Whitlam – Australia 2025

John they are not trying to stop Bathurst. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-06/bathurst-1000-land-claim-misinformation/105011814

Not yet anyway.

sounds like the well worn traditional LNP campaign tactic of a scare campaign mixed with a hint of dog whistling

I wouldn’t be taking betting advice from the partisans on this site that’s for sure

@ maxim
Yes I agree.. I don’t pretend to give advice on betting…..I advise all be very careful.

Never take advice on betting. Go with your gut.

Go with you gut would lose too

Only go if you’ve got good reason to think you have deeper insight than the market at large or the bookie

If you don’t know, vote no?

If I were the Libs they should dump Britton and approach Alex O’Brien, President of the Responsible Future Group. Very articulate bloke and has huge support down on the coast due to his advocacy against the wind farms. I reckon he would thump it in if he was the Libs candidate for Whitlam.

@carol agreed

Britton and his campaign team must think the voters of Whitlam are idiots. Using a photo of yourself wearing a hard yakka shirt is very unauthentic. Seriously, is this all this num nut can do is appear to be blue collar. Very insulting. I know for a fact Britton is very the much the contrary as this ‘defence contractor’ he works for is his dad’s business, Britton Maritime of Kurnell . Furthermore, this business secured a $9m defence contract under the former Morrison Government. From what I have read his father was or is a member of the Liberal Party. So Mr Britton is part of the elite even though he pretends otherwise!

It’s not hard for an informed political observer to get an edge over the betting market. The market is more or less based on vibes and media attention. People who actually follow polls and create models that adjust swing based on demographics will consistently outperform the market, from the track record of every election I’ve followed since I started paying attention to markets in 2020 Queensland.

It’s been a bit quiet on here.

I’ve got a few questions for any Labor members who might be here, or anyone else who can answer.

Any Labor party folks hanging around here who can shed some light on how the local branches are feeling these days? Are people still fuming? Is there a preferred candidate in mind for the future? Or are they worried about another parachute job after Berry?

I’ve certainly got my thoughts but I wonder what everyone else reckons.

@electoral im not a local but yes there was a couple labor locals on here who werent to happy about the decision and have thought about voting Ind. what are your thoughts? the fact nat have decided to contest here could spell trouble for labor since both the liberal and labor candidates are basically blow ins and not true to the core values of either party. also the fact there are a couple inds are contesting is gonna hurt the labor primary and while labor will make the 2cp/2pp it is unclear against who atm. if its the libs id expect labor to retain given the flow of the ind votes will probably go back to labor and weaker nat->lib flows but it could get interesting if the NAT or one of the Inds make the cut.

The reality is that most of the candidates are blow ins @john.

I would like to see what the major party preferences are in terms of the ind.

In terms of the Nat and lib running I think it is not a good thing for them, look what happened in Gilmore. The Nat Katrina hodgkinson when she ran there got about 12% and the lib lost votes but combined they were down.

Nats seem to be spending a lot of money on signs but they are no chance here, it’s not a Nat area at all.

Impossible to predict otherwise

@richard the way preferences work is you vote in order of preference. so a 1 nat 2 lab 3 lib. would of been 1 lab 2 lib without the nat. the reason for the drop in vote was the parachuting of Warren Mundine by scomo when the local branch had already preslected Grant Schulz who also ran as an ind. tbh i can understand why people protested about that. and obviously people chose to vote labor above liberal for that reason. warren mundine certainly wasnt as his “people” and i dont use that term in any disrespectful way are from the area but people didnt see it that way. warren mundine was also not as well known to conservative politics at this time. that is also why the nats chose to run in order to capture some of that protest vote as they dont usually contest Gilmore.

the nats have similarly chosen to contest Whitlam due to the lackluster candidate the libs preselected and will probably poll well in the SH portion of the seat. dont ever write someone off until the final vote. labors candidate is similarly controversial given they ignored local branch preselection and the nat executive pretty much chose a jobs for mates candidate of their own faction from outside the seat who was a former greens candidate.

in 2019 labor took a 45-55 left-right disadvantage and turned it into a 53-47 win. vote leakage from labor to the libs/nats is entirely possible to help them win

Richard, John, Elliot, Carol: Redistribution make it harder but Labor is campaigning very strongly here now. I have received 4 letterbox drops already in Shellharbour – unheard of. & 2 of these drops by hand I noticed -amazing in this day and age. (I’m retired so notice who puts what in my letterbox). Nothing from anybody else.
Branches seem quite happy now with Carol Berry (were cranky with Stephen Jones a month ago). She was pre-selected unopposed in the end. Hard not to like a Labor candidate in this day and age who has never worked full time for a union or the party head office or been a political staffer & is CEO of well respected local NGO in the disability sector which employs over a 1000 local staff. A bit like the old days when teachers dominated the Labor ranks in the country? Hardly a “blow in” as she lives in Mt Kembla about 10 minutes north of Dapto & has been an ALP rank & file member for 20 years.
The Liberal candidate is recognised as a failed recidivist candidate for any party who will have him – UAP, ON and now Liberals. The only vote he is sure of is the fat middle aged men who can’t get a root vote. (excuse my French)
Nationals ran at my suggestion. They want to reclaim their “lands” west & south of Moss Vale. The National Wendy Machin may outpoll Britton if she campaign hard as she is easily more impressive impressive & will benefit from the return of the anti Angus Taylor conservative vote in the redistributed areas. But she may just be restaking the National claim to these areas. The Liberals must rue not getting Mike Cains back in the race here as he is credible.
But in any event the leakage of preferences between national & liberals will be monumental either way.
The independent is unknown in the labor coastal heartlands but will draw votes away from Liberals & nationals in the highlands. But most of these will probably return?
Carol: Alex O’Brien may run anyway as he is a member of One Nation who get about 7.5% on the coast & usually run. I don’t share your view on his popularity as the last wind farm demo in Reddall Park got only about 80 attendees (half blow ins) despite a 25,000 local letterbox drop.
Looking OK for Labor now.

It’s easy to be preselected unopposed when the Nat executive steps in and certifies you and bars anyone else.

But I agree in lieu of a poor liberal candidate it’s looking like a labor marginal retain vs nats.

Having watched elections in this area for several decades Ben Britton is by far the worst candidate the Libs have stood. Spoke to him over the weekend and he had no idea about the local issues going on. So over the Libs selecting candidates who don’t live in the seats they are seeking to represent. I just hope his preferences help Katrina Hodgkinson get over the line. Honestly, the coalition should have given her a free run as she is a star candidate.

Jamie Dixon has announced he’s running for Greens again. There’s an interview in the Illawarra Mercury where he talked about the wind farms issue not being a huge factor into peoples votes at the election. I agree, it certainly isn’t going to be a major contributing factor to anyone voting away from Labor, anyone voting away is more likely to be doing so due to dissatisfaction toward the last governments term and a general swing away from Labor in the Whitlam area (to anyone else). No doubt there will still be quite a few just voting for “the other guy”, but I think there will be a number of people that will see Jamie Dixon as a familiar face and go for him. Just more splitting votes between the other guys, but I reckon still ALP win with a lower margin, Greens maybe gaining a few % more than last election??

@Rodger I have a couple of mates in the local branches.

From what my mate said, most branch members are still unhappy but are keeping it out of the media because they are concerned that Whitlam could become a marginal seat. He also said that there appears to be an unspoken agreement that the next candidate after Berry will be a local Whitlam candidate. I’ve got my thoughts on who it could be, but I’d just be speculating for the sake of it.

Berry is still perceived to be a “blow-in” because the branches don’t know her well. They have only known her for the last two months. She had no connection to the Whitlam branches before that. She might have been known in Cunningham branches, but she was a complete unknown to most people in the Whitlam ones. While she might live close to the electorate, she still doesn’t live there.

I wonder if she will move to the electorate.

Take this with a grain of salt. I’m not a party member so this is secondhand information from a couple of mates who are.

To your point on the ‘preselection’, an Illawarra Mercury article stated this:

“Party insiders have stated that “preselection process” basically means the National Executive will formally endorse her as the candidate when it meets on Thursday next week. Nominations for preselection – which can either be by the rank and file or by the national executive – opened on Wednesday and will run for seven days.

Other candidates are free to nominate though it was doubtful they had any chance to win. Whitlam is a left-controlled seat and party insiders say Ms Berry is that faction’s chosen candidate; any other local members from the left nominating would not stand a chance.

The same would go for any preselection candidates from the right fact of the party. In the Whitlam branch there is the belief the candidate will be chosen by what is known as an N40, because if Ms Berry stood in a rank-and-file preselection “she’d comfortably lose”.“

It is good that some of the branch members are getting behind her publicly. I’m still unhappy about a non-local running here and I’ll vote Independent in #1, Labor #2, but I don’t want Labor to lose. The alternative of Britton is much worse.

@marcus i dont know how theyll be putting in a new candidate if she wins the seat. Marcus i dont think Britton will even make the 2pp i think it will be a nat v lab seat.

@John I believe my mate was referring to after Berry retires in the future. From what he’s mentioned, there’s a preferred candidate within the branches, but they will accept Berry on the condition that she will endorse a successor from the Whitlam branches when she decides to step down. From what he said, there’s no way they’ll accept another outsider being parachuted in, especially with the upcoming members who seem to be getting mentored.

This mate is credible, but I can’t verify this myself, seeing as I’m not a member. I’ve thought about joining over the years, though.

On your point about Britton, I agree that he’s not a serious challenge. I think that there will still be a swing against Labor but it would’ve been worse with a better Liberal candidate. Hodgkinson will do well in the Southern Highlands and Britton will perform well in the Illawarra. I don’t think Labor will lose the seat anymore, but there will still be a serious swing.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Whitlam go marginal, or close to marginal.

@marcus a think a serious liberal candidate would have won. by the time she retires or loses it may be too late. this seat has become less safe over time and will be marginal at best this time around. Im not ready to call Whitlam at this moment because the 2 majors have candidate problems and the Nats are a dark horse and its hard to read howand where they will poll. I cant see the Ind making the 2cp as the coaltion vote will easily break into the 2pp. will be one of a few 3 way races to watch on election night. the seat will be marginal. atm im giving labor the edge on a 2-3% margin. but berry will be in trouble in 2028.

@Marcus W can you name the preferred candidate? Or, does anyone else here have any thoughts on who it might be?

Some Libs think this is the new Lindsay, former Labor heartland seat to fall. Nick Cater in The Oz says it’s full of ‘white flight’ people escaping Sydney.

@geoffery sources tell me the liberal party is an absolute mess within Whitlam. This is unlikely to be repeat of Lindsay because of two factors-
1- poor candidate
2- not a very active membership.
Maybe it might be the Nationals version of Lindsay. It will be an achievement if Mr Britton makes it to 2pp.

There are two parts to this seat the highlands where Labor polls slight minorities and Shellharbour suburbs which are solid Labor
This equals a Labor win

You can’t just assume the same results as last election. The dynamics of the seat have changed some of the SH was people voting against Angus Taylor. Wind farms are an issue and labor no longer benefit from.incumbency.

Are the “white flight” people LNP voters who are scared of brown people or inner city greens voters looking for more space?

@Bazza the former suggestion is one of the most ridiculous things I’ve seen on this site. “LNP voters” (the LNP only exists in Queensland by the way, it’s the Coalition everywhere else) are not scared of “brown people”.

@NP LNP generally refers to the coalition as its a shorter abbreviation. the only difference is that its one party in QLD and 2 seoereate parties who are in a formal coalition everywhere else but WA

Maybe they can just abbreviate to COAL to show their mutual interest

Shocking to see all the liberal signs down the Main Street of Bowral, moss vale and on the war memorial. Some signs were in the middle of the road and also attached to safety barriers the elderly grab onto when crossing the road. The person responsible should hang their head in shame. I haven’t looked today but I hope the authorities have removed them.

Just noting that Katrina Hodgkinson has pulled out of the race here. Makes me think the coalition was concerned about vote leakage https://x.com/kelfuller/status/1907579620410667137

interesting maybe the libs are in the hunt then?

John,
The National Party was never a chance in Whitlam as their vote only ever likely to be around 6%.

It is looking like The Age was correct about the wheels falling off Dutton’s campaign.

How are the wheels fall8ng off?

Dark Vader,
The headline is in yesterday’s Age newspaper (2nd April).

The wheels falling off was Dutton referring to the state of victoria.

Really – what is that about? Scrapping something no one wants (SRL) and funding something everyone wants (airport rail)?

MLV,
I was interested to read Dutton’s claim that a state coalition government, i.e., Queensland Government, was going to contribute $1.5 billion towards building his Melbourne Airport railway. As the story was published on April Fool’s Day, I had assumed it was an April Fool’s Day prank by The Age.

The success of the Liberal Party in Victorian state elections over the last three decades, clearly indicates how unpopular rail projects are in that state.
I look forward to Dutton promising to remove all the ‘skyrail’ that no one wanted and reinstating the level crossings that all Victorians loved, and of course, making Western Australia pay for it. After all, the Western Australian government is wasting billions on Metronet that no one wants.

Watson Watch, I think you must be confusing me for someone with no idea.

Skyrail was always going to successful, and the LCRP hugely popular (although the majority of the benefit was for road users). The metro tunnel will be hugely popular when opened (even if you could have got almost the same benefit at much less cost from punching through the Northern and Caulfield loops than a whole new tunnel), and if someone does the right thing and electrifies the RRL between Werribee and Sunshine then that will be a huge success too.

But if you are choosing between linking the city centre and the airport by rail, or spending what will end up being well over $100b on a train no one wants to catch because a rail blogger drew a line on google maps (that is pretty much what happened, I remember reading the blog with the blogger himself saying it was pie in the sky) then I know which one I want to be on, as I believe do most Melbournians.

Meninga runs, passes to hodgkinson and scores.

If the coalition decided to run one candidate, they would have been best served to slice the dill up, that is no Ben Brittan. Katrina hodgkinson would have done better by herself than brittan will do by himself. Something doesn’t quite fit with this decision. More to come?

This is a chance for the libs to dump their dud and pick a proper candidate otherwise this will see the independent quickly rise. Anyone see Nathaniel smith lately? Haven’t seen him backing brittan so watch him if any moves are made on brittan

MLV,
I am not confusing you with anyone.

The April Fools Day article claimed that Peter Dutton would scrap the Airport Rail Project via Sunshine and build a railway which only stops at the airport and CBD, i.e., Skybus on rails.

Still be far more popular/useful than the SRL.

Folks keep your Victoria stuff somewhere else, this is the whitlam chat.

Hearing a leak from the lib camp

Polling was
-lib 30
-alp 31
– ind 26
– nat 6
– other 7

Could explain Nat drop but poll early and only a small sample.

Game on