To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
I’m predicting a higher then average swing here due to the new territory being hostile to labor and the sitting member in particular, the off shore wind issue and a less then satisfactory incumbent. I’m saying a 5% swing. That puts it in dangerous territory of being lost In 2028 especially if labor fall into minority. A labor greens independent teal govt would likely see it lost in 2028.
I really would like an expansion of parliament there is not much in common between the Southern Highlands and Illawara. Thoresby used to be purely Illawara seat. The two areas belong in seperate electorates but as NSW keeps losing seats community of interest is lost
@nimalan there is a transport link between moss vale and Wollongong.
@ Darth Vader
Yes but culturally quite different. The Illawara is quite an industrial area
The combination of new boundaries and demographic change make this seat winnable for the Libs. Agree with DV that 2025 will.be a bit of a stretch but possibly 2028.
When Throsby was created, it was an Illawarra / Southern Highlands seat.
Coal mining is a community of interest across both areas.
Definitely at risk of being lost this election. Jones should be careful.
I actually live in the seat. In my view, this is a seat that is a natural Labor seat but one that would basically only be competitive under Dutton as Liberal leader in the current circumstances. A normal Liberal leader wouldn’t be competitive.
2016, with Turnbull as Prime Minister, this seat swung massively to Labor, well above the national average. It is a seat that is pretty socioeconomically disadvantaged and one that will always have a natural Labor vote compared to seats like Lindsay etc. 2019 swings were similar to Western Sydney as it’s similar demographics.
2022, despite what commentors are saying, was a very weak result all round for the Labor Party in the Illawarra. Alison Byrnes in Cunningham had a 7% swing against her on primaries, Fiona Phillips in Gilmore came within a whisper of losing to Andrew Constance and Stephen Jones’s vote in the Illawarra section of Whitlam went down whilst going up in the Southern Highlands.
Whitlam should be compared to seats like Blaxland, Werriwa and Greenway. Overwhelming, the seat is becoming more multicultural due to a large influx of new homeowners from South Western Sydney which potentially can improve Labor’s hold on the seat. However, we saw the increase in the vote amongst POC Americans for Trump at the 2024 US presidential election so it’s extremely hard to tell.
Labor needs to be very careful not to take this seat for granted and do another N40 like they did for Stephen Jones and Jennie George. To keep holding the Libs off, Labor needs a strong local candidate. It is a seat that is becoming increasingly wary and distrustful of Labor and can you blame voters after over 20 years of parachuted candidates?
Stephen Jones is more popular in this electorate then other commenters here give him credit for however the Illawarra is continuing to swing across the board against Labor. In terms of council results, Labor performed strongly in Wollongong Ward 3 and it’s likely going to be the Dapto part of the seat that remains the strongest for Labor across the board. However, Labor’s continuing woes in Shellharbour Council will plague Labor further.
I’ll give my thoughts here: Whitlam will most certainly be in play in the next federal election. Stephen Jones IMO is a pretty crap MP who seems to toe the party line, especially on the wind farms proposed off the Illawarra. Add on to the fact this electorate is becoming more ‘Middle Australia’, with a lot of new families especially in Shell Cove, Albion Park and Bowral, and the redistribution taking out a lot of the suburbs along Lake Illawarra (very Labor voting), and replacing it with some Liberal booths from Hume.
As for politics in the area, it’s a mix. Shellharbour at the state level swung I think 10% to Labor on the 2PP, and the independent candidate there, Chris Homer, got only about a 1% swing to him despite a lot of hype around him. Wollondilly (which takes in some towns in the west of Whitlam), was won by a teal, but the Liberals still won most booths in the notional 2PP against Labor. They should be shored up for them in 2025.
Council results however tell a stark contrast. Wingecarribee elected a large independent bloc, but Shellharbour, the Labor primary dropped 17%, and Chris Homer was re-elected easily. He could be a spanner in the works in 2025 if he ran for Whitlam, and could definitely determine a Liberal gain or a Labor retain.
Overall, I predict Labor to have a swing against it, and I expect the Liberals to win the Shell Cove booth, which they marginally lost in 2022. But with these factors mentioned, it’s not impossible for a shock Liberal gain. By 2028, this seat (if Labor holds) should be very much fertile for the Liberals.
@ James
I agree with you that the newer estates such as Shell Cove and Calderwood are middle Australia and is the Southern Highlands but areas like Dapto/Wollongong Council parts are very low SES also parts of Shellharbour like Warilla are still low SES me.
i think the libs will fall just short in 2025. 2028 Jones should be really concerned.
Ben Brittam is the liberal candidate for Whitlam
@John – a little concerned as he isn’t a local to the area. He contested Cunningham for the UAP in 2022, and was a candidate for Liberal preselection in the Cook by-election.
Admittedly the Liberal branches in the Illawarra lack strong quality compared to better branches but I do think he’ll get a swing here and will win the Shell Cove Public booth (the most Liberal booth in Shellharbour City Council)
As for results, a few factors (Stephen Jones not being popular, wind farm, Labor collapse in Shellharbour) do mean a swing to the Liberals is most certainly on but I will admit if the factors fall into place, a Liberal gain actually is possible.
Alp retain
Poor quality Liberal candidate who’s been parachuted in from the Sutherland Shire, Liberals have prevented themselves from potentially winning the seat in 2028.
@james i also think its possible but im not sure they will get enough this time around however as in the McEwen thread if liberals make significant inroads this year and dont win government and Jones is still the candidate in 2028 hes a gonner. in regards to Brittam where is he from? Cunningham and Whitlam overlap technically. Simon Kennedy also was from outside the area having contested Bennelong in the 2022 election.
@john There’s a big difference between here and Cook, especially given that Labor did not even contest that by election
@Bruce – agree with your sentiment (to a large extent). As AD23 commented, this is a seat that has usually been safe Labor but demographic changes are making it more winnable for the Liberals, especially under Dutton. I will admit from experience the Liberal branches in the Illawarra are usually quite weak due to the fact they’ve never really had any successes. But yeah I think Britton’s preselection may have cost the Liberals a chance of pulling off an upset (which would be surprising in the first place but can be backed up).