Whitlam – Australia 2025

I’m predicting a higher then average swing here due to the new territory being hostile to labor and the sitting member in particular, the off shore wind issue and a less then satisfactory incumbent. I’m saying a 5% swing. That puts it in dangerous territory of being lost In 2028 especially if labor fall into minority. A labor greens independent teal govt would likely see it lost in 2028.

I really would like an expansion of parliament there is not much in common between the Southern Highlands and Illawara. Thoresby used to be purely Illawara seat. The two areas belong in seperate electorates but as NSW keeps losing seats community of interest is lost

@nimalan there is a transport link between moss vale and Wollongong.

@ Darth Vader
Yes but culturally quite different. The Illawara is quite an industrial area

The combination of new boundaries and demographic change make this seat winnable for the Libs. Agree with DV that 2025 will.be a bit of a stretch but possibly 2028.

When Throsby was created, it was an Illawarra / Southern Highlands seat.
Coal mining is a community of interest across both areas.

Definitely at risk of being lost this election. Jones should be careful.

I actually live in the seat. In my view, this is a seat that is a natural Labor seat but one that would basically only be competitive under Dutton as Liberal leader in the current circumstances. A normal Liberal leader wouldn’t be competitive.

2016, with Turnbull as Prime Minister, this seat swung massively to Labor, well above the national average. It is a seat that is pretty socioeconomically disadvantaged and one that will always have a natural Labor vote compared to seats like Lindsay etc. 2019 swings were similar to Western Sydney as it’s similar demographics.

2022, despite what commentors are saying, was a very weak result all round for the Labor Party in the Illawarra. Alison Byrnes in Cunningham had a 7% swing against her on primaries, Fiona Phillips in Gilmore came within a whisper of losing to Andrew Constance and Stephen Jones’s vote in the Illawarra section of Whitlam went down whilst going up in the Southern Highlands.

Whitlam should be compared to seats like Blaxland, Werriwa and Greenway. Overwhelming, the seat is becoming more multicultural due to a large influx of new homeowners from South Western Sydney which potentially can improve Labor’s hold on the seat. However, we saw the increase in the vote amongst POC Americans for Trump at the 2024 US presidential election so it’s extremely hard to tell.

Labor needs to be very careful not to take this seat for granted and do another N40 like they did for Stephen Jones and Jennie George. To keep holding the Libs off, Labor needs a strong local candidate. It is a seat that is becoming increasingly wary and distrustful of Labor and can you blame voters after over 20 years of parachuted candidates?

Stephen Jones is more popular in this electorate then other commenters here give him credit for however the Illawarra is continuing to swing across the board against Labor. In terms of council results, Labor performed strongly in Wollongong Ward 3 and it’s likely going to be the Dapto part of the seat that remains the strongest for Labor across the board. However, Labor’s continuing woes in Shellharbour Council will plague Labor further.

I’ll give my thoughts here: Whitlam will most certainly be in play in the next federal election. Stephen Jones IMO is a pretty crap MP who seems to toe the party line, especially on the wind farms proposed off the Illawarra. Add on to the fact this electorate is becoming more ‘Middle Australia’, with a lot of new families especially in Shell Cove, Albion Park and Bowral, and the redistribution taking out a lot of the suburbs along Lake Illawarra (very Labor voting), and replacing it with some Liberal booths from Hume.

As for politics in the area, it’s a mix. Shellharbour at the state level swung I think 10% to Labor on the 2PP, and the independent candidate there, Chris Homer, got only about a 1% swing to him despite a lot of hype around him. Wollondilly (which takes in some towns in the west of Whitlam), was won by a teal, but the Liberals still won most booths in the notional 2PP against Labor. They should be shored up for them in 2025.

Council results however tell a stark contrast. Wingecarribee elected a large independent bloc, but Shellharbour, the Labor primary dropped 17%, and Chris Homer was re-elected easily. He could be a spanner in the works in 2025 if he ran for Whitlam, and could definitely determine a Liberal gain or a Labor retain.

Overall, I predict Labor to have a swing against it, and I expect the Liberals to win the Shell Cove booth, which they marginally lost in 2022. But with these factors mentioned, it’s not impossible for a shock Liberal gain. By 2028, this seat (if Labor holds) should be very much fertile for the Liberals.

@ James
I agree with you that the newer estates such as Shell Cove and Calderwood are middle Australia and is the Southern Highlands but areas like Dapto/Wollongong Council parts are very low SES also parts of Shellharbour like Warilla are still low SES me.

i think the libs will fall just short in 2025. 2028 Jones should be really concerned.

Ben Brittam is the liberal candidate for Whitlam

@John – a little concerned as he isn’t a local to the area. He contested Cunningham for the UAP in 2022, and was a candidate for Liberal preselection in the Cook by-election.

Admittedly the Liberal branches in the Illawarra lack strong quality compared to better branches but I do think he’ll get a swing here and will win the Shell Cove Public booth (the most Liberal booth in Shellharbour City Council)

As for results, a few factors (Stephen Jones not being popular, wind farm, Labor collapse in Shellharbour) do mean a swing to the Liberals is most certainly on but I will admit if the factors fall into place, a Liberal gain actually is possible.

Alp retain

Poor quality Liberal candidate who’s been parachuted in from the Sutherland Shire, Liberals have prevented themselves from potentially winning the seat in 2028.

@james i also think its possible but im not sure they will get enough this time around however as in the McEwen thread if liberals make significant inroads this year and dont win government and Jones is still the candidate in 2028 hes a gonner. in regards to Brittam where is he from? Cunningham and Whitlam overlap technically. Simon Kennedy also was from outside the area having contested Bennelong in the 2022 election.

@john There’s a big difference between here and Cook, especially given that Labor did not even contest that by election

@Bruce – agree with your sentiment (to a large extent). As AD23 commented, this is a seat that has usually been safe Labor but demographic changes are making it more winnable for the Liberals, especially under Dutton. I will admit from experience the Liberal branches in the Illawarra are usually quite weak due to the fact they’ve never really had any successes. But yeah I think Britton’s preselection may have cost the Liberals a chance of pulling off an upset (which would be surprising in the first place but can be backed up).

I am a local party member, not using my real identify as I could face expulsion saying this. Essentially, no other members wanted to stand for the seat. Hence, we have ended up with a b-grade candidate. If the party gets a swing it will be a vote against Jones, not a vote for Britton. From what I know about Ben he is a perennial candidate who has tried his hand at numerous seats and failed. His campaign for Cunningham with the UAP was a flop and his attempt at preselection for Cook failed to hit the mark too, apparently, he only gained four votes out of 300 or so delegates. Ben also sought selection for Kiama and was reportedly knocked back by HQ. The chap is having a go. Though, not parliamentary material. Probably should stick to cleaning toilets and let the adults do the important work.

I would make this observation-seats named after former prime minister have a nasty habit of electing an MP from the opposing side eg Barton,Deakin,Fisher,McEwen,Curtin,Holt,Gorton and McMahon.

@Mathew – I used to be a member of the Liberals around Shellharbour. I see your comment as very honourable and brave, and I 100% agree with it. Britton is a seat shopper and likely won’t win, though time will tell of course to see if Jones becomes more unpopular, and to see if Britton can put together a strong campaign.

The boundaries determine this seat
The alp majority.in Shellharbour exceeds the liberal margin in most other places.
Matt: as long as your are a member of the alp you should not dump publicly on the mp.

@mick i believe he is a liberal member

@sabena dont forget Fraser, Bruce. Also Deakin has mostly elected members of his party

John,
Yes I forgot Bruce.And as to Fraser,there was the ACT seat named after Allan Fraser the former ACT member.The present seat of Fraser was created in 2019 and elected a Labor member.

@ john I see misunderstood

@sabena yes they renamed the act seat of fraser so they could se it in vic honour malcolm fraser

“The boundaries determine this seat”

Pretty sure the votes of the people within the boundaries determine who takes the seat, I have seen time and time again that certain Labor supporters (not just the ones on this and other such sites) are apparently unable to sense the change working against them in seats they have held for a long time. Whitlam is probably not genuinely in play this time but statements that simply assume people will continue to vote as they always have in a time of political upheaval and realignment is just crazy to me.

Labor are a good chance to hang onto government but they are going to take some serious haircuts and will suddenly have a lot of new marginals where the trends are working heavily against them going into 2028.

@maxim agreed i dont think labor is in enough truble to lose this seat this time around and agree they will take some haircuts in alot of seats including this one. and think that after the polls tighten especially given the latest inflation data and the possibility of a rate cut in february labor will be able to hna on to govt albeit in minority. all the seats i mentioned in the election guide are gonna be under serious threat in 2028 if they dont fall thi year. labors margin will be crpped in whitlam due to several issues but will be saved in part because of the ;iberal choice but i dont feel no matter who they put up they would of won hre this time aroaund but stranger things have happened

Interesting, Stephen Jones just announced his retirement. I wonder who will replace

Stephen jones has reportedly announced his retirement ahead of the upcoming election this could be because of poor polling and the seat being at risk and labor is hoping to introduce a new face in order to save teh game here

the timing just after albanese just reshuffled his cabinet has got to be interesting so will now need to assign someone to the assistnat tresurer role

This gives Labor an opportunity to preselect a more Southern Highlands friendly candidate that could survive a redistribution creating something like the pre redistribution Hume.

I think it will come out of the 2025 election as an ALP held marginal seat but not necessarily one the Liberals could win in 2028.

@blue jones is from the left faction and likely the left faction will still want this seat and given the closeness of the election ad the fact hes also of the left Albo will likely install another left faction memeber here.

Rumours have it that the ALP will parachute a candidate in, potentially Katelin Mcinerney who was the candidate for Kiama at the 2023 state election however she has defected from the Right to the Left. The Left have the numbers on National Exec so it will likely be a Left candidate.

Local names who are potential candidates are former adviser to Stephen Jones Simon Zulian, Wollongong Councillor and Whitlam Labor FEC Secretary Tiana Myers, Shellharbour Councillor Lou Stefanovski and Deputy Lord Mayor of Wollongong Linda Campbell.

Any non local candidate is going to struggle in this seat and I wouldn’t be surprised if a Southern Higlands candidate is preselected considering how increasingly important that seat is.

@ab47 any candidate will be from the woolongong area and if they parachute a candidate in they will run the risk of losing the seat. given the jones was from the left and so is albo and that they control the votes in the exec the left will get their way here. id expect this will be a captains pick by albo too. any candidate will likely come from Woolongong given how the labor arty machine works and how the umbers will be tilted that way

adn tbh i think he was only driving the labor vote into the ground anyway and was gonna lose Whitlam either at this election or the next anyway. the coalition could still win here amid good nationwide polling

I’d say the Wollongong and Shellharbour parts are more important to Labor.

Having a candidate from there will test Labor’s ability to reconnect or minimise the slide in support amongst the old class and rust belt. It’s also more populated than the Southern Highlands.

i think the libs are gonna get real close here this time around setting themselves up for a good shot in 2028. if the labor candidate is as lame duck as stephen jones a good liberal pick in 2028 could help them win. the southern highlands parts will help the coalition in this regard.

Actually do think the seat might be a tossup between Labor actually not doing as bad as predicted (Jones being gone could mean a good candidate preselected who could hold the seat with a lower margin but not too low), or considering the low-profile of the other candidates it could result in a bigger swing to the Liberals.

Still tipping Labor retain but candidate choice could be vital in what happens here.

Candidates in preselection*

@AB47 Given that list of candidates for Labor – I’d say they have slim pickings locally. Wouldn’t be surprised if they put up another faceless and spineless union rep in this ‘safe seat’ and continue to take advantage of the community.
Also important to note this is a not a ‘Wollongong’ seat. Labor parachuting someone from the north would be a terrible idea.

the alp vote in the Highlands area is better than I expected. Why? Personal vote? Concerted campaign? Liberals not serious. ?

Minus the Illawarra area this seat would be marginal to fairly safe liberal. The average of 60% plus in the Illawarra area determines this seat.

@mick different candidate from Hume which most of the new parts of the Highlands has come from also the Ind prbably skewed that result and it was a high tide election in which labor swept to power. also depends which results your looking at. was it based off 2019 or 2022 results? a left factoin candidate from woolongon/shellharbour isnt gonna poll as well as someone from gunning in the southern highlands.

Reports above suggest the Liberal candidate is a bit of a dud. Would they reopen preselection now to find a winnable candidate?

Apparently he wa she only one to put his hand up essentially. Jones in my opinion was one too and was basically a parachute into a safe seat and got it / through on factional grounds now that the seat is more marginal he May have been forced out to shore up the seat wouldn’t be surprised if he gets some good govt gig if labor is reelected. The nats might want to think about putting a candidate up too.

It/throsby

@DV – to my knowledge, Jones was born in Wollongong, so a parachute might be a little overstepping. Admittedly he had a lot of union/factional connections, similar to the previous member for Whitlam’s predecessor (Jennie George).

As for the Nationals running, would see it as a little odd considering how this isn’t really prime National territory. Even the overlapping state electorates, none of them are contested or held by the Nationals.