Whitlam – Australia 2025

@marcus if your comfortable do you mind sharing your intention? And what do you think other normal labor voters will do?

@helen from what I heard he’s pretty the only one who put his hand up.

Maybe the nats should give this a run too

@Darth The coalition agreement likely doesn’t allow for three-cornered contest nor is this part of the world really traditional National Party territory. People change parties. However, someone who was a member of the UAP indicates to me they are either some sort of extremist or probably have poor judgment. Otherwise I would vote for the Libs. Yet, not whilst Britton is on the ballot paper. Poor quality candidate that doesn’t represent mainstream values.

Labor votes in the Albion Park area has declined significantly due to new developments around Tullimbar and Calderwood, bringing in more voters from Sydney, who appear to have Liberal values. The most recent Local Government Elections tell a story of voting patterns across the Shellharbour LGA, Ward A (Albion Park, Tullimbar, Calderwood) was a comfortable win for Independents Kellie Marsh & Mitch Ellis, with Kellie being the high profile well known deputy mayor, Mitch being a strong local candidate from Calderwood. Labor voter support in Ward A receded with Independents taking out over 68% of the vote. The other wards were the usual voting patterns with 50/50 ALP/anybody else votes, Wards B & C had over 50% IND vote, Ward D had less than 50% IND vote due to the IND vote being split with another IND candidate and exhausts.

The Mayoral vote was a really interesting one, Chris Homer (IND) picked up almost 60% of the primary First Pref vote, Paul Rankin (IND) picked up almost 10% and Rob Petreski (ALP) barely scraped over 30%. Granted Chris was the incumbent and now has experience as the Mayor, but the ALP are losing their following locally.

Heavy ALP voting areas I found were Flinders, Wt Warrigal, Barrack Heights and Albion Park Rail. Everywhere else, it was heavy Independent

As it stands now, I think more people in our area will vote away from ALP to anywhere else

@Darth someone mentioned earlier nobody in local libs put their hand up, Ben Britton told me has put his hand up to “give us another choice”. Choice is good, but preferably we need a local to represent us who lives here and understand the issues of the Illawarra, not just our national interests. This has been one of ALPs biggest issues in the past with the Illawarra, none of the representatives in recent times were residents of the area, only taking up residence after they won the election, then largely ignoring the issues of our area to focus on their national aspirations, while throwing an oversized novelty cheque at a local sports club every now and then. The Illawarra has remained largely unchanged for the past 50 years and has only had its organic growth due to poor representation. Im not sure if a NAT will run, I would have thought Paddy would be the frontrunner as a candidate there.

@Darth Vader I might vote independent and put Labor in 2. I’m really angry over the parachute. If the ALP doesn’t respect their own branches, do they respect the voters?

Carol Berry seems fine enough. I reckon she would’ve been a better candidate in Cunningham though.

What makes me angry is there were potential candidates in Whitlam but the party’s executive and Albo chose to overlook them.

If enough locals feel the same way as I do, Labor could be in real trouble. Other polling suggests this. Redbridge’s 2024 MPR Spring Report has Whitlam at around a 5% margin, and this was before Jones made his retirement announcement. The negative media attention certainly hasn’t helped Berry, and the branches appear hostile despite the disastrous press conference.

Whitlam being in the conversation as a potential Liberal gain with a mediocre, B-grade candidate might be the wake up call the ALP needs, but I’m not holding my breath.

Marcus, comments from commenters that have never been approved before need manual approval. You changed your email between your first and second comment, hence the second comment being held up. Should be fine now.

Marcus, if there turns out to be a decent independent in the mix, I think that putting 1 Independent, 2 Labor would be a safe and sensible way of conveying your response to the parachuting. That works against Dutton’s minion winning that seat. I would expect that Labor will scrape through by the skin of their teeth.

Thanks Ben, I alternate between a couple of emails but I’ll just stick to the one here. I’m not very good with technology… Appreciate your help mate and apologies for the confusion.

The difficulty that any independent has in Whitlam is that the electorate has these two distinct parts – the Southern Highlands and the coastal area. And they are so different on very level – social, demographic, economic, political outlook, geography. It would be hard to get an independent who can bridge that divide at least on a first try. You would also need two similar independents to do a preference swap – not dissimilar to when the Country Party used to run multiple candidates.

@geoff that’s not accurate the coalition agreement only prevents the other from contesting the seat when there is a sitting coalition member. It’s not a formal binding agreement but a handshake agreement. It exists so one doesn’t try and unseat the other thereby triggering retaliatory nominations in other seats and to prevent tensions. Also I imagine it’s there because there is no reason running against a seat you already hold. Also that’s not true because the Libs and Nats often contest the same seat when there is no sitting member. They are doing it right now in Bendigo and I imagine the nats will put someone up in Indi as well and the Nats ran in 2019 here.

So are you switching to the independent or Labor? (If you feel like sharing)

Given the candidate both major parties have put up I wouldn’t be surprised if they do well here.

Preferences and a good working relationship between the independents might be the way to go, it looks like Paddy has the Southern Highlands covered for support and is now doing the rounds to make himself known around Shellharbour. All that would be needed now is a strong Independent on the coastal areas to go up against the big parties and make themselves known to the highlands. Im actually wondering if Alex Obrien from Responsible Future Illawarra might be considering an entry as an independent. It really was a convenient opportunity that he and the anti-wind team were presented, to confront Albo on the lake foreshore and the subsequent interviews with media. If Alex runs independent on the coast and works with Paddy on their mutual views on the offshore zone, maybe that could work to their mutual benefit?

Labor could prevent Whitlam from falling to an independent or strong Liberal candidate in the future by preselecting a local to the seat with some name recognition, possibly from one of the more working-class areas like Dapto, etc. That candidate would also need to know how to appeal to the Southern Highlands.

I don’t believe wind farms are as big of an issue as some claim. This is anecdotal, but most people I talk to are pretty neutral on it. Wind farms could be more of an issue around the coastal areas, but not really around the Southern Highlands and western parts of the seat (Dapto, Albion Park, etc).

The real issue will be cost of living and housing affordability. I can see a Liberal swing in newly developing areas around West Dapto, Calderwood, Tullimbar, and new developments in Moss Vale.

I’ve found that also with the windfarms, talking to quite a few people on prepoll and on the booth at the last local election, for the overwhelming majority its not a big deal and doesn’t even come up in the conversation, the few that are against it are very passionate and vocal (as is anyone with an opposing view). Although it might not help in their campaign, it might help candidates to join forces.

I agree @Daniel. A common issue connecting two local independents (one in the Illawarra, one in the Southern Highlands) could spell trouble for Labor. If the seat is as close as predicted, it will likely come down to preferences. This is not ideal for Labor in a seat considered “traditional Labor heartland.”

@daniel I’m thinking the same. The independents could easily upset here given the lacklustre candidates. Another strategy would to do a deal with the liberals on preferences. Labor will finish in the top two and anti labor alliance could topple them. The greens however will preference labor over the liberals and Paddy but a left leaning independent could get green preferences. Labor will likely do a deal with greens here to get their preferences over Paddy and the coalition. A preference deal also won’t harm them much due to the close nature of the seat. Because council elections have nothing to do with it. Not talking about it doesn’t make it a non issue there are silent voters who say or don’t say one thing but will vote another.

@marcus unfortunately it’s a factional thing the left claim this seat and they have the numbers on the national executive along with the PM. I think the closeness of the election drove them to intervening as local branch selection can take time and reduces the amount of time they have to get the candidate out there. I also believe Stephen Jones was pushed and made it look like he jumped because he was in danger of losing the seat. As Justine Elliot in Richmond his days were numbered if he didn’t lose this time he certainly would have in 2028. Labor probably had similar polling to yougov. It would be exceptionally hard for labor to appeal to country and regional Australia in the same way it is for the nats. This is one advantage the libs have over them these days. This is why they will likely win Bullwinkel in WA. Wind farms are clearly an issue in the coastal regions there were literally people heckling Albo at the candidate announcement. Unfortunately the southern highlands are pretty solid for the liberals and the problems in the coastal region for labor is this is where they rely on voter support to hold the seat. The fact they have a former greens candidate who will be pushing it and against things like steel manufacturing even if not publicly it wouldn’t be too hard for the liberals to create the appearance of it and besides voters aren’t stupid they know what the greens stand for. I can bet you anything the libs will be running ads on her history as a green and tying her to the greens more than labor. Cost of Living and offshore wind play to the liberals advantage. Steel workers are also the type of voters the libs are targeting this election.

That should read city and regional

The left / right split here was 56-44 in 2022 but obviously some of that leaked to labor. The independents would need to capture either the greens or onp/centre right vote or some of both to push the liberals out.if the independents can make the 2cp they’d have a good shot at winning. But I doubt at this point they will. Libs and labor both likely make it to 2pp on primaries alone.

@John If Labor was really worried about losing the seat, then why on earth would they pick a former Green as their candidate? Surely they must have thought about how bad that looks to voters. To me, it feels like a captain’s pick from Jones and Albo, just for a mate.

I don’t think Albo or Jones understand how unpopular this move is turning out to be.

Jones was already struggling with his vote, and then they go ahead and preselect a former Green who doesn’t even live in the electorate to replace him? That means the last three Labor candidates for Whitlam/Throsby have all been outsiders. Two from Cunningham and one from Melbourne.

And that’s what’s got me angry. I’ve been a Labor voter my whole life, and even I feel like they’re taking us for granted. I can see why the branches would be upset too. It’s one of the main reasons I never joined the party in the first place.

I hope that I’m wrong on this. Next time, it should be a local candidate and maybe Labor’s chances will improve.

@marcus the problem is I believe he was on track to lose the seat so got pushed otherwise he would have resigned earlier. But then factional politics come in to play afterwards one side of politics claims the seat and has the numbers to enforce their will and they have no choice but to put them in. The person with the best connections then gets it. As you said is this the best they can do. I had a similar issue in Indi Sophie Mira Bella was not the best person but was parachuted into a safe seat. I’m glad she’s gone tbh but they should have brought in a better candidate and moved her back to Melbourne. And surely not run her again in 2016 I wasn’t a member in 2016 but if I was I would have protested against her. I voted for the nats at that election out of protest. If she wins she’s stuck there, if she loses chances are the libs are in govt and should change the off shore wind and steel policies and likely continue to hold the seat. In 2013 despite sweeping to power nationally they lost Indi. Granted the opposition had a better candidate but also had a higher margin to overcome. Whitlam has a much smaller margin and we are dealing with both having poor candidates. It’s likely to be a race to the bottom on whose candidate people prefer least. Though things like Col, steel and offshore wind may tip it to the libs. And have the benefit of not being the incumbent govt. either way labor likely have problems in 2028 and lose unless the candidate and or lib govt flops

@John, You make a fair point. It seems to be the candidate with the best connections to head office and/or National Executive. It’s definitely not the person with the best connections at the local branch level, since it looks like many of the ALP branch members had never even heard of Carol Berry until recently. I could be wrong, but that’s what was widely reported in the media.

The swing was already expected to be rough before Jones’s retirement announcement, but with this candidate, I can’t help but feel the shift will be even more significant.

My gut tells me that Labor will just barely hold onto the seat this time around, but it will be close. It’s going to be a marginal seat. How Berry performs as an MP will play a big role, but there’s a real chance Labor could lose it in 2028. I wouldn’t be shocked if the seat swings to the Liberals for a term, only for it to eventually return to Labor with a solid, well-known local candidate who has good community connections. Whoever it is would have to work very hard to win the seat back and rebuild the margin.

It’s still interesting to me that Whitlam is one of the hot topics on Tally Room. I was just on the Gilmore thread, which happens to be my local seat, and there’s a whole lot less chatter there.

Whitlam being a hot topic on Tally Room should be a huge warning sign to Labor.

@electoral I agree I was saying labor retain with jones but now I’m saying close and a tossup.if the libs are able to form govt and undo the mess labor have created they may be able to hold it. If they remain in opposition holding should be relatively easy. Labor will have problems if they hold the seat and are in governs,not. There was until a while ago unless your a die hard Labor fan like mick Constance is basically already picking an office in parliament. It’s gonna be a question of his margin.. I’m not sure where your based in Whitlam but there is a sky news pub test next Monday. I’m assuming cnadidates will be there not sure if the lefties will show up as they didn’t in Dunkley

Gilmore I mean

I am in full agreement with you, @Marcus. I, too, shall be voting independently and placing Labor second, or possibly even third, after the Greens.

Although I now reside in Dapto, I am from Bowral and have spent the greater part of my life within this electorate—save for a brief ‘sojourn’ in the Northern Territory during the 1990s.

For many years, I have cast my vote for Labor, consistently since the early 2000s. However, I can no longer bring myself to place them as my number one preference federally. The decision to parachute in a former Greens candidate and national secretary, with no genuine connection to Whitlam, feels not only out of touch, but an insult to the residents of this seat. Has anyone clarified whether she intends to relocate here, should she secure the seat? I have yet to find any media reports confirming or refuting this.

This entire situation speaks volumes about the disregard Stephen Jones and the Prime Minister have shown for this electorate. While I have no doubt that Stephen Jones had a role in this decision, I suspect he remains indifferent, given that his own ascent to office occurred in much the same manner.

Furthermore, Albanese’s refusal to allow a rank-and-file preselection this past year raises concerns. It would not surprise me in the least if this delay were intentional—an attempt to prevent a fair vote and justify the lack of time for such a process. This is mere speculation on my part, of course, but it would not astonish me in the slightest.

While I will never support the Liberal Party, I cannot, in good conscience, place Labor at the top of my ballot while they continue to promote a non-local candidate. Many of my non-political acquaintances share my sentiments.

As for the state of the seat itself, I largely concur with the prevailing views here. It is likely to become marginal and could very well be lost in 2028. A strong local candidate is paramount, and I sincerely hope one is being cultivated. For all my frustration, I would never wish for this seat to fall into Liberal hands.

This thread has been busy since I last checked in. I’m curious if anyone in Labor or the Liberals actually reads these comments, especially in Whitlam. I think Labor needs to start treating Whitlam like a marginal seat and put some real resources into holding onto it. If they stay complacent, they could very well lose it.

@Daniel I missed your comment earlier about the Shellharbour results. I reckon they’re important but probably not a good indicator of what’s going to happen on a state or federal level. A big reason Labor struggled in the mayoral election is because:

1. Homer had the advantage of incumbency.
2. The quality of the Labor candidate.

I’m still trying to figure out what went wrong in Ward A, so I won’t jump to conclusions until I’ve had a chance to look at more details.

It’ll be interesting to see how all this plays out in a federal campaign for Labor, and whether I’m proven wrong on the local government results and their relevance.

This is an example of hopes..yes if this candidate does a deal with that candidate. Then either they or the libs will Win if not now then in 2028. the Labor vote in the Illawarra will exceed the anti Labor vote in the Southern highlands this equals a Labor win

The Liberals need to win some of the Illawarra booths to win here. A strong Highlands vote cannot outweigh the more populated and more denser Shellharbour area. I’d have my money on Shell Cove Public, Shellharbour Public, Tullimbar Public, and maybe one of the Albion Park booths flipping Liberal.

I’d expect coastal areas to swing harder because of the windfarm issue, albeit not too strong of an issue, however in 2023 Shellharbour, Chris Homer (anti-windfarm) did well in the coastal booths like Warilla SLSC, Warilla High, and the aforementioned Shellharbour + Shell Coves areas. In fact Warilla SLSC had a better result for Homer than the Shell Cove booths.

The biggest concern I had with this seat is that given how abruptly Jones announced his retirement I fully expected Labor to be late with announcing a candidate but having one literally ready to go seemed to have snuffed that issue out as it gives the new candidate plenty of time to campaign. I’m not surprised at the lack of local branch votes as it seems Albanese has been intent on directly selecting new candidates instead of the usual rank-and-file vote which is strange but also becoming increasingly common.

Sure there will be swings along the coast where the wind farms areas as well as maybe the Southern Highlands but I still think it will be a marginal Labor hold in the same veins as electorates like Gorton.

The Ward A result was predictable, support for the Labor candidate wasn’t very strong to begin with and was only dropping. In 2021 the results were close (just 4 votes won ALP the 2nd seat), the iVote failure triggered a by-election, the vote was then split with Marianne Saliba entering the Ward A contest as an IND and her prefs flowing to ALP, in 2024 incumbent ALP clr Maree Duffy-Moon lost even more community support to Kellie Marsh and her running mate Mitch Ellis.

Kathleen thanks for your insight it’s good to hear from people in the seat about what’s happening on the ground. Mick the Illawarra is where labor is gonna lose votes for labor they may win the seat but it will be marginal and can no longer be relied upon as staying as a safe labor seat if they win this seat this time it makes it easier for the libs to win it next time.

The Nats have got their eye on this one. Stand by: Katrina Hodgkinson.

Regarding Stephen Jones’s retirement, I’m uncertain whether or not he was forced out or saw dire polling and thought it’s time for someone else. It could be the same with Paul Fletcher.

There is a brewing populist, anti-establishment vote as seen in the primary votes for One Nation and UAP last election. This is trending in the rust belt and peri-urban areas. This is less so the case in the Southern Highlands.

The Labor vote is quite low considering it’s formerly Labor heartland and the state seat of Shellharbour has a much higher Labor vote. Wollondilly is the other main state seat which is held by an independent.

@Harwinian – I would argue the Nationals really shouldn’t contest here:

1. This is a heavily-urbanised electorate. Shellharbour very obviously and the National vote would be non-existent, but even in the Highlands there is quite a lot of population growth. There is new developments in Moss Vale, Mittagong and Bowral, which will improve the LIB/ALP vote but drag the NAT vote down (if they contest). The Nationals nowadays are genuinely only appealing in rural areas: Bowral and Mittagong (the heartland of the Highlands) is not reciprocating.

The only towns I could see with a good NAT result would be the rural areas, though they wouldn’t do much to the final vote. In 2016, the last time both Coalition parties contested Whitlam, the Nationals polled only 6%. It will only get worse for them due to demographic changes.

2. In a political aspect, the Nationals (if they poll well) could actually cause a lot of vote leakage. The recent opinion polling is really good for the Liberals, and I personally presume will get better as it’s likely they will ramp up efforts here. The Nationals though could draw away critical votes the Liberals need to pull off the win. Every vote counts, as they say.

3. Furthermore, on the topic of the Nationals. One, they don’t contest Keira, Shellharbour, Wollondilly, Kiama, or Goulburn, the overlapping state electorates with Whitlam. Second, Katrina Hodgkinson’s seat of Burrinjuck (now abolished) doesn’t overlap. She is not a local.

I have a vague idea that Katrina Hodgkinson originally came from the Southern Highlands so Whitlam would make some sense. What if, hypothetically she jumped ship to the Libs and they pushed their less than ideal candidate out of the way? Discussion point only.

I’ve been thinking regularly of a group of outer suburban Labor seats that have always been Labor held but have gradually been shrinking in margins over recent years. With all the focus on Whitlam I wondered if it should be in that category but when you examine the chart in this guide you can see that any decline in margin right up until now was the product of redistributions, not loss of support. It does look like Whitlam will have an above-average swing in 2025 but it’s too early to make judgements about Labor particularly losing ground here over any longer time frame. If they can hold on to the seat for all we’ll know the new MP will get a big boost in 2028.

If I remember rightly she was the
State mp for Cootamundra. Don’t think she will contest here

This will be close probably around 2-3% max. Maybe closer.