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Werriwa could swing hard against Labor (on primary votes) due to cost of living and mortgage stress as this is a mortgage belt. The Gaza issue would also be toxic for Labor since there’s a large presence of people with South Asian Muslim or Middle Eastern heritage.
The combined vote last election for minor right parties – UAP, LDP, ONP, was pretty insane at 23%. I don’t think it’ll be as high next time. The Greens could pick up voters disaffected by the Gaza issue or are looking for a third party alternative.
From what I remember the UAP and Liberal Democrats (now Libertarians) each polled above 10% based on the redistribution. If a lot of that goes to the Liberals, they could come very close to winning here (or win but it’s increasingly unlikely due to Palestine).
I’d outright favour the Libs here if it weren’t for Gaza.