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The Only Possible way for the LNP to lose this seat is if Independent Noosa MP Sandy Bolton decides to contest.
The issue is Noosa is very demographically different from the rest of the seat. A lot of the rest of the seat is White working class/One Nation voters etc so Sandy Bolton probably will not appeal in Maryborough.
Sandy Bolton wouldn’t win this. Never.
This is way more than just Noosa. It’s also got towns like Cherbourg, Kikilvan, Poona, Rainbow Beach, Tiaro, Tinnanbar and Tin Can Bay. It’s also got the cities of Gympie and Maryborough. It’s also got Fraser Island (K’gari).
@Nether Portal i never said Sandy Bolton would win, at best she’d poll 3rd with 14-15% of first preferences, nearly half of which would come from the LNP putting them well below 40%
Noosa should not be in this seat.
Wonder What would happen if previous mp for Maryborough contested?
Gympie is a problem though
This seat contains
1.100% of Gympie
2. 100% of Noosa
3. 14% of Nicklin
4. 68% of Maryborough
will post the booths later tonight
@Nimalan thanks, will do.
Booths
1. Anamoor
2. Baddow
3. Bauple
4. Belltop
5. Bonooroo
5. Boreen Point
6. Coooloola Cove
7. Coolum Beach PPVC
8. Cooran
9. Cooray
10 Cooray South
11. Cootharabba Road
12. Curra
13. Federal
14. Glenwood
15. Goomboorian
16. Goomeri
17. Granville
19. Gunalda
20. Gympie Central
22. Gympie East
23. Gympie North
25. Horseshoe Bend (Gympie)
25. Imbil
26. Kandanga
27. Kikivian
28. Kin Kora
29. Lower Wonga
30. Maryborough
31. Maryborough West
32. Monland
33. Mothar Mountain
34. Mungar
35. Murgon
36. Noosa Heads
37. Noosa Heads PPVC
38. Noosa Ville
39. Peregian Beach
40. Pomona
41. Rainbow Beach
42. Southside
42. Tewantin
43. Tiaro
44. Tin Can Bay
45. Tinana
46. Tinbeerwah
47. Veteran
48. Weyba
49. Widgee
50. Wolvi
@ Nether Portal
My plan is to do Fairfax next work my way South along the Coast and then move inland into Wright and Kennedy will be the last seat. I plan to start Fairfax on Thursday complete the Coastal seats by this time next week and then the following week do the inland seats outstanding from Wright to Kennedy. It will give you a much needed break from all the maths 🙂
State level TPP/TCP here:
* LNP: 53.9%
* Labor/Independent: 46.1%
Note that the Labor TPP is combined with Sandy Bolton’s TCP in Noosa since the ECQ doesn’t calculate the notional TPP for non-classic contests.
Overall, while Labor technically did 7.4% better here on the state level in 2024 than on the federal level in 2022, that figure is kinda misleading since it’s combined with teal independent Sandy Bolton’s TCP in Noosa.
Without any votes from Noosa, the LNP’s TPP against Labor would be 63.3%, which is actually 2.0% better than on the federal level for the LNP.
@Nimalan sounds like a good idea.
Thanks Nether Portal, when you get a chance over the next few days if you could do the table by % who speaking English at home that will be great.
@Nimalan will do.
Np
See Wikipedia
Appears 2pp is later available
This may help with wide bay
@Mick Quinlivan thanks, I will look at that.
Tomorrow though I’ve already calculated a record three seats today.