ALP 8.3%
Incumbent MP
Stephen Jones, since 2016. Previously member for Throsby 2010-2016.
Geography
Southern Illawarra and Southern Highlands of NSW. Whitlam covers the entirety of the Shellharbour council area along with southern parts of the City of Wollongong. These suburbs mostly surround Lake Illawarra, including Shellharbour, Dapto and Albion Park. It also covers the entire Wingecarribee council area in the Southern Highlands, including Bowral, Moss Vale and Mittagong.
Redistribution
Whitlam expanded to the west, taking in the remainder of the Southern Highlands including Exeter and Bundanoon. Whitlam lost the southern Wollongong suburbs of Berkeley, Cringila, Korongulla and Windang. These changes cut the Labor margin from 10.1% to 8.3%.
History
The seat of Whitlam was known as Throsby until 2016. Throsby was first created for the 1984 election, and has always been held by the ALP. It has always been won by the ALP by a large margin.
The seat was first won in 1984 by Colin Hollis. Hollis had previously been elected in Macarthur for one term in 1983. Hollis retired in 2001, and was succeeded by former ACTU President Jennie George. George held the seat from 2001 to 2010.
In 2010, Stephen Jones won the seat for the ALP upon Jennie George’s retirement. Jones has been re-elected four times.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Stephen Jones is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Whitlam is a reasonably safe Labor seat, alhough the redistribution slightly weakened Labor’s position.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Stephen Jones | Labor | 49,218 | 45.0 | -3.8 | 42.4 |
| Mike Cains | Liberal | 30,849 | 28.2 | +2.8 | 29.8 |
| Jamie Dixon | Greens | 11,779 | 10.8 | +1.6 | 10.4 |
| Colin Hughes | One Nation | 7,543 | 6.9 | +6.9 | 6.9 |
| Allan Wode | United Australia | 5,886 | 5.4 | -3.5 | 5.2 |
| Michael Wheeler | Liberal Democrats | 4,062 | 3.7 | +3.7 | 3.5 |
| Independent | 1.5 | ||||
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 5,637 | 4.9 | -2.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Stephen Jones | Labor | 65,683 | 60.1 | -0.8 | 58.3 |
| Mike Cains | Liberal | 43,654 | 39.9 | +0.8 | 41.7 |
Booths have been divided into three areas, along local government boundaries.
The ALP won large majorities of the two-party-preferred vote in Shellharbour (63.8%) and Wollongong (66.6%). The Liberal Party won 50.2% in Southern Highlands.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 11.1% in the Southern Highlands to 12.8% in Wollongong.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Shellharbour | 11.7 | 63.8 | 21,030 | 19.5 |
| Southern Highlands | 11.1 | 49.8 | 15,870 | 14.7 |
| Wollongong | 12.8 | 66.6 | 8,967 | 8.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.1 | 57.5 | 50,720 | 47.0 |
| Other votes | 11.2 | 57.3 | 11,388 | 10.5 |
Election results in Whitlam at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
I don’t know if I’d say this seat will flip; but it will be close and probably be one of the first to flip in 2028
The exchange of solid Labor areas for parts of the southern highlands has not helped Labor. The margin is still approx 8%. The issues such as off shore wind farms and the method of choosing the new candidate again are not helpful. But
Labor will still win this seat.
@mick I think so too but as nick said it will be close
I believe Katrina may gain more primary votes than the dud liberal ex UAP candidate. As a coalition voter I will be supporting her.
@marie I think you may be right on the money with that statement. What about your number 2 choice. Will you support the lib in a 2cp/2pp contest against anyone else.
If the Liberals had preselected a more conventional candidate who’s not a complete crazy dude with extreme views, Labor would be in way more danger.
Hodkingson and the Nats will do well and I wouldn’t be surprised if they outpolled the Liberals but they are still not going to struggle to get more cut through in the coastal areas of the seat in Dapto and Shellharbour where the National brand is basically non existent.
Labor retain with a big swing to either the Libs or Nats on 2PP.
It’s wildly optimistic for the Libs or Nats to gain this seat in 2025 or 2028 as seats like this will swing back to Labor hard if Dutton wins this election and the Libs try and sell off Medicare again or whatever their latest genius plan is.
I’m leaning towards a potential coalition win here. There are several factors in my prediction
1. The yougov poll showed 50.6% to Labor but that was is incredibly close with Stephen Jones as the incumbent. That well within the margin of error and I imagine labor and jones must have similar polling to announce a last minute retirement.
2. Green preferences split unusually high at about 80/20 rather then usual avg of 90/10.
3. Jones/alp 2pp and primary vote dropped despite a nation and statewide swing towards labor and no redistribution having occurred in the previous term. This redistribution has swung the pendulum further in the coalitions favour. Without an incumbent members personal vote.
4. Labor are gonna get hammered in Wingecarribee between the nats, liberals and independents all campaigning on Col issues especially given the new labor candidate is a former greens member. From outside the electorate.
I imagine further data from the Redbridge poll may indicate where this seat is going.
Liberals probably need to continue to make gains and be looking at a 52.5-47.5 national lead before this seat truly comes into play – I think if anything the polls might go the other way from now
Maxim maybe so but I don’t see labor’s position improves here. The liberals nationals and the Ind are gonna tag team labor in Wingecarribe. Bowral ppvc being the 3rd largest booth. Behind depot and warilla ppvcs in Wollongong and Shellharbour respectively. And if they can get some traction in Shellharbour and Wollongong labor are in trouble.
This is a seat where there has been no incentive in the past for the Libs to put in effort, money and resources particularly in the Illawarra. All of a sudden it could be in play – the effort alone could yield a few % – and Labor will have to put in more effort as well – that will divert effort from somewhere else.
The Liberals I imagine have weak party structure out here is all – saying they’ll ‘make an effort’ is not always translated to an actually decent on-the-ground campaign with a few months notice if that. The point about Labor resources is well made though – could impact their ability to campaign hard in Gilmore
@gilmore is lost labor could spend their entire treasury on that seat and still lose they were never gonna hold that seat long term and only won because of scomos mistake. 2022 corrected some of that against the grain. If the libs are polling close to winning the seat with an empty chair against a sitting member I can see this collapsing with so much going against labor now. Ow that they effectively have 2 candidates t running against effectively 2 greens it should be easy.
Gilmore not done and dusted.
Whitlam gain for libs or nats is wishful thinking.. alp retain
Worse than a Collingwood fan Mick, the Coalition have a better chance of picking up Whitlam than losing Gilmore
Maxim.
Are you saying it is more likely the coalition will win Whitlam than Gilmore?
I said no chance Whitlam for coalition
And the Gilmore is not a certain win for the libs(they may win)
No such thing as certain wins in politics and many of the commentors on this thread were proven pretty wrong in predicting Anna Watson’s loss in Shellharbour in 2023 when she won extremely comfortably against Chris Homer.
The Liberals are hated in the Illawarra for good reason. They have actively harmed this region for such a long time and even now, Dutton being against the Whyalla steelworks bailout will send shivers down the spine of many Illawarra voters at how readily the Libs are to throw away any support for the Port Kembla Steelworks which so much of the region still depends on.
Ben Britton has already been written off by members of his own party as an A grade fruitloop who is genuinely deranged. Peta Credlin bashed him on Sky News After Dark and said the Liberal Party needs to get real and not have a joke candidate like him in a winnable seat like Whitlam.
Labor hold by a margin of about 2% to 3%. Looking like how a Dutton Liberal Government seems like an almost certainty at this point, wouldn’t be surprised if this seats swings back hard super hard to Labor in 2028 just like it did in 2016 because Dutton cannot hold seats like this in the long term especially considering there’s been no changes to the right wing free market economic policy of the Liberal Party.
No they are unrelated events
So for example say I think the chance of the LNP winning Whitlam is 15%, at the same time I’d say the chance of Labor winning Gilmore is about 5%
@ Maxim I think there is a 0% chance of Labor winning Gilmore with a 40% chance of LNP winning Whitlam, with the Nat being the most likely candidate.
Mick Libs have a better chance of winning whitlam then Labor do in Gilmore Labor will Gilmore as surely as the sun will rise
Ben britton is proof the Libs need community preselection
@damo I’d say 50/50 in Whitlam and about 99% in Whitlam for coalition there’s never 0% chance
@dragons he was preselected I heard no one else put their hand up.for the libs. Both lib and labor candidates are duds. Nats could win this
@John it sounds like no one put their hands up because the local liberal party is in a parlous state and Britton probably saw this as an easy opportunity for him to have a crack at parliament. It’s unlikely the party would have considered him for a ‘safer seat’ as he lacks a profile and has quite a limited CV.
Though, I am glad the Nationals have come into the fold with a serious candidate, because Britton is completely out of his depth. Nor does he deserve to win as he is a joke and would end being a potential embarrassment. From what I have heard his views on the world are not very conventional.
@ABC23 could you point me in the direction of the piece on Sky News After Dark highlighting Britton’s limitations?
@natalia im in agreement with you on that. the liberals have been dealt a dream hand in Whitlam and have squandered it by picking a poor candidate from outside the area. If the liberals had their house in order in Whitlam and picked a good candidate they would have easily won Whitlam. i think the nats candidate would be better too so with any luck Britton can at very least prop her up with preferences.and tbh thats probably why the Nats are giving this a shot. I just wish the Libs did the same in Richmond…. given th e Ntas are going with the same failed candidate
If the Liberals had preselected a serious candidate like Mike Cains, Labor would’ve been in serious trouble this time around.
I reckon Berry will last a term or two, then Labor will preselect a local from the seat.
My guess is that Labor didn’t have a strong local candidate this time, similar to the circumstances around the last two parachutes they’ve done. The only potentials would’ve been Myers or Geddes, but Myers is too young and Geddes works for a Labor Right union. Possibly Petreski but I doubt Labor would go near him after the local government results.
My prediction is that Labor will retain by 2%. Berry will need to work very hard to grow the margin again. The Liberals will likely pick a stronger candidate for 2028. Britton is a joke.
It could be close with a 1,2 campaign from the coalition. My prediction nat vs alp.
@Darth I agree. I heard that the Nats only ran a candidate because of how poor Britton is.
Nats don’t usually do well in the Illawarra parts of the seat, but could poll strongly in the Southern Highlands despite their vote decreasing at most elections.
The swing in Whitlam would be a combination of an anti-Labor, anti-Jones, and possibly an anti-Berry/parachuted candidate vote. I know that a lot of people are still angry over the parachuting debacle.
I bet the Libs are now kicking themselves that they didn’t preselect a better candidate.
i expect he nats to finish in the top 2 tbh. if the coalition is able to win or come close in this seat and labor fails at a steel tarriff exemption and the libs were to win govt and get the exemption those steel workers might just vote liberal at the next election
and the fact the left claim this working class seat is probably only gonna keep hurting them
@john: Really doubt steel workers are going to start voting Liberal when Peter Dutton is coming in to gut the unions mate.
Coalition paying $9.50 on sportsbet
People for the most part dont know or care about the factional background of candidates. Just Labor liberal or nat.
Unless a candidate is extremely bad eg
Peggy Deeves in Warringah.
The local south Coast branch of unions
Nsw is left wing.
@AB23 yea and how are they gonna feel when they have no jobs cause of power prices
@stew sounds like a good deal
Ha give me $10 I will pay 10/1 if the liberals win here….
so if i bet $1000 you will cover the 10k?
No 1k to big
$10 …. $100 is more manageable
Odds shortened on sports bet since last comments. Surprised it’s not $1.60 to Albo given the MRP had this seat at 50.6% TPP to Labor
@bentley im glad i took the $9.50 then
Classic case of SB duffing the initial price, they also opened the Coalition at 9.5 in Solomon and then had to move into 2.5 in order to try and balance their books
16 to 1 for Banks for alp
On betting
They only need to profit overall
I would adopt profit plus market
Identify profit … then set the market
Accordingly.
Eg Banks if sure Coleman will win
Then offer for Alp 30/1
What bets a would you recommend placing Mick?
It is yr money not mine so be careful
I have an inbuilt bias cannot vote liberal
Or nat.
Alp banks
Alp Bullwinkel
Alp Aston
No big bets largest $5
Teal Bradfield
Pls be careful
A bet on Dyson in Wannon is looking pretty enticing given the revelations of how much his campaign has raised.
Interesting contrasting Dysons donations with Deb Leonards in Monash. He doesnt have that many big donations and lots of small. Without spreadsheeting , a lot of his smalls could be repeats and there are a lot of undisclosed. Some could be repeats as well. I recognised a few names in his list and they live outside the seat. I can see what the numbers are in a spreadsheet later.
Wannon
Calare
Monash
Inds roughies
@mick alp will lose banks bullwinkel and aston. bradifeld teal a chance though. libs will win monash and wannon. ind couldnt even make the 2cp last time lab vote would need to crash in Monash for them to make the 2cp or strategic voting even then cant see the libs losing. calare Gee has a chance but i think the Bathurst 1000 issue is gonna make it harder for him given he supported the Voice. if they cancel Bathurst 1000 over this aboriginal shit there will be riots across the country. Bathurst 1000 is important to voters across the aisle and nobody would forgie the govt for that.
@adam you can raise all the money in the world but you cant buy seat in parliament
in john’s betting market though the LNP are only paying $1.05 in every seat