Candidates attending: Samantha Ratnam (Greens), Sue Bolton (Socialist Alliance), Owen Miller (Fusion) , Margee Glover (Legalize Cannabis). Peter Khalil did not attend citing conflicting commitments (even though he was offered several dates as the sitting MP several weeks previous) He had attended previous election Climate Candidate forums in 2016, 2019, 2022. Media: 19 March 2025, Brunswick Voice, Khalil a no show at climate forum https://brunswickvoice.com.au/khalil-a-no-show-at-climate-forum/
Evidence that both Khalil and Ratnam are putting in effort on the ground in new parts of the electorate in Carlton North, Princess Park with doorknocking, leafleting.
Palestine/Gaza issue
In the 2021 Census Wills had 16,236 people who declared their faith as Islam. That is 10.3 % of the population. I suspect it is also more weighted in the northern suburbs such as Glenroy and Fawkner where Labor has traditionally done well. Muslim Votes Matter has put up a webpage on Khalil’s parliamentary record on Palestine and Gaza: https://www.muslimvotesmatter.com.au/khalil
This will impact Labor’s vote in the north to some extent. How much is anyones guess.
Other issues:
From my following the digital campaigns. Issues: While Cost of Living is top level, concern over environment and climate action is part of the second tier along with Healthcare, housing and the Economy. Khalil is focussing on government’s healthcare messaging; Ratnam on Government’s climate and environment failings and housing, and both often presenting within a cost of living frame.
This really is an electorate to watch. Many issues local to the electorate which won’t be picked up by broader polling.
Still amazing after all these years and elections that the Greens have still yet to break the Bell St divide, though the Greens primary vote for the polling places in the north are steadily creeping up, maybe not fast enough for the Greens liking though.
The Greens don’t even appear to have fully broken through south of Bell St yet, on 2022 results they haven’t broken through north of Moreland Rd (the boundary of Coburg and Brunswick I believe) – look at those big red 62 and 70 in Coburg and Pascoe Vale South.
I also think the big Greens margins in Fitzroy North will come down, and the Greens vote in Brunswick will rise to above Fitzroy North’s numbers. The loss of Adam Bandt on the ballot in Fitzroy North will be significant. I would say Brunswick is more left wing than Fitzroy North, in fact Brunswick is probably the most left wing place in Australia.
I have seen loads of Samantha Ratnam corflutes in Brunswick and none of Peter Khalil, yet I have seen quite a few Peter Khalil ones in Fitzroy North.
The blue 53 on the ALP v LIB TPP appears to be a mistake.
53-47 alp retain
51-49 Greens Gain
I don’t have special insight regarding this race, but I think it is pretty clear that Gaza is hurting Labor in this electorate. Greens votes in heavily Muslim voting booths in recent state elections have shot up, and that’s not getting into international results like UK Labour. It’s an uphill battle for Labor to retain this. I favour them in other electorates but here in particular has a heavy, Labor-voting Muslim base in a seat that is actually marginal and where those voters turning on Labor are enough to make a difference.
Maybe the local campaign dynamics will throw a spanner in the works, but if the Greens run a competent campaign this feels like a chance that is begging to be taken.
In the recent WA State Election, the Greens outpolled the Libs in Nollamara Primary School and had a big swing towards them in nearby Dianalla Secondary College. Nollamara has a much bigger Muslim population than the rest of Morely.
The swing towards Greens in Electorates like Girrawheen, Cannington, Thornlie and Belmont were much bigger in the parts of the electorate with relatively high Muslim population.
Haven’t we seen in recent elections (and I don’t count VIC council because of the non partisan tickets) that there has been a small but noticeable move away from the Greens in their core areas and a similar small but noticeable move towards them in more heavily Muslim areas. That suggests to me that it will cancel each other out in this seat, and indeed if the 2 things are liked (as I suspect they probably are) then it might well mean a loss of support for the Greens in this particular seat.
Take this with a grain of salt as I am wrong about almost everything.
I think you are mostly correct MLV, the swing against the Greens has been in the affluent type suburbs that are considered ‘teal like’ or have Liberal vs Greens contests. I believe several analysts including Anthony Green have mentioned that this is due to the Greens more controversial stances on issues like Palestine, which seem to alienate the affluent progressive leaning voters who are more concerned with the core environmental or social justice issues.
Agree Yoh An.
That trend seems to be broadly true and would certainly apply in suburbs like Prahran, Windsor, Richmond and probably even areas like Northcote & Thornbury albeit to a lesser extent.
However, the traditional Greens areas in Wills – being Brunswick & Coburg – are a little different to them. Whereas the typical Greens voter in Prahran, Windsor & Richmond would have more in common with ‘Teal’ voters, the typical Greens voter in Brunswick would have more in common with Victorian Socialists voters.
So I don’t see those issues swinging voters away from the Greens in Brunswick. If Brunswick voters were to swing away from the Greens it would more likely be towards VS and then back to the Greens via preferences anyway.
MLV yep council was not good for the Greens everywhere except Merri-bek where it was pretty good for Greens and Socialists and dismal for Labor. There were areas in the south where VicSoc were in the 2pp
As mentioned by Trent, the Greens voters in the south of this electorate are not “Teal” types but VS types. So I doubt the Gaza issue is hurting them in that area. And we’ve seen well over double digit swings in heavily Muslim booths away from Labor (with most of it spraying around, but likely heading to the Greens in a 2CP race). The section of the electorate where Labor can expect a swing is probably the portion taken in from Melbourne around Fitzroy North/Carlton North, but that’s a result of the loss of Adam Bandt’s personal vote and Labor’s minimal campaign efforts in his seat.
In other words, in a Greens vs Labor contest, as a crude guess, about 45% of the electorate would be expected to heavily swing to the Greens, 45% would perhaps be status quo and 10% would heavily swing towards Labor. That seems to be a dangerous position for Labor.
It is also definitely notable that the vast majority of this seat is Merri-bek council which is perhaps the only council that the Greens did well inside of an overall poor performance in the 2024 local elections.
That’s right Adda. I think more notable is how bad labor did on Merri-bek council. Was a very poor performance in areas they need to do well in to hold wills. Particularly in box forest
The preferences of Socialist Alliance candidate Cr Sue Bolton could prove crucial for the Greens to erode ALP majorities at booths in Fawkner and Glenroy. As Chris notes above ALP candidates performed very poorly in the 2024 Council elections, while Bolton was successful in the Fawkner ward. Bolton is likely to garner a lot more primaries than the 3000 she got in 2022 and the bulk look likely to flow to the Greens even though her final how to vote card has not appeared in my mailbox yet. Bolton is a staunchly pro-Palestine candidate, a stance that helped her win the council election last year. She looks set to harvest Muslim votes from Khalil that were probably cast for him in 2022. Combined with Green-voting Carlton and Nth Fitzroy being joined to the electorate after the redistribution, I’m tipping a Labor loss this time round.