ALP 8.3%
Incumbent MP
Stephen Jones, since 2016. Previously member for Throsby 2010-2016.
Geography
Southern Illawarra and Southern Highlands of NSW. Whitlam covers the entirety of the Shellharbour council area along with southern parts of the City of Wollongong. These suburbs mostly surround Lake Illawarra, including Shellharbour, Dapto and Albion Park. It also covers the entire Wingecarribee council area in the Southern Highlands, including Bowral, Moss Vale and Mittagong.
Redistribution
Whitlam expanded to the west, taking in the remainder of the Southern Highlands including Exeter and Bundanoon. Whitlam lost the southern Wollongong suburbs of Berkeley, Cringila, Korongulla and Windang. These changes cut the Labor margin from 10.1% to 8.3%.
History
The seat of Whitlam was known as Throsby until 2016. Throsby was first created for the 1984 election, and has always been held by the ALP. It has always been won by the ALP by a large margin.
The seat was first won in 1984 by Colin Hollis. Hollis had previously been elected in Macarthur for one term in 1983. Hollis retired in 2001, and was succeeded by former ACTU President Jennie George. George held the seat from 2001 to 2010.
In 2010, Stephen Jones won the seat for the ALP upon Jennie George’s retirement. Jones has been re-elected four times.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Stephen Jones is not running for re-election.
- Carol Berry (Labor)
- Sharon Cousins (One Nation)
- Jamie Dixon (Greens)
- Cheryl Hinton (Citizens Party)
- Raymond Khoury (Libertarian)
- Paddy Moylan (Independent)
- Nathaniel Smith (Liberal)
Assessment
Whitlam is a reasonably safe Labor seat, alhough the redistribution slightly weakened Labor’s position.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Stephen Jones | Labor | 49,218 | 45.0 | -3.8 | 42.4 |
| Mike Cains | Liberal | 30,849 | 28.2 | +2.8 | 29.8 |
| Jamie Dixon | Greens | 11,779 | 10.8 | +1.6 | 10.4 |
| Colin Hughes | One Nation | 7,543 | 6.9 | +6.9 | 6.9 |
| Allan Wode | United Australia | 5,886 | 5.4 | -3.5 | 5.2 |
| Michael Wheeler | Liberal Democrats | 4,062 | 3.7 | +3.7 | 3.5 |
| Independent | 1.5 | ||||
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 5,637 | 4.9 | -2.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Stephen Jones | Labor | 65,683 | 60.1 | -0.8 | 58.3 |
| Mike Cains | Liberal | 43,654 | 39.9 | +0.8 | 41.7 |
Booths have been divided into three areas, along local government boundaries.
The ALP won large majorities of the two-party-preferred vote in Shellharbour (63.8%) and Wollongong (66.6%). The Liberal Party won 50.2% in Southern Highlands.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 11.1% in the Southern Highlands to 12.8% in Wollongong.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Shellharbour | 11.7 | 63.8 | 21,030 | 19.5 |
| Southern Highlands | 11.1 | 49.8 | 15,870 | 14.7 |
| Wollongong | 12.8 | 66.6 | 8,967 | 8.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.1 | 57.5 | 50,720 | 47.0 |
| Other votes | 11.2 | 57.3 | 11,388 | 10.5 |
Election results in Whitlam at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Probably why the Nat dropped put. I’m backing the ind here both lib and lab candidates are lame ducks and would lose in 2028 to a decent candidate from the opposing party.
If the ind makes the cut he will win on one of the majors preferences
Looks like the liberal candidate is trying to confirm beyond all doubt he is not a good choice.
Sportsbet has the ind at 26.00 . Ind gets ahead of libs it’s an ind win here.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/04/liberal-candidate-says-women-should-not-serve-in-adf-combat-roles-amid-range-of-controversial-views
Sounds like a good bet
Is there a market for “first major party candidate to get disendorsed mid-campaign”?
Saying women should not serve in combat is not controversial it was add policy for ages
@Darth Vader just because it was policy for ages previously doesn’t mean it’s relevant today. It’s very poor taste and Britton leaning into the culture wars reeks of the far right stink, but what do you expect from someone who was previously a UAP party member and candidate?
His views might resonate in places like Maranoa, Kennedy or Groom, but not Whitlam where it is still pretty moderate/progressive at its base of Dapto/Shellharbour. I’m thinking that Labor has better chances of retaining this now if these comments get more publicity which would be a bad look for Britton and the Liberals.
I don’t know if I’d call Dapto Shellharbour moderate/progressive with the near 80% No vote.
But still think the comments are wrong were uncalled for.
Agree Tommo, the seat in its current form is more of a swing type district. As a result, any shift away from an economic/cost of living message will play poorly here and will harm the Liberals chances of winning.
Whitlam is not necessarily a ‘progressive’ electorate. Though, Britton’s comments are out of touch and not something a reasonable person would say. The Liberals should dump him. I wouldn’t be surprised if more comes out!
@Mr Crown @Deb Maybe not as progressive as Wollongong or Newcastle but with the same token of the No vote for the voice, Whitlam also had a 62% for the SSM plebiscite. Definitely not conservative either and Britton just sticks out like a sore thumb.
Maybe Paddy Moylan might have a chance (even if it’s an outside chance) at winning Whitlam because of a lack of incumbent, anger directed at Labor over cost of living and offshore wind farms, the Liberal candidate being a lemon, and an increasing national appetite for third parties and independents.
The Liberals and Moylan will take away votes from Labor, but more crucially, I think Britton just tanked his campaign to the point where Moylan can overtake him in 2pp and win off Liberal preferences.
Does anyone know where Moylan lies ideologically and what his views are? So far all ik is that he opposes the offshore windfarms, wants more walkable cities and more development of smaller scale housing rather than high rises.
I’d say centrist but slightly right of the centre.
Hi Lurking Westie , love the name. Have a look at my facebook to see what I get up to.
I’m in the centre, which often means you get splinters but I genuinely am in the centre overall. Some things labor say I agree with and some things the liberals say I agree with. I oppose offshore wind as the community by and large don’t want it but I am pro renewables when the technology is ready, private enterprise is doing some great things but I don’t want the current community punished and forced into something that costs more. Ultimately the ref will see cheaper reliable power but it’s not there now. Nuclear worries me in terms of the plan and cost. Happy to be educated on it but the liberals seem to have buried it !
I make no comment on recent events but it is my intention to win and I have been on the ground every day for months. Not much money but I am running a local on the ground campaign.
Not here to spam so resume normal programming!
https://www.facebook.com/share/16bMpQgG56/?mibextid=wwXIfr
Darth Vader not unreasonable description of me yeah. Sorry couldn’t edit my post. Obviously I don’t believe labor has done a good job but I also feel the liberals are not taking the seat seriously.
Ben Britton’s Facebook is down. Maybe a sign of more to come?
Unconfirmed rumour Ben Britton has been stood down. Nathaniel Smith will be selected on Monday.
And his page is off the NSW Liberals’ website.
Liberal candidate disendorsed as per news.com.au
News Ltd reports that he’s been dumped. The new candidate is Nathaniel Smith.
At least they found common sense. He was an absolute joke to the party and a waste of resources for what would have been a winnable seat.
Nathaniel Smith, for anyone who isn’t aware, was the Liberal MP for Wollondilly in NSW Parliament from 2019-2023. He would have likely held on in 2023 had it not been for an ill-fated candidate forum in Bowral where he supported privatising Sydney Water and the backlash cost him the seat to independent Judy Hannan. Eitherway he was a very underperforming MP but the electorate is traditionally quite blue.
Throw the next chess piece on the board I suppose… Nathaniel Smith endorsed as the Libs candidate
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/the-liberal-party-has-dumped-the-nsw-candidate-for-the-seat-of-whitlam-over-claims-women-shouldnt-be-in-the-army/news-story/56d1ad1f60c5a4dafef9e9c815d04007
I think the Libs weren’t seeing this as a serious potential gain and hence they’ve just put in the lame duck as a placeholder and obviously polling has shown they could be competitive if they replaced the candidatr
I wonder how close and competitive Whitlam will be now that Britton is replaced with Smith and the Nationals dropping out of the race.
Also I didn’t expect to get a direct response from Moylan himself, what a pleasant surprise!
I guess Nathaniel Smith is a better candidate but due to his last minute nomination he could have trouble getting traction so I think Labor still retains a slight edge here.
There will definitely be a swing against Labor, probably at least 5% to make this a marginal seat going forward
I’ve noticed Paddy has been lurking around the Tally room as well as local social groups getting involved in discussions, very good to see he is continuing to engage with the community, not just in the highlands, but very active in the Shellharbour region also. He’s the only one i’ve seen doing more than just photo shoots at local fairs and businesses etc
Labor hold
What a bizarre decision. Replacing one controversial candidate with another controversial. candidate. Two bad choices in an unwinnable seat.
How much impact will this have on the Liberal Party vote in NSW?
Katrina will beat the endorsed liberal?
Katrina has withdrawn mick
The Liberals have very little time and few choices for a candidate.
Could Paddy Moylan make the 2CP? If he gets a bigger primary vote than One Nation and Libertarians and other minor parties, it could push him ahead of the Greens following distribution of preferences. Given the controversies of the Liberals, there could be a dip in their vote.
If paddy makes the 2cp he will win. But he won’t because the lib and labor vote is simply too strong. Onp and lbt will flow to the libsi can’t see them being pushed out. This will be close. But I think marginal labor retain. If labor return in minority they should have no problem winning it in 2028.
Ben Britton may be running Independent now
@Daniel He sure is and he’s just had a big sook about the Liberal party on 2GB this morning.
This sort of backstabbing and snipes at each other will only benefit Labor now that this whole thing had imploded. Bad decision all round by whoever approved of this former Palmer hack to run for what should’ve been a competitive seat.
Yeah, he is going independent. He also said on 2GB that there are Liberal factions, left and right, co-conspiring to undermine Peter Dutton’s tilt and don’t want him as PM.
Would’ve been smarter to just keep Britton and hope it all blew over.
I am surprised that he has not got himself endorsed by the Trumpets. It would seem a good fit.
Well he was a UAP candidate
A sign of monumental cowardice and weakness from Dutton and the Coalition. They’d have been better off defending the candidate’s right to free speech.
Replacement candidate nominated Monday is going the full Trump with Marxist indoctrination in schools as a big concern – the original candidate is staying on to run as an independent – fun times for the LNP
Well I’d say the lnp weren’t planning on this seat being in play and he was just a seat warmer, when the polling became close they decided to put in a serious candidate. Britton would never have won.